Dissecting Mizzou’s offense: A look at the ‘four factors’ and areas of improvement
At the Missouri Tigers’ best, they click on offense. They showcased their peak against the Florida Gators, when three-pointers fell at an unsustainable rate, resulting in open driving lanes and a season-high 91 points.
But those highs are seen few and far between, with the lows plaguing the team too often. While the Tigers (10-10, 2-5 SEC) picked up a win against Georgia on Tuesday, their season still teeters on the edge of irrelevancy.
When the Mizzou offense is at its worst, every basket is a slog. Losses to Mississippi State and West Virginia showcase when little goes right for the Tigers.
There’s been little offensive consistency this season because of various reasons for Mizzou coach Cuonzo Martin’s team. Forward Jeremiah Tilmon hasn’t played in seven games. Criticisms range from lacking a go-to scorer to the many bricked three-pointers.
Tilmon’s absence has pushed each player up a peg in the rotation. Forward Reed Nikko starts in Tilmon’s spot, and while he scored a career-high 13 points against Georgia, he doesn’t pack the same scoring punch as Tilmon. When foul trouble affects Nikko and Mitchell Smith, raw players like Axel Okongo are relied upon for minutes.
It has arguably affected Mizzou guard Dru Smith the most. The 6-foot-2 guard does everything for the Tigers, leading the team at 30.8 minutes, 11.8 points and 4.2 assists per game, along with being tied for the team lead with 4.4 rebounds a game.
His style relies on letting shots come to him. He’s a capable scorer — Martin has said he can give the Tigers 15-20 points on any given night — as the Tigers rely on him and Mark Smith.
But why is Mizzou’s scoring a slog? Looking at the stats, there are the obvious and hidden reasons for what’s been a hard-to-watch offense most of the time.
Four Factors
In breaking down Mizzou’s offense, looking at the “four factors” measured by Ken Pomeroy reveals areas of strengths, weaknesses and potential improvement. The four factors showcase “why a team is good or bad when they have or don’t have the ball,” according to the KenPom website.
They’re broken up into four stats: effective field goal percentage (eFG%), turnover percentage (TO%), offensive rebounding percentage (OR%), and free throw rate (FTRate). All stats from KenPom or NCAA.com unless otherwise noted.
eFG%: 47.9%, 240th. The stat is similar to field goal percentage, but gives 50% more credit for three-pointers.
As expected, Mizzou’s shooting — whether on two-pointers or threes — is brutal.
The Tigers average 31.1% on three-pointers, 271st in the nation. They’re at 48.9% on two-pointers, 177th nationwide.
If there is a positive, there has been an uptick in shooting in recent weeks. In seven SEC games, the Tigers average 33.9% on three-pointers. It’s a small sample size, and also massively aided by a 12 for 19 showing against Florida. But if Mizzou can add a few percentage points to threes going forward, it keeps defenses a little more honest.
Mark Smith and Dru Smith have been reliable all season long. Torrence Watson has heated up a tad since a cold start to the season — including a Mizzou Arena record — but consistency is needed. Others like Xavier Pinson, Kobe Brown and Mitchell Smith bring down the shooting numbers as they try to find their shot.
Where the Tigers miss Tilmon is on those two-pointers. According to Hoop-Math.com, Tilmon is at an eFG% of 66.4%. He also takes a ton of shots near the rim, with 73.3% of field goals in the paint. It means the 6-foot-10 forward shoots and makes a lot of efficient shots. Even when he struggles with double teams, his impact on offense is significant.
TO%: 21.2%, 297th. The stat is turnovers divided by possessions. It shows how often a team turns the ball over regardless of pace.
Aside from the Tigers’ cold streaks of three-pointers, their propensity to turn the ball over in spurts is troubling. Whenever they start slow, turnovers are a massive culprit that gives the opposition free possessions.
Mizzou averages 14.3 turnovers per game, one of the worst marks in the nation. The Tigers have turned it over at least 10 times in every game this season.
Primary culprits for the giveaways are Dru Smith and Xavier Pinson, though that’s because they’re tasked with point guard duties and have the ball the most. Mizzou’s role players like Javon Pickett and Kobe Brown turn it over too often despite their limited roles.
The Tigers need to value the ball more. A turnover isn’t just a wasted possession, but can also be a chance for opponents to score easy buckets in transition. Cut a few turnovers a game and it’ll not only help the offense, but a lagging defense.
OR%: 30.1%, 105th. The stat measures possible rebounds the offense gets.
Of the four factors, this is where Mizzou ranks relatively highest at on offense, coming in at an above-average rate — and for good reason. Martin’s philosophy of building a competitive basketball team revolves around toughness. That spreads over into rebounding.
If there is a concern, it’s that two of Mizzou’s top four rebounders are guards in Mark Smith and Dru Smith. The others are forwards Mitchell Smith and Tilmon.
Of course, offensive rebounds lead to second-chance opportunities. It also means there was a field goal attempt to begin with instead of another turnover.
FTRate: 33.5, 149th. The stat shows a team’s ability to get to the free throw line. It’s free throws attempted divided by field goal attempts.
In what’s been a season-long trend, Martin and his staff have emphasized to the team to attack the basket more. Recently, there’s been positives signs of that, whether it was Mizzou’s comeback win over Georgia or against Alabama in a 31 for 31 free throw showing.
If there’s a track to consistent offense even when the shots refuse to fall, it likely lies in getting to the basket for either easy baskets or free throws. KenPom has the Tigers at 19th in the nation with a 77.3% free throw percentage, boosted by their NCAA record 54 consecutive made free throws over two games.
They have a few players who can draw fouls, mainly Pinson and Dru Smith. Pinson’s the driving type, unafraid to get to the basket aggressively. He’s shown an ability to do just that, and the Tigers could really use the 6-foot-2 point guard, who had an impressive bounceback game against the Bulldogs.
Dru Smith leads the team in drawing fouls while shooting 91.3% (73 for 80) from the free throw line. He isn’t the most athletic, but his body control and savviness near the basket has led to layups or opponents fouling him.
Bonus. KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency: 104.7, 139th. The stat is an estimate of points scored per 100 offensive possessions against an average Division I defense. The Division I average is 102.5.
The Tigers have shown spurts of efficient offensive play this season, though that usually relies heavily on the three-ball, which they shoot often. For Mizzou, 42.9% of its field goal attempts are three-pointers, which is 58th in the nation, according to KenPom.
That’s because defenses are looking to force Mizzou to shoot three-pointers, Martin said. That game plan often clogs the paint as teams focus on defending the drive. It leads to open threes, but the Tigers have failed to capitalize as the inefficient shooters are often the ones putting up the shots — just as the opposition intends.
There are paths to consistent offense, though there’s no one area worth pointing at. Adding Tilmon before the season ends is bound to be a massive help as the remaining Tigers labor through SEC play. For now, the Tigers look to pick up wins, with South Carolina next up at 2:30 p.m. Saturday.
This story was originally published January 30, 2020 at 1:15 PM.