Moving on from recruiting misses, let’s evaluate Mizzou basketball’s roster, and needs

Monday was shaping up to be a momentous occasion for the Missouri Tigers. A pair of recruiting targets were about to announce their next steps, two guys who could potentially move the needle for Mizzou coach Cuonzo Martin’s men’s basketball program.

Instead, the Tigers swung and missed on both players.

Graduate transfer Justin Turner decided to stay put at Bowling Green. And five-star recruit Josh Christopher committed to Arizona State over Mizzou, Michigan and other schools.

Where does that leave Martin and the Tigers’ roster one day before the signing period starts opens on Wednesday?

Fortunately, Mizzou is set to bring back 88.4% of its points production from 2019-20. Only three players are gone from this past season’s opening roster: Reed Nikko exhausted his eligibility, while Tray Jackson and Mario McKinney Jr. both transferred.

So there’s some optimism here. Another offseason of training should lead to improvement across the board, especially for Dru Smith, Jeremiah Tilmon, Mark Smith and others entering their senior year.

While the Tigers weren’t competing for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament late in the season, they were getting closer. After a 2-7 start to SEC play, the Tigers won five of their last nine before the coronavirus pandemic prompted cancellation of the SEC tournament.

Mizzou’s fortunes next season depend in part on three players who are checking out their potential in the 2020 NBA Draft: Tilmon, Xavier Pinson and Mitchell Smith. They aren’t expected to be drafted, but going overseas to earn a paycheck is an option for any of them. There’s also uncertainty around the draft process itself, considering the NBA season is currently suspended. Teams aren’t allowed to conduct workouts with draft-eligible players, which figures to affect how they’re evaluated.

In assessing Mizzou’s roster for the 2020-21 season, we can start by looking at each position and determining needs. As of now, it appears the Tigers will need help on the wings and some go-to scoring punch.

Mizzou also needs some long-distance assistance after enduring a subpar three-point shooting season. The Tigers shot just 29.7% from behind the line this year. Mark Smith was their only player who shot better than 30% from outside the arc (minimum of five attempts).

The Tigers have 11 scholarship players at the moment, including those who’ve declared for the NBA Draft but could return. That leaves Mizzou two under the limit right now, meaning Martin has some flexibility.

Here’s a positional breakdown of the MU roster. All stats are from the 2019-20 season.

Point guard

This is arguably Mizzou’s most stable position thanks to Pinson and Dru Smith, the team’s two leading scorers last season.

Dru Smith was the team’s rock, starting all 31 games — the only Tiger to play in all 30, let alone start. He led them in points, assists, minutes, steals and free-throw percentage. And he wasn’t too shabby on defense, either.

Pinson turned into the go-to scorer Mizzou was missing for most of its season. He averaged 18.9 points per game in the Tigers’ final nine outings. There’s a chance he remains in the draft, but returning to Mizzou for another season of conditioning and experience could boost his pro prospects.

Both guys are starting-caliber players and could fight for an All-SEC nod next season. Their styles complement each other well, with Pinson the quick, speedy guard as Smith relies more on his change-of-pace abilities.

Wings

*denotes walk-on player

Wing and combo guard are arguably the two spots where Mizzou could use the most help. Having someone who could score and take the burden off Pinson or Dru Smith would be a plus.

Mark Smith can be that guy, though he’s been hampered by injuries the past two seasons. He’s Mizzou’s best three-point shooter, but he can be streaky at times. He’s shown an underrated handle at point guard, and as a senior he’ll likely need to step it up even more.

Brown and Pickett are both are solid. Brown had a solid freshman season and obviously impressed Martin as he started 26 games. Pickett was at a similar level and showed he could score when driving to the basket. But he couldn’t always get it going, which bogged down the offense at times.

Watson fell short of expectations. He had a strong finish to his freshman season but couldn’t put together any consistency as a sophomore. He had a few outings where he got hot from three — he set a Mizzou Arena record one night — but struggled overall, shooting just 28.1% from deep.

Forwards

As long as Tilmon returns from the draft — which isn’t guaranteed — Mizzou should feel pretty good at forward. It would be pretty devastating if he gets hurt again for an extended period of time, but you can’t build a roster around fear.

Mitchell Smith will get his share of playing time after making some impressive improvements last season. He plays on the perimeter a lot and is willing to shoot the three, but his 6-foot-10 frame and rebounding prowess means he’ll be used more as a forward.

It’s early, but Braun should be the Tigers’ leading contender as Tilmon’s backup at center. The former walk-on made strides last season while playing in 24 games.

Behind Braun are a couple of towers. Wilmore (7-foot-3) and Okongo (7 feet) are projects, but either could see the court when Tilmon and/or Braun is in foul trouble. As a freshman and the lone newcomer to the roster thus far, Wilmore will probably work mostly behind the scenes next season.

Recruiting

As recruiting intensifies, Mizzou remains in the race for Michigan transfer David DeJulius. MU, Iowa State, Marquette and Cincinnati are all dueling for his services. DeJulius would need to sit out a year wherever he lands, but after that he’d have two years of eligibility left.

There’s also a chance that the NCAA transfer rules will change in the next month. According to D1 baseball, the NCAA Division I Council is considering enacting a one-time transfer waiver. A vote is due May 20. If the waiver measure passes, the transfer portal would open to more players.

The Tigers could certainly use some help, especially when it comes to identifying a third scorer. Late in the season, Mizzou would’ve benefited from having a reliable third option alongside Pinson and Dru Smith.

Fortunately, Martin has time to build up for 2020-21. The roster as it currently sits will likely see changes in the months ahead, especially since he still has those two scholarship spots available with which to fill some holes

Souichi Terada

The Kansas City Star

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