KU basketball vs. West Virginia game prediction: Will the Jayhawks win Big 12 opener?
The No. 7-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to face West Virginia on Tuesday.
KU beat Brown on Dec. 22, while West Virginia defeated Mercyhurst. The game will mark the start of Big 12 conference play for both sides, as a former 2022 KU national champion returns to Allen Fieldhouse.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
No. 7 Kansas vs. West Virginia
When/where: 1 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 9-2
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 49
Betting line: Kansas is a 12.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
West Virginia Strengths
Good defense: The Mountaineers rank No. 27 in adjusted defensive efficiency (96.3). Adjusting defensive efficiency is the number of points given up per 100 possessions, adjusted per opponent. KU ranks No. 7 in the same metric.
Charity-stripe converters: WVU ranks No. 32 in free-throw percentage (77.8).
Red hot: WVU has won five straight games.
West Virginia Weaknesses
Rebounding struggles: West Virginia ranks No. 226 in offensive rebounding percentage (28.7).
Issues drawing fouls: Like Kansas, the Mountaineers struggle to draw fouls. WVU ranks No. 251 in free throw rate (30). KU ranks No. 360 in the same metric.
Lots of new faces: The Mountaineers rank No. 356 in minutes continuity percentage, meaning they have an entirely new team this season.
West Virginia Name to Know
6-foot-3 senior guard Javon Small (No. 7)
+ Leading scorer (20.2 PPG)
+ Solid facilitator (4.8 assists per game)
+ Great rebounder for his size (4.4 rebounds per game)
+ Elite from deep (shooting 38.9% on 3-pointers)
+ Solid free-throw shooter (shooting 87.3% on free throws)
- Turnover prone (averaging 2.8 turnovers per game)
Tale of the Tape
Any time you watch a West Virginia game, a common theme emerges. If Small is on the court, he will touch the ball.
The offense runs through him. His usage rate is 28.2%, the highest on the team. He’s a constant threat with the ball, and this was no different in his last game.
You’ll see in this highlight: Small dribbled the ball. His big man set a pick and rolled to the basket. Small found him for an easy dunk with a bounce pass.
It was all made possible because two defenders converged on Small. He’s by far the best offensive player for the Mountaineers, so the Jayhawks need to ensure he’s accounted for — while not overcommitting as to allow him to control the game with his passing.
Expect KU guard Dajuan Harris to be tasked with defending Small. Harris is KU’s best guard defender, so he will likely draw the assignment, and KJ Adams — on switches — could help, too.
KU basketball game prediction
This game will be a big test for both sides. For the Jayhawks, it’ll be a chance to see how they fare against a conference opponent after an extended rest period.
Meanwhile, WVU will look to keep its winning streak going. A Mountaineers squad that excels at defense will test KU’s inconsistent offense.
On the flip side, Kansas guards must contain WVU’s Small.
For the Jayhawks, the talent advantage is evident. The question: Can KU minimize its weaknesses (struggles drawing fouls and not taking enough 3-pointers) while minimizing Small’s contributions?
I think so. I like the Jayhawks in this one.
Kansas 75, WVU 67
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: WVU (+12.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 9-2
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 4-7
KU Player to watch: Rylan Griffen
All eyes are on KU guard Rylan Griffen, who suffered an eye injury in KU’s game against Brown on Dec. 22. Overall, it’s been a rather unfortunate start to Griffen’s first year with the Jayhawks.
Kansas coach Bill Self believes Griffen and guard AJ Storr will excel in the second half of the season. What better chance for Griffen to prove Self right than in the Jayhawks’ conference opener?
If Griffen can play well against the Mountaineers, it will help build his confidence and bring him one step closer to the level of player Self hoped to have when the transfer guard joined the Jayhawks.
