Missouri Tigers face strong opponent with notable flaws in Alabama Crimson Tide

Since the late 2000s, consistent excellence has been achieved by a select few in college football.

Ohio State has won at least 75% of its games in all but one season since 2005. Dabo Swinney has also ... wait, never mind. Mike Gundy ... shoot, that’s a bad example, too. At least Boise State has ... sorry, the second half of this sentence got intercepted by Notre Dame.

The point is that maintaining excellence in college football is extremely difficult, and Alabama has been at the pinnacle for a long time. Under Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide became a tsunami that almost always drowned opponents, which brought expectations to levels hardly ever seen in sports.

Case in point: At the 2023 SEC men’s basketball tournament, an Alabama beat writer described the fan base as “miserable” following a football season in which the Crimson Tide went ... 11-2. The men’s hoops team losing in the Sweet 16 only added to the bitterness of the football team winning the Sugar Bowl by just 25 points.

The Crimson Tide aren’t as dangerous as they used to be, and their shortcomings have shown in several games this season. But at 4-1 with a top-10 ranking, Alabama is still one of the better teams in the sport, which was also the case during a disappointing 2024 campaign.

Roll(ing) Tide

Last season, the sky almost came crashing down in Tuscaloosa. In his first season as head coach, Kalen DeBoer felt his seat become a stove that was powered by vitriol from angry Alabama fans.

The root of the disaster was a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad record of ... 9-4.

At Alabama, expectations are as colossal as the sorority houses — failure to live up to the heights of Saban (and Gamma Phi Beta) resulted in unbridled anger from the fan base. DeBoer felt that wrath once more when Alabama was trounced by Florida State in its season opener.

Lucky for him, the Crimson Tide have won their past four games. After dominant wins over Louisiana Monroe and Wisconsin, Alabama avoided disaster by becoming the only team to win at Georgia since South Carolina in 2019. A loss would have dropped Alabama to 2-2 for the first time since 2003 and possibly out of the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2007. The Crimson Tide followed that up with a win over Vanderbilt.

A major part of their early success has been quarterback Ty Simpson. He’s gone down a road less traveled in recent years, but his journey has paid dividends.

One of the top quarterback recruits in the Class of 2022, Simpson sat behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe over his first three collegiate seasons. Despite his lower standing on the depth chart and offers to transfer elsewhere, Simpson stuck with the Crimson Tide. He has developed into one of the best quarterbacks in college football.

His 1,478 passing yards lead the SEC, and he’s done a remarkable job of combining volume with efficiency. He completed 41 of 46 passes against Louisiana Monroe and Wisconsin then outdueled Gunner Stockton and Diego Pavia in consecutive weeks. His interception against Vanderbilt was the first turnover Alabama had committed all season.

Part of what makes Simpson dangerous is that he has diced up opposing defenses with big-time throws down the field. On passes within the hashmarks between 10 and 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, Simpson has completed 22 of 27 passes for 400 yards and five touchdowns, according to Pro Football Focus.

That’s especially notable because it’s an area of the field Mizzou has struggled to defend at times this season. In their games against MU, Kansas’ Jalon Daniels and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers combined to go 6-for-6 for 90 yards and a touchdown.

Like Mizzou QB Beau Pribula, Simpson has exploited soft spots in opposing defenses, except he’s stretched the field a little more than Pribula has. Simpson has also provided solid value with his legs, as his ability to extend plays kept Alabama’s offense from bottoming out against Florida State.

Where Mizzou will be tested

On Saturday, MU’s secondary will face its toughest matchup of the season.

The most recognizable name in Alabama’s receiving corps is sophomore Ryan Williams, a top 2027 NFL Draft prospect who plays football like he’s listening to Sade on a loop. The smooth operator sizzles after the catch, often turning tackle attempts into circus acts with jukes and spins. His elite body control has also helped him secure highlight-reel receptions.

A major problem area, however, has been drops, as Williams is tied for the national lead with six. That included a sure touchdown on Alabama’s opening drive against Georgia, when a well-placed deep ball from Simpson bounced off Williams’ hands and fell incomplete. As a side note, he also can’t legally drink alcohol until February 2028, which might be more stunning than his drops.

The most productive wideout of the bunch has been Germie Bernard, who leads the Crimson Tide in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. The 6-foot-1 senior is also a tough customer to bring down, as he has the same number of yards after the catch as Williams.

Plus, Bernard blocks like his life is on the line, and his all-around efforts drew public praise from Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Elsewhere, Miami transfer Isaiah Horton has performed admirably (18 catches, 236 yards and three touchdowns) while tight end Josh Cuevas has become a reliable red-zone target for Simpson.

The rushing attack has struggled through much of Alabama’s first five games, although Jam Miller had 136 yards and a touchdown against Vanderbilt in his second game back from a collarbone injury. Alabama’s offensive line has been far better in pass protection than in run blocking, but its star left tackle made a nice contribution as a runner this past Saturday. A week after taking a screen pass 11 yards, Kadyn Proctor rumbled for a first down on a fullback dive late in the fourth quarter against Vanderbilt.

As a whole, Alabama converts in important situations. The Crimson Tide have scored on all but one of their trips to the red zone, while they have converted 52.9% of their third downs (No. 17 in FBS). They also control the clock well (33 minutes of possession per game), and their nine red-zone attempts allowed are tied for the second-fewest in the nation.

Where Mizzou can find success

The Tigers have gashed opponents with the run, and the Crimson Tide haven’t been very good at stopping it.

Florida State ran for 230 yards on Alabama in the season opener, and Georgia ran for 227 yards two weeks ago. The Bulldogs had eight carries of at least 10 yards, five of which went for at least 20 yards. Last week, Vanderbilt running back Sedrick Alexander broke loose for a 65-yard touchdown in the first quarter.

Alabama’s struggles defending the run boil down to words that were nonexistent under Saban: getting pushed around on the line of scrimmage and failing to set edges. On the contrary, Mizzou has done a lot of pushing around and edge-setting on both sides of the ball this season.

While the Crimson Tide offense has been money on third down, its defense can’t say the same. It has allowed opponents to pick up first downs on 42.9% of attempts, tied for the third-worst mark in the SEC. This could spell bad news against Mizzou, which leads the nation in third-down conversion percentage.

What should Mizzou expect?

The most difficult game of 2025 to date.

Kansas and South Carolina are formidable teams, but neither has played as well as Alabama so far. While the Crimson Tide have identifiable weak spots, they present high-level challenges on both sides of the ball. Plus, they have two straight wins over good SEC teams.

Whatever happens Saturday, this is the closest Alabama and Mizzou matchup on paper since MU joined the SEC. The Crimson Tide have been double-digit favorites in each of their five games against the Tigers, and they have proved their worth on the field each time. Alabama’s smallest margin of defeat over Mizzou since 2012 is 19 points.

This time around, however, the Crimson Tide are only favored by a few points. The TV show “SEC Nation” will be in town for the second time this season. Many eyes will be on Memorial Stadium, with a major opportunity ahead for Mizzou. The Tigers can skyrocket themselves into the thick of the College Football Playoff race with something that eluded them last season: a signature win that alters expectations for the better.

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