Why a KU freshman (no, not that one) could be the key vs. Iowa State: Prediction
The Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team hosts No. 2 Iowa State on Tuesday.
The Jayhawks (11-5) lost to WVU on Saturday, while Iowa State beat Oklahoma State.
Here is more about Tuesday’s game, including a scouting report and prediction:
Kansas basketball vs. ISU: Game details
When: 8 p.m. Central on Tuesday, Jan. 13
Where: Allen Fieldhouse (Lawrence)
TV/streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 16-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) ranking: 3
Betting line: ISU is a 3.5-point favorite.
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats include only Division I competition.
ISU Strengths
- They force turnovers: Iowa State ranks No. 3 in opponent turnover percentage (24.5).
- Long-ball hitters: The Cyclones are shooting a blistering 40.8% on 3-pointers, ranking No. 2 nationally.
- Elite defense: ISU ranks No. 2 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (89.7), which measures the number of points given up per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent.
ISU Weaknesses
- Lack of bench trust: ISU ranks No. 283 in bench minutes percentage (28.6).
- Free-throw struggles: Iowa State ranks No. 281 in team free-throw percentage (68.9%).
- Struggle to draw fouls: ISU ranks No. 172 in free-throw rate.
ISU Name to Know
6-foot-9 senior forward Joshua Jefferson (No. 5)
+ Good scorer (17.7 points per game)
+ Solid from deep (36.4% on 3-pointers)
+ Good rebounder (7.8 per game)
+ Steals magnet (1.6 per game)
+ Quality facilitator (5.2 APG)
- Turnover prone (2.5 per game)
Kansas-ISU game prediction
This is an important game for the Jayhawks. It’s not exactly “must-win,” but if Kansas loses, its record in Big 12 games falls to 1-3. The last time that happened was 1987-88.
Preventing that won’t be easy for the Jayhawks. Iowa State is a talented squad that plays elite defense (No. 2 nationally on KenPom) and offense (No. 12).
For Kansas to pull off the upset, a few things need to happen:
- KU’s defense must look like it did before Big 12 play started.
- Darryn Peterson needs to score big (think: 30-plus) on good efficiency.
- Starting big men Flory Bidunga and Bryson Tiller need to be better on both ends.
- KU’s bench needs to give the starters some help.
That’s a lot that needs to go right. But that’s also why the Jayhawks are underdogs.
I do expect this game to be close, and I think the Jayhawks will have a chance. But it’s a tough ask for them to beat this Iowa State squad, even at home.
Prediction: Iowa State 72, KU 65
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Iowa State (-3.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 13-3
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 11-5
KU Player to Watch: Bryson Tiller
The KU freshman started the season strong but has struggled of late, especially on the defensive end.
Simply put, Tiller has to be better.
On offense, he needs to provide more than he’s given KU lately. He hasn’t scored double-digit points since KU faced Davidson on Dec. 22.
Defensively, Tiller will likely match up against Jefferson at times. He has to hold up defensively in a matchup that could determine how this game unfolds.
This story was originally published January 13, 2026 at 7:00 AM.
