From good to bad to worrisome: Five stats that define Mizzou’s basketball season
For all the hope the Missouri Tigers gathered before the season — eyeing an NCAA Tournament berth with their depth as a strength — it’s been another long year, now a little past the halfway point of Southeastern Conference play.
The Tigers’ strengths and weaknesses are well documented as they struggle (again) with injuries to two of their best players. There are positives, but few around the program envisioned a sub-.500 team at 11-13 and 3-8 in the SEC at this point in the season.
On the brighter side, it appears Mizzou coach Cuonzo Martin’s team has turned a corner in the past two games in a win over Arkansas and by falling just short at No. 25 LSU. But consistency has been an issue for Martin’s team. The two-game stretch directly followed losses to South Carolina and Texas A&M in which the shorthanded Tigers were “out-toughed” on the road.
With seven games left in the regular season, it’s apparent where Mizzou shows promise and where it struggles.
The issues on offense are well documented — from the shooting to inefficiency — but there are spots of the defense that bring the entire unit down. Here are five stats that have defined Mizzou’s season.
30.6%: Mizzou’s three-point shooting
To start with the obvious, Mizzou’s shooting has taken a massive step back compared to the past couple years. Guard Mark Smith is easily the Tigers’ most consistent shooter on three-pointers at 37.8%, but he’s dealing with a lower back injury and has missed the past four games.
Behind Mark Smith and Javon Pickett (35.9%), nobody is hitting more than 33% of their threes (with a minimum 20 three-point attempts). Even with Pickett, he doesn’t shoot many threes, as he’s seventh on the team in three-point attempts.
Part of the problem comes because the struggling three-point shooters are attempting the most of Mizzou’s three-point attempts. Watson (28%), Xavier Pinson (26.1%) and Mitchell Smith (26.7%) are second, third and fourth in three-point attempts on the team. While they’ve shown they can make threes in small spurts, it hasn’t been at a clip anywhere near consistent.
After shooting 39% two years ago on their way to the NCAA Tournament, the Tigers followed it up with 36.3% last season. But then that number plummeted to what it is now, ranking 300th in the nation.
337th: Mizzou’s defensive free-throw rate, per KenPom
Mizzou’s defense has fallen a long way when it was top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency early this season, according to KenPom. Currently the Tigers rank 91st, which isn’t bad, but nowhere near their peak.
That’s where the free-throw defense comes in. The Tigers are one of the worst defenses in the nation in terms of limiting fouls. The defense does a solid job guarding field goals and forcing turnovers, but their weakness easily comes down to the foul disparity.
In multiple games, Mizzou limited teams on actual field-goal attempts, but it didn’t matter because of the free throws. Look no further than losses to LSU, South Carolina and the second game to Texas A&M in recent weeks.
The infractions also bog down a limited Mizzou depth, one missing Mark Smith and forward Jeremiah Tilmon. Once foul trouble affects the rotation, it’s even more difficult for Mizzou to come out on top.
21.5%: Mizzou’s turnover percentage
On more than a fifth of their offensive possessions, Mizzou turns the ball over. They have yet to play a game without turning the ball over at least 10 times.
The turnovers are also worrying for a slower-paced team. The Tigers are 253rd in adjusted tempo, and it’s not surprising to see how they slow the game down significantly. But that should mean more controlled possessions, which hasn’t been the case.
Of course, while the giveaways are problematic, the Tigers are also prone to the careless-turnover variety. Instead of defenders forcing them into tough shots, it’s been awry passes or subpar decisions that have led to unforced turnovers by the Tigers.
Turnovers were also an issue the past two seasons, when Mizzou posted turnover percentages north of the 20 percent mark. But this year, coupled with a shoddy shooting team that doesn’t get to the free-throw line much, it’s the perfect recipe for a subpar offense.
91.8: Percent of minutes played by Tigers set to return
The only player who exhausts his eligibility after this season is Reed Nikko. Everyone is set to return to Mizzou, though there are questions as to whether Tilmon makes the jump to the pros.
Everyone besides Nikko has the chance to come back though transfers and Attrition is always a possibility, but 91.8% of minutes played this season have been by Tigers who are likely in a Mizzou uniform next year. (The only exception is the few minutes played by former guard Mario McKinney Jr., who transferred out of the program.)
The Tigers rely heavily on sophomores and juniors, and some on freshmen Kobe Brown and Tray Jackson. Some of the consistency issues lie in the inexperience.
While Nikko has played some of the best basketball of his career since taking over for Tilmon, he’s a career role player. While it’s a grind now, it points to a positive future — especially next year, when Mizzou will be mainly juniors and seniors.
11.7 points per game: Dru Smith’s scoring average
While Dru Smith leads the team in scoring, it doesn’t just stop there. He also leads the team per game in assists (4.2), free throw shooting (89.9%), steals (2.2) and minutes played (31.8).
After sitting a year because of NCAA transfer rules, Dru Smith has been exactly as advertised as Mizzou’s most important player. He’s also the only Tiger to start all 24 games.
He’s battled through an ankle injury in recent weeks, hobbling after hard falls, but powering through regardless. For Dru Smith, the absence of Tilmon and Mark Smith has been huge as the Tigers rely on him to generate shots. For the do-it-all guard, his style consists more of letting the game come to him. But with fewer offensive weapons, the guard has stepped out of his comfort zone in recent weeks.
At his best, Dru Smith plays like an All-SEC guard, which Florida coach Mike White pointed out after Mizzou defeated the Gators. smith is a capable defender. He’s not the most athletic player on the floor, but his intelligence and savvy make him a solid floor general.
This story was originally published February 14, 2020 at 5:00 AM.