Kansas vs. Arkansas game prediction: Can Jayhawks advance to NCAA Tournament’s Round 2?
The No. 7-seeded Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team will play No. 10-seeded Arkansas in the first round of the NCAA Tournament Thursday evening.
KU holds an 8-6 all-time edge in games against Arkansas, including a 1-1 mark in NCAA Tournament showdowns. The Razorbacks won the most recent postseason matchup, 72-71, in the second round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
Here is a scouting report and prediction for Thursday’s game:
No. 7 Kansas vs. No. 10 Arkansas
When/where: 6:10 p.m. Central Time, Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, Rhode Island
TV/streaming: CBS
Opponent’s record: 20-13
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) ranking: 40
Betting line: Kansas is a 5-point favorite.
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats include only Division I competition.
Arkansas Strengths
Elite defense: Arkansas ranks No. 18 in adjusted defensive efficiency (95.2). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. KU ranks No. 11 in the same metric.
Defend the long ball: The Razorbacks rank No. 72 in opponent 3-point percentage (31.9).
Good defense without fouling: Arkansas opponents have a free-throw rate of 29.4, ranking No. 87 overall
Arkansas Weaknesses
Don’t take 3s: Arkansas ranks No. 243 in 3-point rate (36.7).
Struggles from deep: The Razorbacks are shooting 33.3% on 3-pointers, ranking No. 201 overall.
Rebounding struggles: Arkansas ranks No. 249 in offensive rebound percentage (27.6).
Arkansas Name to Know
6-foot-2 freshman guard Boogie Fland (No. 2)
+ Quality scorer (15.1 PPG)
+ Good at the line (shooting 83.9% on free throws)
+ Good rebounder for his size (3.4 RPG)
+ Good 3-point shooter ( shooting 36.5% on 3-pointers)
+ Good facilitator (5.7 APG)
- Not the most efficient scorer (shooting 39.1% from the field)
- Turnover prone (1.6 TPG)
Game Prediction
Arkansas is a talented squad but doesn’t much resemble the sort of team that has plagued the Jayhawks this season.
The Razorbacks don’t shoot many 3-pointers or grab many offensive rebounds — two trouble spots for KU of late. On top of that, their leading scorer and rebounder, Adou Theiro, is injured and will miss this game.
Conversely, Kansas is coming off some of its best offensive games of the season. KU hit double-digit 3-pointers in consecutive games for the first time all season during the Big 12 Tournament.
Given that momentum and Arkansas’ short-handed lineup, I like the Jayhawks to win and cover.
Kansas 76, Arkansas 70
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-5)
Shreyas’ season record: 25-8
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 18-15
KU Player to watch: Zeke Mayo
Kansas guard Zeke Mayo has been playing his best basketball of the season lately. The Lawrence native has hit five or more 3-pointers in three consecutive games.
KU coach Bill Self has certainly liked the addition of the South Dakota State transfer.
“He is a 10,” Self said. “It’s nice to have a local guy. Our community I think enjoys supporting Zeke. I wish we had him more than one year. We’ll enjoy him while we’ve got him. It’s not going to last forever.”
Let’s see if Mayo can carry his hot streak into the postseason and help extend the Jayhawks’ stay in the NCAA Tournament.
