KU basketball game prediction: Is Arizona State built to upset Jayhawks ... again?
The No. 11-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to face Arizona State on Wednesday.
KU beat UCF on Sunday, while Arizona State defeated Colorado on Saturday.
Arizona State has won the last two games in this series, which took place December 2018 and 2017.
Below is a scouting report and prediction for the game.
No. 11 Kansas vs. Arizona State
When/where: 8 p.m. Central, Allen Fieldhouse
TV/Streaming: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 10-3
Opponent KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 57
Betting line: Kansas is a 12.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Arizona State Strengths
Strong defense: The Sun Devils rank No. 32 in adjusted defensive efficiency (96.9). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points given up per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. KU ranks No. 5 in the same metric.
Foul drawers: Arizona State does a great job of drawing fouls, ranking No. 76 in free-throw rate (76.9). KU ranks No. 359 in the same metric.
Love the long ball: ASU ranks No. 39 in 3-point percentage (37.6%).
Arizona State Weaknesses
Turnover struggles: ASU ranks No. 216 in turnover percentage (18.2).
Struggles inside the arc: The Sun Devils rank No. 156 in 2-point percentage (51.8).
Lots of new faces: ASU ranks No. 293 in minutes continuity percentage (22.5)
Arizona State Name to Know
6-foot-9 senior forward Basheer Jihad (No. 8)
+ Quality scorer (13.5 PPG)
+ Good rebounder (5.5 rebounds per game)
+ Good shooter (shooting 38.9% on 3-pointers)
- Not much of a passer (1.2 APG)
- Turnover prone (averaging 2.4 turnovers per game)
- Average free throw shooter (FT % of 75.3)
Tale of the tape
If there’s one thing Arizona State loves to do, it’s shoot 3-pointers. ASU ranks No. 87 in 3-point rate (43.2) and No. 39 in 3-point percentage (37.6%).
ASU’s Adam Miller is deadly from beyond the arc. The guard is shooting 48% from deep on 3.8 attempts a game.
He showed that ability in this highlight: Miller sprung free with four Colorado defenders inside the arc.
After relocating and catching the pass, Miller canned the 3-pointer before the Buffs’ defender had a chance to properly contest. When Miller has the ball, he’s a threat to shoot a 3-pointer (75% of his shots come from long range).
So the Jayhawks may answer by face-guarding him or sticking to him on the perimeter, especially when he relocates without the ball.
Kansas coach Bill Self called KU guard Shakeel Moore the Jayhawks’ best perimeter defender, so expect Moore to spend time on Miller.
Game Prediction
The Jayhawks enter this game following their most dominant outing of the season against UCF on Sunday.
They’ll hope to keep that momentum going against ASU. The key for the Jayhawks will be to limit ASU’s stellar 3-point shooting and not commit shooting fouls.
The Jayhawks were locked in defensively against the Knights; if KU can bring that level of energy and tenacity, it will go a long way in ensuring a victory.
On the flip side, KU’s offense needs to take smart shots and score efficiently inside the arc, as ASU excels at defending 3-pointers.
I like KU in this one, but not to cover.
Kansas 73, Arizona State 65
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Arizona State (+12.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 10-3
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 6-7
KU Player to Watch: Shakeel Moore
Shakeel Moore made his first start in KU’s victory over UCF. He had six points, three rebounds and six assists in 20 minutes.
Now, he will start again for the Jayhawks. Self praised Moore’s play vs. UCF, and it’ll be important to see how he builds on it Wednesday.
Also: KU desperately needs to solidify its starting five. So if Moore can earn the spot, it’ll go a long way in having a stable rotation.
