Is Mizzou basketball’s season over? Forecasting the Tigers after 1-5 SEC start

The expectations for the Missouri Tigers this season were simple: An NCAA Tournament bid for the second time in three years under coach Cuonzo Martin.

The confidence came from Mizzou’s depth, with hopes Jeremiah Tilmon, Mark Smith, Xavier Pinson and a slew of returners would take a leap in their level of play. Mix in the addition of some talented freshmen and Dru Smith, who sat out last season because of NCAA transfer rules, and the Tigers had the potential makings of a competitive team.

But after a 1-5 start to SEC play, Mizzou’s season is on life support. The Tigers, 9-9 overall, are staring at another forgettable year as the losses pile up and fan interest wavers.

But only a third of the conference season is finished, which leaves Mizzou with 12 SEC games to earn resume-boosting wins. The Tigers also have a tough Big 12/SEC challenge game at No. 14 West Virginia at 11 a.m. Saturday.

A realistic best-case scenario through six SEC games for Mizzou was a 4-2 start with losses at Kentucky and a split on the Mississippi State-Alabama road trip. Then home wins against Tennessee, Florida and Texas A&M.

That could’ve left Mizzou in the thick of the SEC race. Even 3-3 or 2-4 didn’t spell doom for the season. But 1-5 is just about a worse-case scenario.

If there’s a glimmer of hope, it’s the schedule. Mizzou gets LSU on the road and Arkansas twice, but No. 16 Auburn at home. The Tigers are finished playing Kentucky and Florida, two of the better teams in the conference. Per BartTorvik’s numbers, Mizzou has played the third hardest schedule in the SEC.

That leaves the Tigers with winnable games ... but that’s where actual execution comes in.

Mizzou sorely misses Tilmon, who’s nursing a stress fracture in his left foot. Tilmon has played in just eight minutes in SEC play, missing the past five games.

From an offensive perspective, Mizzou relies on Tilmon heavily as a post presence. On defense, the 6-foot-10 forward has an influence Martin points out goes beyond the box score even when Tilmon deals with foul trouble. If or when Tilmon comes back, he immediately boosts Mizzou’s thin frontcourt.

Mizzou’s struggles scoring are well-documented, whether that be on three-pointers or elsewhere. There are paths to success — which the Tigers have showed in spurts — but the consistency just isn’t there.

But arguably more importantly, Mizzou’s growing concern is its defense.

The Tigers are allowing 73.5 points per game in SEC games, a sharp contrast to the 55.7 point average allowed in nonconference games. What was a top-10 scoring defense has slumped to 29th. For Martin and the Tigers, everything starts on the defensive end of the floor. As the defense lags, it throws a wrench in their identity.

Mizzou has slipped in recent weeks through the three-game losing streak, its ranking tumbling to 85th, according to KenPom. The Tigers were slotted at 39th in the preseason, which would put them right around the NCAA Tournament bubble.

The NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, which the selection committee uses, ranks Mizzou at No. 81. The Tigers aren’t even close to the bubble if the season ended today.

Despite the rough SEC start, any fans calling for Martin’s job won’t get anywhere. As part of Martin’s contract, he cannot be fired without cause until May 2021. He earned an extra year after Mizzou won 20 games and qualified for the NCAA Tournament in 2017-18. After May 2021, Martin’s buyout starts at $6 million.

For the foreseeable future, Martin is Mizzou’s guy.

But this season’s not over by any means. The Tigers have showed stretches of efficient basketball. There’s clearly talent on the team. But between injuries (again) and their zig-zagging nature, it’s difficult to pinpoint if they can turn the corner.

Forecasting the season

Before the season, Mizzou’s game at West Virginia on Saturday figured to be a potential barometer between two solid teams. But the Mountaineers have soared to 14-3 and No. 14 in the country. A loss to West Virginia isn’t a back-breaker, but a win could change Mizzou’s season.

After the final nonconference game of the season against West Virginia, Mizzou has a chance against its next three SEC opponents. Georgia, South Carolina and Texas A&M are three of the weaker teams in the conference.

Going at least 2-1 keeps Mizzou afloat, though stealing a pair of road games to 3-0 isn’t impossible. It could give Mizzou much-needed momentum. If the Tigers are 1-2 or 0-3 through these games, their slim margin of error is gone.

After three relatively easier games, Mizzou faces arguably its hardest stretch for the remainder of the season. Arkansas, LSU and Auburn are in competition for NCAA Tournament bids.

Luckily, the Tigers do get Auburn and Arkansas at home. While Mizzou is still an underdog in those games, those are closer to toss-ups, according to KenPom. The road game at LSU feels like a loss, but weirder things have happened this college basketball season. Going 0-3 is a real possibility, though 1-2 is likely. A 2-1 or somehow a 3-0 showing injects some real confidence into the fan base, if they’re still checked in.

The final six games of the season are easier. Facing Mississippi at home and Vanderbilt on the road should be wins. Arkansas on the road is rough, but the Razorbacks are beatable.

The last three games of the season holds intrigue. The Tigers can earn revenge at home against Mississippi State and Alabama. Mississippi is a winnable road game. According to KenPom, those three games are virtually an even split at 50-50. It bodes well for Mizzou in jostling into position ahead of the SEC Tournament.

Projected KenPom final record: 15-16, 7-11 SEC

A realistic positive scenario for Mizzou lands them in the 7-11 or 8-10 range as its final conference record. The Tigers desperately need some upset wins. Throw in a few bounces and a path to a .500 record in SEC play is improbable but a lot has to go right.

Of course, things could completely bomb as the Tigers lose to teams they shouldn’t, just like they did against Texas A&M at home on Tuesday.

Mizzou should hope to win enough to ensure it doesn’t play on the first day of the SEC Tournament, which is in Nashville from March 11-15. A .500 or better record could mean the Tigers earn a NIT or other postseason tournament berth.

The Tigers’ season isn’t over by any means — but it is dangerously close to falling off the rails.

Souichi Terada

The Kansas City Star

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