KU basketball vs. Missouri prediction: Another Jayhawks blowout ... or possible upset?
The No. 1-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to face rival Missouri in another iteration of the Border War.
KU lost to Creighton on Wednesday, while Missouri defeated Cal on Tuesday.
KU leads the series 176-95. Recent games between the two have included some KU blowout wins.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
No. 1 Kansas vs. Mizzou: Game details
When/where: 12 p.m., Sunday, Mizzou Arena (Columbia)
TV/Streaming: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 7-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 61
Betting line: Kansas is a 6.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Missouri team strengths
Great offense: Missouri ranks No. 36 in adjusted offensive efficiency (115.2). Adjusted offensive efficiency is the amount of points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. KU ranks No. 16 in the same metric.
Dominant inside the arc: The Tigers rank No. 1 in 2-point percentage (64.7%).
They get to the line: Missouri ranks No. 2 in free throw rate (55%).
Missouri Weaknesses
Iso ball: MU ranks No. 287 in assist rate (46.3%).
Weak schedule: Don’t get fooled by the Tigers’ 7-1 record as their strength of schedule ranks No. 358.
Struggles on free throws: Missouri ranks No. 199 in free-throw percentage (70.1)
Missouri Name to Know
6-foot-9 junior Mark Mitchell (No. 25)
Former KC-area standout and Duke transfer
+ Good scorer (12.3 PPG)
+ Solid rebounder (4.9 rebounds per game)
+ Steal magnet (1.3 steals per game)
- Bad from the line (shooting 60.5% on free throws)
- Struggling from deep (shooting 25% on 3-pointers)
Tale of the Tape
Missouri loves scoring inside the arc — as the Tigers rank No. 1 in 2-point percentage.
MU guard Tamar Bates is no exception. On one highlight, he drove from beyond the arc to the basket, rose up and dunked on the Cal defender.
Bates is shooting a staggering 66.7% at the rim, so he’s always on the lookout for easy buckets. In this scenario, he created slight separation, enough to drive past his defender and get a dunk.
For the Jayhawks, expect Dajuan Harris to be tasked with guarding Bates. Harris needs to get into Bates’ airspace and not let him get a step.
That applies to any Tiger. The team shoots 63% on its shots at the rim; 43.8% of MU’s shots come from that area.
If a Missouri player does beat a guard off the dribble, a KU big man — Hunter Dickinson or KJ Adams — needs to rotate and cover the rim.
KU-Missouri game prediction
It’s never easy playing Missouri in Columbia.
This Tigers squad plays fast and has an impressive offense, especially inside the arc. Kansas could be tested in this game between the hostile environment and MU’s scoring punch.
That said, the Jayhawks are coming off a loss and have an excellent defense that should be able to handle this Tigers squad.
On top of that, KU’s offense will overpower a Missouri defense that hasn’t faced a squad nearly as good as the Jayhawks this season.
I like the Jayhawks in this one.
Kansas 80, Missouri 72
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-6.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 7-1
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 2-6
KU Player to Watch: Hunter Dickinson
For better or worse, all eyes are on Dickinson.
Dickinson struggled vs. Creighton, ending the night with just six points on four shots. Creighton’s defense effectively neutralized KU’s star big man.
Well, look for him to bounce back against Missouri. The Tigers don’t have anyone who can guard Dickinson effectively, and it’ll be key for the Jayhawks to take advantage of that.
