Revisiting our Mizzou football preseason predictions: Way better than you might think
The Missouri Tigers football team saw its 2020 season end draw to an unceremonious close as COVID-19 dealt one final blow to the Year of The Pandemic.
A coronavirus outbreak within the MU program forced a Music City Bowl cancellation just days before kickoff.
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz thus has some extra time to reflect on his team’s 5-5 season — one in which the Tigers blew nearly all expectations out of the water. Mizzou was predicted by many to finish sixth in the SEC East; it finished third. The Tigers’ over/under win total was set at 2.5; they doubled that.
So let’s revisit The Star’s five predictions and game-by-game picks.
Making predictions in 2020 is a fool’s game, but we did it anyway. And believe it or not, we did pretty well.
Let’s pull up those receipts and dive in.
1. SHAWN ROBINSON WILL START AT QUARTERBACK ... BUT CONNOR BALELAK WILL GET HIS SHARE OF ACTION
We can consider this half-credit, right? Shawn Robinson did indeed start the first two games of the season at quarterback. Then he was pulled the rest of the season in favor of Connor Bazelak, the SEC co-freshman of the year who shined in his first season as a college starter.
Bazelak passed for 2,366 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions. Along the way, he got a little more than “his share of action,” but the soul of the prediction was spot-on.
Who could’ve predicted Robinson would make the switch to safety by the end of the year? But this move is permanent. Robinson finished with more interceptions caught than thrown in 2020 — and that in itself is quite an accomplishment.
2. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ONE POSTPONEMENT OR ALTERATION TO MIZZOU’S SCHEDULE
We were technically right — we just underestimated the number of games that would need to be changed up. We’d assess as another case of half-credit.
Eight of Mizzou’s 11 games this fall were postponed or altered, including one cancellation. In the end, the Tigers’ initial 10-game SEC schedule looked nothing like how it actually played out.
Mother Nature even got involved when Hurricane Delta forced a road game at LSU to be moved to Columbia. But COVID prompted far more disruption as the Tigers saw some of their games rescheduled just days before kickoff.
3. MU’S DEFENSE WILL STEADY THE SHIP, KEEP UP ITS SUCCESS
Mizzou’s defense was feast or famine in 2020, at least in terms of point totals. The Tigers held Vanderbilt, Kentucky and South Carolina to 10 or less points, but they allowed more than 35 points to their other seven opponents.
Of course, context is necessary here. Point totals don’t tell the full story. You’ve got to factor in turnovers (three in the LSU game) and roster numbers (remember MU’s decimated defensive line?). It didn’t help that Mizzou faced some of the best offenses in the SEC in the likes of Alabama and Florida, to name a couple.
All of this said, the Tigers’ defense wasn’t quite as good as it was last year, so this prediction was off the mark.
4. MIZZOU WILL HAVE ONE OF THE BEST RUNNING BACK DUOS IN THE SEC
Larry Rountree III posted a superb season, rushing for 972 yards and 14 touchdowns. The senior team captain was the steady rock of the offense on his way to All-SEC honors. Rountree wraps up his Mizzou career as the most prolific rusher the program has seen.
Tyler Badie showcased his versatility — so dangerous on the wheel route — and was certainly a difference-maker on offense. The raw numbers weren’t quite there, though, and Badie was ineffective in some games.
5. NICK BOLTON WILL LEAD THE SEC IN TACKLES
Close, but wrong. The talented junior linebacker finished fifth in the SEC in tackles. He was on pace with Arkansas linebacker Grant Morgan, but a slower finish to the season meant Bolton didn’t quite catch him for the conference lead.
Bolton now heads to the NFL one year early. He was named to numerous All-SEC and All-America lists and will go down as one of the best linebackers in Mizzou history.
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
So this is where we were almost perfect. The Tigers finished 5-5. Their wins were against LSU, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. They lost to Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia and Mississippi State.
Our predictions had Mizzou finishing 4-6, probably a little better than others expected. The caveat, though, is that only our LSU game prediction was wrong. If you need a reminder (doubtful), Mizzou executed a perfect goal-line stop to deny those Tigers the victory.
The other nine games we predicted correctly.
Take a look:
Prediction: Alabama 34, Missouri 13. Actual score: Alabama 38, Missouri 19.
Prediction: Tennessee 30, Missouri 20. Actual score: Tennessee 35, Missouri 12.
Prediction: LSU 38, Missouri 23. Actual score: Missouri 45, LSU 41.
Prediction: Missouri 23, Kentucky 17. Actual score: Missouri 20, Kentucky 10.
Prediction: Florida 28, Mizzou 20. Actual score: Florida 41, Missouri 17.
Prediction: Missouri 28, South Carolina 24. Actual score: Missouri 17, South Carolina 10.
Prediction: Missouri 24, Vanderbilt 14. Actual score: Missouri 41, Vanderbilt 0.
Prediction: Missouri 24, Arkansas 17. Actual score: Missouri 50, Arkansas 48.
Prediction: Georgia 31, Missouri 23. Actual score: Georgia 49, Missouri 14.
Prediction: Mississippi State 27, Missouri 20. Actual score: Mississippi State 51, Missouri 32.