Women’s hoops update: NCAA Tournament projections for Missouri, Kansas & Kansas State
This year’s women’s NCAA Tournament was set to be historic for the Kansas City area.
The Missouri Tigers’, Kansas Jayhawks’ and Kansas State Wildcats’ women’s basketball teams were all on track to make the March Madness field in the same season for the first time — ever.
With the Midwest Regional headed to Wichita, as well, excitement was abundant for women’s hoops across the two states.
But now one of those programs is at risk of not making the cut.
Mizzou dropped to the bubble in the latest tournament bracketology released by ESPN on Friday.
Here is a breakdown of where each of the three programs stand a little over two weeks away from Selection Sunday.
Missouri
Less than two months ago, Missouri was off to one of its best starts in program history. Head coach Robin Pingeton’s squad was 12-2 after upsetting No. 1 South Carolina in the first game of SEC play and looked primed to be a force in the league.
Following that huge victory, the Tigers were projected as a 7-seed by ESPN’s Charlie Creme on Dec. 31. But since then, they’ve lost nine of their last 14 games, including a loss at home to Kentucky on Friday in which Pingeton held out star Aijha Blackwell, LaDazhia Williams, Kiyah Doroh and Skylah Travis for not meeting team “standards and expectations.”
The loss cost them. In Creme’s latest projections on Friday, Missouri moved from a 10-seed to one of the “last four in” on the bubble.
If the tournament were to start today and go by those projections, the Tigers would meet Boston College in a play-in game for a 12-seed. If they won, they’d be placed into the Wichita region of the bracket and face 5-seed Oregon in Bloomington, Indiana in a Round of 64 matchup.
The women’s tournament moved from 64 teams to having 68 with those play-in games this year, so under previous circumstances Mizzou wouldn’t make the field at this point.
Missouri has one game left in the regular season, at No. 15 Florida on Sunday, before competing in the SEC tournament, where the Tigers are currently pacing to be the eighth-seeded team. They’ll need to put up a fight on the road and win at least one or two games in the conference tournament to even be considered for the Big Dance at this point.
Kansas
Kansas was projected to finish dead last in the Big 12 in the preseason. Instead, the Jayhawks are having their best season in the conference this century, with a 10-5 record (19-6 overall).
As such, Kansas is projected to make its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2013.
The Jayhawks aren’t just set to make the field though; they keep boosting their position. The ESPN bracketology on Friday had Kansas bumped up to an 8-seed — the highest projection for the team all year — in the Spokane region.
If the tournament were to start today, the Jayhawks would face 9-seed South Dakota in the Round of 64 at Stanford. If they won, they’d be met with a daunting matchup against 1-seed Stanford.
With regular-season games remaining at No. 5 Baylor, at home against No. 11 Texas and at No. 20 Oklahoma, followed by the Big 12 tournament, Kansas will have plenty of chances to put itself in even better seeding position.
Kansas State
Similarly to Missouri, Kansas State has a significant dropoff from the early NCAA Tournament projections.
The Wildcats were the last team included in the selection committee’s first early reveal of the top 16 overall seeds on Jan. 27. That would have made them a 4-seed, hosting the first and second rounds of the tournament.
At that point in the season, Kansas State was 15-5 and ranked No. 25 in the AP poll. A month later, the Wildcats have lost four of their last seven and are 18-9.
In the latest tournament projections, Kansas State is an 8-seed in the Wichita region. If March Madness were to start today based on that bracketology, the Wildcats would face 9-seed South Florida in Louisville in the Round of 64. A win there would mean a matchup with 1-seed Louisville.
The Wildcats have a big chance to boost their seeding on the road at No. 20 Oklahoma Saturday. They’ll then play against West Virginia and at TCU before the Big 12 tournament. With star center Ayoka Lee averaging 23 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.1 blocks per game, it isn’t hard to see K-State’s path to a better seed.
