Mizzou’s path to a playoff spot is still there, but it’s getting harder to find

Success is a booster of imagination. Win consistently, and the belief in accomplishing higher goals gets stronger.

Through seven games, Mizzou inspired imagination within its fanbase. At 6-1, trips to the SEC title game and College Football Playoff were fun aspirations for a team that started the season unranked. What could Mizzou do? What more was there to achieve?

Conversely, failure puts a damper on imagination, and that’s exactly what happened after Saturday, when the Tigers fell to the Commodores 17-10.

The loss felt a little different than the one to Alabama: with two defeats before Halloween, Mizzou’s College Football Playoff hopes took a sizable hit, and MU’s margin for error going forward is almost non-existent. Plus, starting quarterback Beau Pribula will be out for an extended period of time with an ankle injury, placing a heavy onus to succeed quickly on the shoulders of Matt Zollers, a true freshman who will make his first career start against No. 3 Texas A&M next week.

What to think about the rest of the season? Talking to Mizzou fans in downtown Nashville after Saturday’s game, this reporter sensed a heavy sense of dread that couldn’t be drowned out by the sound of cover bands and the taste of alcohol.

So, how should you feel about the state of Mizzou? What is there to look forward to? Let’s start with the immediate reactions after the game.

Why last Saturday stung

Mizzou kept giving itself chances to win Saturday’s game. The Tiger defense quelled a red-hot Commodore offense for most of the game, and on the other side, Mizzou made a pair of trips to the red zone.

In suboptimal circumstances, Zollers looked the part of a Power 4 quarterback.

But those opportunities were often squandered. The two red zone trips yielded a missed 29-yard field goal by Robert Meyer and the fatal run stuff on fourth-and-goal that injured Pribula.

On the game’s final play, Zollers hailed Mary, appropriate since the receiver on the play, Kevin Coleman Jr., went to high school at St. Mary’s in St. Louis. Mary didn’t answer the prayer in this case: Coleman caught the ball inches short of the goalline as time expired.

If Fifth Down rules applied, and helmets crossing the goalline were enough for a touchdown, Coleman would have been ruled in. But the lunacy of that fateful afternoon in 1990 didn’t carry over to the present day, and Coleman Jr. was short by inches.

On the bright side, Mizzou was right there. On the dark side, Mizzou was right there. As for Mizzou’s postseason hopes, those reside in another dark side.

The postseason implications

Mizzou has lost control of both its SEC championship and College Football Playoff destiny.

The Tigers are not mathematically eliminated from SEC title contention, but with six teams having one or zero conference losses (two of which have head-to-head tiebreakers over MU), their chances of getting to Atlanta are minute.

Shifting the focus to a CFP appearance, which is still very much in play, the Tigers may need to win out to have a viable case for an at-large berth. Failing to win out would leave Mizzou shy of a signature win to make up for more losses than other at-large contenders.

A big reason Alabama, South Carolina and Ole Miss had at-large cases last season at 9-3 was that they had at least one signature win. Even though Mizzou had the same record at the end of the regular season, it didn’t have a single win over a Power 4 team that entered the postseason at 8-4 or better.

Even if the Tigers finish 9-3 this season, they’ll likely have only one win over an AP-ranked team, which would be either Texas A&M or Oklahoma. But the Sooners already have two losses, so the magnitude of that win might not be as great as beating Alabama or Vanderbilt. A resume absent a signature win might put them behind other multi-loss teams with signature wins or one-loss teams with a weaker schedule.

Would a 9-3 SEC team that misses the conference title game get in over an 11-2 ACC team that loses the conference title game? This scenario popped up last season, and the committee took 11-2 SMU over the aforementioned gaggle of 9-3 SEC teams.

But in August, the committee announced that strength of schedule would be more of a factor this season. Whether they stick to their words or not will likely depend on how strong the 11-2 records are versus the 9-3 records.

Again, that’s fully hypothetical. An upset win over Texas A&M could put Mizzou on a much clearer path to the playoff, and by season’s end, the Tigers may not need to worry about how many other three-loss teams are vying for an at-large spot if they play well enough. But there is another future hypothetical that has a little more proof from past results.

Potential legacy of Mizzou football 2025

Mizzou might just be the team that can’t win the big one. The Tigers have lost their two toughest games of the season, both of which were winnable. Each time Mizzou hits a potential launch point into a new plateau, the Tigers fall short.

Vanderbilt, now 7-1 for the first time since 1941, is a perfect example of sustained imagination’s effect. With “College GameDay” in Nashville for the second time ever, VU fans flocked to the set on Wyatt Lawn, fueled by the prospect of the sport’s most famous talk show speaking highly about their team.

Instead of pulling an all-nighter to study, many Vanderbilt students sacrificed sleep to camp out on the lawn starting Friday afternoon. There were students wrapped in blankets, people holding up signs with silly messages and sons resting on the shoulders of fathers who probably didn’t think this day would ever happen again.

Vanderbilt — their Vanderbilt — had instilled a sense of imagination in its fanbase that hadn’t existed like this before.

College football’s eternal doormat, the runt of the SEC’s original litter, had earned time in the national spotlight. It was fun. For the first time in forever, Vanderbilt football had something big to look forward to.

Mizzou had a chance to spoil the fun and put the national spotlight on Columbia. That didn’t happen. Similar things can be said about Alabama, the only other team to beat Mizzou. The Crimson Tide have bounced back in a major way from last season’s disappointing 9-4 campaign, and quarterback Ty Simpson is a Heisman Trophy favorite. His team rolled into Memorial Stadium at 4-1, fresh off a big-time win over Georgia in Athens.

Mizzou had a chance to spoil the fun and put the national spotlight on Columbia. That didn’t happen. In a week we could be saying the same thing about Texas A&M, which is 8-0 for the first time since 1992.

There’s still plenty of time to tumble, which the Aggies did last season after a 7-1 start. But this time around seems different, as they just dominated LSU on the road at night, which is like winning a MarioKart race in Bowser’s Castle without falling into the lava.

But that would require the Tigers getting over a hump they seldom have in recent seasons: under Eli Drinkwitz, they have yet to beat a team that finished the season with a winning record in the SEC. Since 2014, they’re 3-20 against AP top-15 teams.

Following a magical 2023 campaign, Mizzou has continued knocking on the door of college football’s upper class. But the Tigers haven’t gotten in because they can’t beat anyone in that upper echelon.

This season’s not over yet

Mizzou remains in the CFP hunt thanks to two major traits of this year’s team.

One is the defense, which held a white-hot Commodores offense to season lows in points, total yards, total plays, yards per play and first downs. Outside of an 80-yard touchdown run by Makhilyn Young, VU’s other 25 carries went for just 56 yards. Diego Pavia’s Heisman Trophy campaign certainly wasn’t bolstered by a stat line of 149 total yards, one rushing touchdown and one interception.

Once again, Corey Batoon’s unit held up its end of the bargain.

The other beacon of hope is Zollers, who made several big-time throws to keep Mizzou afloat in the second half. His average depth of target (10.2) was sky-high largely out of necessity, as the Tigers needed to pick up a lot of yards in little time late in the fourth quarter.

But the true freshman looked poised and undaunted, able to pick up a trio of fourth-down conversions with his arm and more positive yards with his legs. If Zollers can improve upon Saturday’s performance, the future will get a little brighter.

Mizzou’s season is not over. The path to a CFP appearance simply got tougher. Feelings of frustration over another potentially good, yet not great, season are understandable.

But to be fully mired in the morose misses the positive aspects of this season, and this team. They are keeping the Tigers in the CFP picture.

Copyright 2025 Columbia Missourian