KU basketball-UNCW prediction: Why this matchup could be good (or bad) for Flory Bidunga
The No. 1-ranked Kansas men’s basketball team is set to face UNC Wilmington on Tuesday night at Allen Fieldhouse.
KU defeated Oakland on Saturday, while the Seahawks beat USC Upstate in their most recent contest.
This is the first-ever matchup between both sides.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
No. 1 Kansas vs. UNC Wilmington
When/where: 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse (Lawrence)
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 3-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 162
Betting line: Kansas is a 23-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
UNC Wilmington Team Strengths
Decent offense: The Seahawks rank No. 142 in adjusted offensive efficiency (105.9). Adjusted offensive efficiency is the amount of points scored per 100 possessions.
Elite foul drawers: UNC Wilmington does a great job of drawing fouls, ranking first nationally in free throw rate (86.5%).
Quality shots inside the arc: The Seahawks rank No. 55 in 2-point percentage (58.2). The Jayhawks rank No. 75 in the same metric.
UNC Wilmington Team Weaknesses
Issues with shooting the long ball: UNC Wilmington ranks No. 347 in team 3-point percentage (22.7%). The Seahawks also don’t take many 3-pointers, with only 39.6% of their shots coming from deep — that ranks No. 183.
Defensive struggles: UNC Wilmington lets opponents get quality shots up, ranking No. 271 in opposing team effective field goal percentage (54.4%).
KU is the toughest test yet: Don’t be fooled by the Seahawks’ 3-0 record. They haven’t played anyone tough yet, and their strength of schedule ranks No. 296.
UNC Wilmington Name to Know
6–foot-1 senior guard Donovan Newby (No. 3)
+ Good scorer (22.7 PPG)
+ Solid rebounder (3.3 rebounds per game)
+ Willing passer (3.7 APG)
+ Elite shooter (shooting 46.5% from deep, 87.5% on free throws)
Tale of the Tape
If there’s one thing the Seahawks do well on offense, it’s draw fouls.
That was the case on this highlight, when Joshua Corbin hit a nifty behind-the-back pass to Noah Ross, who converted the basket and earned the foul.
Kansas will be tested to play smart defense without fouling, especially in transition. KU needs to get back and protect the rim, as UNCW shoots a staggering 91.7% at the rim in transition opportunities. Ross is dangerous at the rim, shooting a red-hot 88.9%.
Also of note: Transfer guard AJ Storr has already fouled out once for KU, and freshman big man Flory Bidunga has committed seven fouls in his last two games (26 minutes).
Game prediction
For a game KU should win easily, UNCW will test the Jayhawks in one significant way.
Namely, can Kansas play defense without fouling? Keep an eye out on Bidunga. He’s averaging 2.3 fouls in just 13.5 minutes of play. Let’s see if he can play extended minutes without fouling.
The Seahawks don’t have the 3-point shooting or defense to keep up with the Jayhawks, so I like KU to win and cover in this one.
Kansas 78, UNCW 52
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-23)
Shreyas’ season record: 4-0
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 1-3
KU Player to Watch: Shakeel Moore
Moore returned to action on Saturday vs. Oakland after missing much of the preseason due to a foot injury. He only played five minutes but showcased why he’s such an intriguing rotation player for the Jayhawks — his defense.
Moore has practiced and should see an increase in minutes vs. the Seahawks. Let’s see if he can carve out a steady rotation role for himself, or at the very least make a case for it.
