Which college football games could affect Mizzou’s CFP chances this weekend?

At 6-2, Mizzou might need some help to make the College Football Playoff.

Along with the Tigers winning at least three of their final four games, teams ahead of them will likely need to lose for them to rise in the rankings. Teams in other conferences beating each other up will dent the resumes of non-conference champions, which would be good news for SEC teams with at-large hopes.

By contrast, a scenario in which four ACC teams finish with at least 10 wins might be bad news for 9-3 SEC squads.

In a season that has resembled the befuddling 2007 campaign, Mizzou might need a 2007-style shakeup among top-10 teams to vault back into the CFP picture. For example, the main reason why LSU and Ohio State made it to the BCS national title game in ‘07 despite suffering upset losses in November was that teams in front of them kept losing.

Over the final three weeks of the season, Kansas, Mizzou and West Virginia all fell from the top two, clearing the way for LSU and Ohio State to play for the championship.

With the Tigers off this week, the focus can shift to other games that can impact Mizzou’s season. These games are ranked in tiers of importance to MU which, once again, will wish for chaos.

Tier 1: Mizzou’s future opponents

Mississippi State at Arkansas (Saturday, 3 p.m., SEC Network)

These teams are a combined 0-8 in SEC play, but their records are a tad misleading. Three of MSU’s four losses have been by one possession to ranked SEC teams, including last week’s heartbreaker against Texas in overtime that featured the Bulldogs squandering a 17-point lead in the second half.

Arkansas, meanwhile, combined for 108 points against Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas A&M. The Razorbacks got stymied against an elite Auburn defense last week, but the Bulldogs have allowed at least 30 points in each of their three losses.

No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee (Saturday, 6:30 p.m., ABC)

Both teams have two losses, and OU’s win over Michigan in Week 2 represents the only win over a currently-ranked team between the Sooners and Volunteers. An Oklahoma victory would benefit Mizzou, as the magnitude of a hypothetical win over the Sooners would largely depend on how good they are.

Tier 2: Games that could shake up the SEC title race

No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas (Saturday, 11 a.m. on ABC)

The Commodores will be playing their first-ever road game as a top-10 team this weekend. If they beat Texas, then take care of business against Auburn and Kentucky, there’s a real chance Vanderbilt could enter Neyland Stadium in the final week of the regular season having already clinched a spot in the SEC title game.

On the other side, this weekend begins a daunting crusade for the Longhorns, as three of their final four games are against Vanderbilt, Georgia and Texas A&M.

No. 5 Georgia at Florida (Saturday, 2:30 p.m. on ABC)

Georgia has dominated the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in recent years, as the Bulldogs have won the last four matchups by an average of 21.5 points. We’ll see if the interim coach boost that UCLA, Arkansas, Virginia Tech and UAB experienced this season has the same effect on Florida, which is now led by wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales after Billy Napier was fired last week.

South Carolina at No. 7 Ole Miss (Saturday, 6 p.m., ESPN)

The Rebels almost let another late lead slip away against Oklahoma last week, but a late surge brought Ole Miss to 7-1. While South Carolina’s offense has been abysmal this season (No. 127 in total yards per game), the Gamecocks nearly upset Alabama last week.

Tier 3: Potential chaos outside the SEC

No. 10 Miami at SMU (Saturday, 11 a.m., ESPN)

The Hurricanes tallied their annual baffling loss a couple of weeks ago against Louisville. But recent history says that they’re due for at least one more: will it happen against SMU, which had its three-game win streak snapped last week against red-hot Wake Forest on a buzzer-beating field goal? Or will the ‘Canes beat their old offensive coordinator en route to a 7-1 record?

No. 13 Texas Tech at Kansas State (Saturday, 2:30 p.m., FOX)

This game has become a lot more interesting in recent weeks. Not only has Kansas State won three of its last four games after starting 1-3, but Texas Tech suffered its first loss of the season to Arizona State on Oct. 18. The Red Raiders will have starting quarterback Behren Morton back from a leg injury this Saturday, but backup Will Hammond, who’d filled in nicely for Morton, was lost for the season last week with a torn ACL.

No. 15 Virginia at California (Saturday, 2:45 p.m., ESPN2)

Virginia is 7-1 for the first time since 2007, and the Cavaliers have been living on the edge lately, winning each of their last four games by one possession. They’ll be making their first (and only) trip out west for a clash with Cal, which is still technically in the ACC title race with only two conference losses.

No. 16 Louisville at Virginia Tech (Saturday, 2:30 p.m., CW Network)

Louisville is the only FBS team outside of the top 10 with a win over a team in the top 10, defeating Miami in Coral Gables two weeks ago. That could prove valuable if the Cardinals are in a bottleneck along the CFP bubble. But Blacksburg is never an easy place to play, and Virginia Tech is fresh off a double-overtime win over Cal.

No. 17 Cincinnati at No. 24 Utah (Saturday, 9:15 p.m., ESPN)

In yet another season of the Big 12 being a revolving door at the top, Cincinnati has surpassed many outside expectations and is 5-0 in conference play. Utah has rebounded from each of its two losses with dominant wins; plus, this will be UC’s first true road game against a ranked opponent since Oct. 4.

A Bearcats win would put Scott Satterfield’s crew in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 Championship Game. Then again, this is the Big 12, where up is down and left is right more often than not. These could all be moot points when the conference title game somehow features TCU and Arizona State, while Cincinnati finishes 8-4.

No. 23 USC at Nebraska (Saturday, 6:30 p.m., NBC)

Like Oklahoma and Tennessee, the Trojans and Cornhuskers have two losses apiece. USC was held to under 30 points for the first time all season last week in a loss to Notre Dame, while Nebraska survived a second-half comeback from Northwestern to escape with a win. The Cornhuskers have won consecutive one-possession games for the first time since 2019.

Tier 4: Potential (improbable) chaos

No. 12 Notre Dame at Boston College (Saturday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN)

The Irish should take care of business as four-touchdown favorites against the 1-7 Eagles. But a third loss for Notre Dame could spell doom, as it could finish the season without a win over a single ranked team if USC stumbles down the stretch. After Boston College, the Irish’s upcoming games are against Navy, Pitt, Syracuse and Stanford. The undefeated Midshipmen could be ranked after this week, though, if they beat North Texas in Denton.

Purdue at No. 21 Michigan (Saturday, 6 p.m., Big Ten Network)

Michigan has bounced back from a blowout loss at USC with double-digit wins over Washington and Michigan State. Purdue, which is averaging under 20 points per game against Big Ten opponents, will have a tough test against a stout Wolverine defense.

West Virginia at No. 22 Houston (Saturday, 11 a.m., FS1)

The Cougars, which had the lowest preseason SP+ rating among all Big 12 teams, are 7-1 on the backs of Connor Weigman and a sturdy defense. Better yet, none of their final four games are against currently ranked teams, so the path to AT&T Stadium is clearer than most in the conference.

But the Big 12 has an established history of its lower-tier teams playing spoiler late in the season, even if it’s not extensive. It was West Virginia’s first year in the conference when unranked Baylor blew out No. 2 Kansas State in late November and knocked the Wildcats out of national title contention. The year before that (nearly to the day), unranked Iowa State beat No. 2 Oklahoma State.

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