Mizzou Mailbag: Dreaming big, Pinson’s player comp and how does MU finish the season?

Last week, in the second installment of the Mizzou Mailbag, I wrote with a twinge of optimism as I traveled back to freezing rain in Missouri (from 80-degree weather in Louisiana).

After all, the Tigers were coming off a win against Arkansas and showed a pulse against LSU on the road. At the time, that felt worthy of pointing out in what looked like a lost season.

Then Mizzou goes and defeats No. 13 Auburn and Ole Miss for its first SEC winning streak this season. So, where does that leave fans? Probably a lot more optimistic. I think some people are going a little crazy with the expectations, but I can’t blame you.

But let’s get into it. Thanks again for all your questions and participation. If you want to ask anything, my email is sterada@kcstar.com or hit me up on Twitter (DMs are also open).

This is essentially the mailbag equivalent of a “talk about” question, which the sports journalism industry is divided on. Which it shouldn’t be, “talk about” isn’t even a question.

But I digress (and kid, mostly). Let’s try to explain this Mizzou basketball team.

Of the recent stretch, it feels like the Tigers are adjusting to play with who they have. It’s a solid mindset. MU coach Cuonzo Martin mentioned this. Instead of focusing on who they don’t have — Mark Smith and Jeremiah Tilmon — they game plan for who is available to play. Little glass half-full action instead of half-empty.

Obviously, Xavier Pinson is in one of those stretches where you just shake your head watching him — which, hey, is exactly what he did on his way to a career-high 32 points against Mississippi. He has that athleticism you want and if you give him a little daylight, next thing you know, he’s right at the basket.

While Pinson’s been great and should get a ton of credit, I think the glue really holding this recent stretch together is Dru Smith. With a fully healthy squad, we didn’t see much of Smith and Pinson together. There would be stretches of them alongside each other, but nothing like what we’ve seen recently.

I think Smith is the perfect complement to Pinson. Not just from a pace angle, where Pinson’s quickness works great with Smith’s change-of-speed style. But Smith is a capable three-point shooter, meaning he stretches the floor for Pinson to work his defender off the dribble. Smith is also smart enough to get out of Pinson’s way when necessary. But at the same time, when teams are pressing and Pinson needs a little help, Smith is right there for him.

Elsewhere, guys are really flourishing in their role. Martin’s called Javon Pickett a “garbage man” and he really does pick up the trash while doing everything else. He also sets the tone well in terms of driving the ball and he’s shown a little extra when it comes to passing the ball.

While the forwards are missing Tilmon, the cast of Mitchell Smith, Reed Nikko and even Parker Braun have stepped it up in different games. Kobe Brown and Tray Jackson are working through some rookie kinks, but you can tell they have the talent to be contributors. I know fans aren’t thrilled with Torrence Watson (and I’m sure he’s the first person to agree), he’s at least picked it up defensively. He can use a few more three-pointers, but that’s why he’s earned playing time.

One point that sticks out to me is how sustainable this offense feels. When the Tigers exploded offensively to beat Florida, that came off the efforts of unsustainable three-point shooting. Once the shooting regressed to the mean, Mizzou struggled and went on its losing streak.

But with Pinson, Dru Smith, Pickett and others consistently driving the ball, it feels like the Tigers are taking it on themselves to produce offensively. Instead of saying “well, sometimes shots don’t fall,” Mizzou’s taken a different approach and controlling what it can.

Sure, you’re not going to make every tough layup, but you’re forcing the defense to react. That attacking nature can lead to free throws, drop-offs to the forwards for dunks or close-range layups. That’s what feels different about this recent stretch.

I’ve asked every player I can the past couple games: What’s different, what’s changed through this recent stretch? Based on their answers, it seems like nothing. There’s no specific moment where some flip switched or anything.

This is a long-winded way of saying you can easily tell this team is playing with confidence. It’s poetic they’re led by Pinson then, who, by all accounts, is the last player to be lacking confidence on this team.

There hasn’t been much update in terms of Mark Smith or Tilmon so far. Neither went through pregame warmups against Mississippi, which is worrisome this late in the season.

While Mark Smith was available to play against Arkansas, he didn’t see a minute. Then it’s been a few games where he didn’t even go through warmups. Tilmon played 12 minutes against Texas A&M but had an apparent setback with his foot. I don’t think the door is closed on either coming back, but obviously, time’s running out.

I’ve seen a few comments worrying about the offense if and when the duo comes back, but I wouldn’t be too worried if I were a Mizzou fan. You can plug-and-play Mark Smith because he’s mostly a spot-up three-point shooter. He’s likely taking some of Watson or Pickett’s minutes once he makes his return. I doubt you’re limiting minutes for Pinson at this point. For at least the first few games in Mark Smith’s return, he’s probably coming off the bench to ease him back into game action, too.

For Tilmon, I’ve been mildly surprised how much it seems people are worried about his return. Yeah, Mizzou ran a lot of offense through him at the beginning of the season, but obviously they’ve had to adjust in recent weeks. Once he’s back, he’s going to get some post touches, but I doubt it will be an overwhelming amount of possessions.

It’s not as if the Tigers aren’t posting up Nikko for a few possessions per game. There’s been a few times where they throw the ball to Nikko or even Braun and let them operate against the opposing big man. If Tilmon returns, you’re upping those looks a little more, which I don’t think necessarily takes away from Pinson, Dru Smith or others that much.

One thing I was surprised about (and so was Tilmon) was the double teams Texas A&M threw at him the moment Tilmon got a post touch. There were two times I immediately noticed how Tilmon passed out of the double team, the ball went around the arc and the Tigers found a wide open three-pointer. The forward was out for a month at that point, easing back into seeing the court, and the Aggies still threw a double team at him the moment they could.

Martin’s mentioned this clearly in the past couple months: Even when Tilmon struggles, he’s still such a massive part of the game plan opponents have to work around. It’s a great point and teams are weary of facing him, even when he’s not completely back.

At this point with so little of the season left, I don’t think either Mark Smith or Tilmon are going to be major focal points of the offense. They still need to be eased back into game action. But if they’re both back by the SEC Tournament, I’m feeling great if I were a fan.

As one of my friends who’s a Mizzou grad (and there are so many Mizzou journalism folks), I’m told you should always be weary with the Tigers. But a little excitement never hurt anyone, especially with this recent play reviving what looked like a dead season.

I think when you’re talking realistic possibilities, you’re looking at an NIT berth. The last five games allow for there to be some wins which can up the record. A win or two in the SEC Tournament can put them firmly above .500 with a chance to sneak into the field.

Let’s look at this game by game:

At first glance, all five of those games appear winnable to me. Considering the sheer amount Mizzou has been on the road, it’s a bit surprising to see three road games left compared to two home games. But that’s what happens when you play at West Virginia in the Big 12/SEC Challenge.

Before the Mississippi game, I thought a 4-2 finish was looking like a realistic best-case scenario. That means if Mizzou finishes 3-2 from here, that lands them at 8-10 in the SEC. That should keep them out of the bottom four of the conference standings, meaning they get a bye to miss Wednesday’s opening round of the SEC Tournament.

After starting 2-7 in the SEC, that’s a 6-3 finish, which is impressive. Doesn’t mean they’ll get there, but there’s still a chance.

This late in the season, every game looks like one fans should be watching closely if they’re hoping for something a little more. Personally, I’m extremely curious to see how they perform on the road in the next week.

Mizzou faces two winnable games in Arkansas and Vanderbilt on the road. But at the same time, the Tigers have struggled immensely away from Mizzou Arena. Martin says you have to “steal” road games and if Mizzou can pull off 2-0 or at least a 1-1 stretch against those teams, you’re looking really strong in the final three games of the season.

From there, it’s anyone’s guess how they fare in the SEC Tournament. I wrote about this last week, but the prevailing thought from those around the team is that Mizzou can still make a run at Nashville. If the Tigers finish strong and add Mark Smith and Tilmon into the fold, that’s a team few in the SEC want to face.

In my totally unscientific, unqualified assessment, I see shades of Russell Westbrook in Pinson. Not to say Pinson’s about to go become a future NBA MVP or anything like that, but their play styles are similar, at least in my opinion.

Recently, I want to say Pinson’s been a lot more under control compared to Westbrook’s erratic style. But in trying to convince the readers of this comp, I think there’s a sort of exciting, reckless abandon to Pinson’s drives that reminds me a bit of Westbrook. They’re also both quick, athletic guards who are loads of fun to watch.

I can very easily be swayed from this player comp to someone who fits better for Pinson, but that’s someone who popped in my mind immediately.

The similarities aren’t all there, though. Westbrook, like many other NBA guards, is built to the brim. Pinson needs to put on weight to play at the next level. He’s listed as 6-foot-2, 170 pounds on the Mizzou website. He’s undersized, but if he can put on some more weight on that frame, he’s athletic enough to play at the next level.

As far as Pinson’s ceiling, I think saying it’s Westbrook-level is wishful thinking considering what Westbrook has accomplished in the NBA. Pinson has pro potential because of his athleticism, but it really comes down to how much work he puts in the next few years. He can be an NBA contributor, but that remains to be seen.

After some solid games recently, Jackson took a step back against Mississippi as he was the last player off the bench and only saw five minutes. Braun mostly absorbed Jackson’s forward minutes as Braun played a career-high 24 minutes.

When it comes to any frustration, it sounds like the exact opposite actually. Martin and Jackson have both said the freshman forward has really embraced the coaching amid fluctuating playing time. Instead of complaining, it sounds like Jackson’s buying into the coaching staff and the team.

Obviously, the Detroit native has flashed his potential multiple times this season. I’ve heard Martin believes Jackson is one of his better pro prospects and fans see that, which is also why they want to see more of the freshman.

But it’s a process. But by all indications, it sounds like Jackson has trusted Martin and his teammates as he continues his adjustment to college ball.

Yeah, absolutely. If I were a fan, I’m ecstatic watching Pinson do his thing while there are plenty of role players alongside him. One of the biggest knocks of this Mizzou team was that it was missing a go-to scorer late in the game. Well, when you have a 6-foot-2 sophomore guard dazzling like he has recently, any of those questions are put to rest.

I’ve mentioned this a few times, but this team really is young. I think losing Reed Nikko is going to hurt once he runs out of eligibility. But aside from him, everyone is available to return next year. Of course, there are some questions about Tilmon going pro, but nobody has heard anything definitive on that front.

While Mizzou likely falls short of its preseason goal of the NCAA Tournament (though, yes, it’s not quite put to rest yet), it doesn’t take away from the last few games.

It takes a healthy dose of mental fortitude to bounce back in the past four games like the Tigers have. It would’ve been far too easy for Mizzou to fold at 10-12 and 2-7 in the SEC. But instead, the Tigers did the exact opposite.

That’s also a massive credit to Martin. He didn’t lose this team when a lesser coach and culture likely calls it a finished season. Mizzou has a chance to save this season, though there’s still one final burst to see what the Tigers have left.

What tourney are we talking about?

SEC Tournament, yeah, absolutely. If the Tigers keep trending up and miss out on Wednesday to earn a bye, they’re a couple wins away from shocking the conference. NIT? That’s still on the table barring a few more wins, sure. NCAA Tournament? Well, once again, let’s not get ahead of ourselves now.

But postseason talk is still far too early. Fans should want to see a few more wins to finish the regular season before looking that ahead. There’s still a lot of hoops to be played.

This story was originally published February 20, 2020 at 5:00 AM.

Souichi Terada

The Kansas City Star

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