Mizzou Mailbag: Tilmon’s injury, who’s improving and how far can MU go in Nashville?
Week two of the Mizzou Mailbag is here and not too much has happened in the football world since National Signing Day. But Mizzou basketball has been a different story. The Tigers won an overtime bruiser against Arkansas and fought tough against LSU, falling just short of an upset bid Tuesday.
What a change a week makes, huh? Mizzou was coming off two uninspired road games at South Carolina and Texas A&M, and it felt like fans were about to check out for the final time this season. Maybe there’s some Rally For Rhyan magic at play: the Tigers have since made a complete flip and delivered two thrilling games. (And fans donated $80,000 during the annual Rally For Rhyan charity game for pediatric cancer research — a great win for everyone involved.)
Mizzou looked like a completely different team against Arkansas and LSU. Long after Tuesday’s game, a few LSU scribes were chatting about Mizzou’s recent games and were confused by some of the Tigers’ blowout losses.
MU coach Cuonzo Martin and his team showed a little something on the road, and I think that means a lot. How much? We’ll see. Just like anything else with this team, it comes down to consistency. If Mizzou falls back into some of its old habits and gets “out-toughed,” all that goodwill disappears immediately.
But otherwise, let’s get to it. Thanks again for all your participation. If you want to ask a question about Mizzou sports, tweet them at me or send them over to sterada@kcstar.com.
I won’t lie and say I didn’t initially hear the murmurs in the immediate few weeks after Tilmon’s injury that his Mizzou career was over. I was skeptical then and was kind of right when Tilmon made his return for the Texas A&M game.
Initially, I heard that Tilmon’s stress fracture in his left foot was about a six-week injury. Tilmon came back in about four, so it seemed like he was a little ahead of schedule. I think the worrisome part of his injury is that it flared up again ahead of the Arkansas game last Saturday.
Just the day before, Tilmon was speaking about his rehab and what he was looking to work on as he was getting back into the flow with his team. Then he was deemed unavailable and didn’t go through warmups following an apparent setback.
I’m not going to speculate about whether Tilmon is done at Mizzou because I don’t believe even he knows for certain as of now. From what I’ve heard, he just wants to get healthy, especially since he clearly has pro aspirations. Martin said Tilmon’s injury is back to a week-to-week situation, which is concerning considering there are only so many of those weeks left.
When I sat down with him before this season for an interview, I floated the idea of playing overseas as a means to make money and continue competing in basketball. I think Tilmon deep down has considered this, but he wasn’t willing to admit it to me. He’s clearly making the NBA his top priority and main goal. And, honestly, good for him. He’s still young and full of potential — he should absolutely shoot for the league.
In terms of Tilmon’s pro prospects, I know there are some around the NBA who like him and see potential. But it sounds like he still needs at least some sort of breakout or positive step forward — something many have been waiting on for the past couple of seasons. His Mizzou career is by no means over, but it’s an interesting question with about a month left in the season.
Whatever comes next for him, Tilmon is a great kid and many on the Mizzou beat would no doubt agree. The Tigers are a much better team with him than without, and fans should hope he can make a speedy recovery.
Xavier Pinson’s been great recently, and his attacking style is exactly what Mizzou needed with Mark Smith out the past couple weeks. He’s hit or miss, including a sometimes erratic style that leads to inefficient shots but a ton of free throws.
I’ve written about Tray Jackson — the Detroit native — quite a bit the past couple games. He’s finally stringing together some consistency. While Kobe Brown’s been a solid contributor from Day 1 in the starting lineup, fans always looked at Jackson as the MU freshman with the most upside (Mario McKinney Jr., too, but he’s obviously gone). Jackson projects as one of Mizzou’s better pro prospects and we’re seeing why now.
Looking at the roster, both Reed Nikko and Mitchell Smith have made huge strides. Mizzou relies on Nikko for a post-up here or there and he’s really efficient when he is shooting the ball.
Mitchell Smith has been a pleasant surprise. When he didn’t see the floor in the Wofford game — Martin instead went with Parker Braun — I questioned Smith’s role on the team. But ever since the Temple win, when he started for the first time this season, his size and skills have been impressive. He’s not bulky by any means, but his 6-foot-10 frame is lengthy and he poses some defensive flexibility.
When people speak about progression, I think they mostly look at Torrence Watson, Javon Pickett and maybe Mark Smith. I understand the frustrations with Watson, whose best skill (three-point shooting) has been a major disappointment.
Some were high on him after a strong finish to last season, but he’s rarely put it all together this year. But the thing is … Watson’s only a sophomore. If he were a junior, I’d be more worried about him. Watson’s the type of guy who I think needs another Chicago State-type game where he’s hot and he can build off that performance. It’s been a rough few weeks for him as his shots just aren’t falling.
In terms of Pickett and Mark Smith, I’m probably a bit higher on them than others. Pickett especially has impressed on the defensive end, which is a bit harder to point out than counting stats. Mark Smith’s injury issues are rough, and I feel for him. His ability to space the floor for the Tigers adds so much to their offense. His strength is a major asset on defense, and while he won’t create his own shot often, he’s shown a willingness at least to handle the ball occasionally.
A big point I feel like people forget about with this team is how young they are. They’re in a sneaky in-between spot, where they rely heavily on sophomores and juniors. They’re experienced enough to not make silly freshman mistakes. But at the same time, consistency is a major issue. Once again, if the same issues are present next year, this is a bigger deal. For now, I just think the Tigers’ killer instinct isn’t quite there yet, but it should come with time and experience.
The only player who’s out of eligibility after this year is Nikko. Everyone else is able to return. That’s why there’s little recruiting news right now — there are only so many open scholarships. If nobody on the team has improved by next year and it’s another lost season, fan restlessness will peak.
The vibe I get from this team is that they genuinely believe they can compete with anyone. And I’m inclined to believe them … as long as they don’t look flat and unmotivated, as they have in spurts this year. Also, and most importantly, there’s the health card at play.
Consider this: Mizzou defeated Arkansas and took No. 25 LSU nearly to the wire without two of its three best players. Guys like Dru Smith and Pinson stepped up in those games, but regardless, that’s impressive. If — and it’s still looking like a major if — Tilmon and Mark Smith are back and ready for the SEC Tournament, the Tigers could be a tougher out than what they’ve shown during conference play.
Of course, if Mizzou wants to sniff any kind of run, it needs to secure better seeding. Avoiding the 10-14 seeds in the SEC tournament and playing on Wednesday, is key. Just missing that first round goes a long way in terms of rest, depth and morale.
As of now, Mizzou has a chance to catch Mississippi and a slumping Arkansas. Going 0-2 against Texas A&M hurts, considering any tiebreaker goes to the Aggies. Earning a bye on the first day of the tournament isn’t out of the question, but Mizzou needs to string some wins together to do so.
If the Tigers do end up on the Wednesday slate, a best-case scenario is looking like a couple wins and making it to the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. If they climb up and miss the first day of the tournament, a couple wins isn’t out of the realm of possibility, depending on who they play. Of course, that’s if everything lines up right.
As of now, a realistic scenario looks like this: playing Wednesday, winning that first game, and then bowing out on the second day of the tournament. Much like last year. But there’s still enough regular season left for the Tigers to change that narrative.
Can you imagine asking that before the season? Nikko’s come a long way just this season alone, and it’s awesome to watch. His game-saving block on Anthony Edwards was one of the best “out of nowhere” moments of the season.
Nikko’s not going to be a game-changer every night, but he’s become a quality SEC role player. Even before this season, it seemed like he was set to be Tilmon’s backup. Sure, there were bound to be games in which he scored a little more in limited minutes, but the Tigers were never supposed to rely on him much.
Tilmon’s injury opened the door for Nikko and he’s performed better than I think many expected. He’s not the offensive focal point that Tilmon is, but Mizzou still relies on him for a few post-ups per game. Nikko’s an efficient shooter, too, and Mizzou can use as much of that as possible. And while he’s not asked to create his own shot often, he knows his place on the floor for easy dump-off passes that often lead to buckets.
If Tilmon leaves for the pros and when Nikko exhausts his eligibility, Mizzou’s looking real thin in the frontcourt. Incoming signee Jordan Wilmore is massive at 7-foot-3, but he’s considered more a project, so it’s difficult to project how much of an impact he can make immediately.
Nikko’s obviously been a pleasant surprise for Mizzou this season. I say fans should enjoy him in his final games as a Tiger. The known outdoorsman is also a great dude.
Honestly, that they’re inconsistent. And I don’t mean when scores of three-pointers fall one game and dry up the next. That’s just statistical noise between small sample sizes. Sometimes shots just don’t fall. Look no further than any given year’s NCAA Tournament upsets to see what I mean.
Culture is a bit of a buzzword in college athletics — especially when it comes to coaching — and I do believe it plays a significant role in building a program. I’ve been impressed at times and confused at others by this team’s effort level. I’m not saying they’re not trying out on the court — I think that’s unfair and I’m not going to pretend to know intimately the competition level of Division I athletes.
But the players have spoken in the past few weeks of being “out-toughed” and not imposing their will enough. For a Martin-coached team, that’s a big deal. When you look at the Illinois and Arkansas wins, Mizzou played the type of basketball fans expect. In turn, they were competitive and beat solid teams.
Then you look at losses like the ones to Mississippi State, South Carolina or Texas A&M, and it feels like the complete opposite. When the Tigers are trending high and controlling what they can control, they look like a dangerous team. Otherwise, the offense looks ugly and the defense is gashed in another loss.
That Florida game still stands as an incredible offensive outlier, all the more so because it was Mizzou’s third SEC game and it looked like the Tigers turned a corner. Their four-game losing streak immediately afterward sank any shot they had of making the NCAA tournament, but for a second there, Mizzou really looked like a great team.
Considering level of opponent, I’m leaning toward a yes for the LSU game on Tuesday. Mizzou looked great against LSU, attacking the basket and making three-pointers. They tailed off in the second half, but it was still a solid effort. If there was a nit to pick, I’m looking at free throws and how MU left points on the board. In a four-point road loss, all of them counted.