How KU basketball avoids an upset vs. Howard in first round of the NCAA Tournament
The NCAA Tournament has finally arrived and the Kansas men’s basketball team is the No. 1 seed in the West Regional.
No. 1 seed KU will play No. 16 Howard in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday at Wells Fargo Center in Des Moines.
The Jayhawks are 2-0 against Howard all-time, with the two teams’ last meeting on Dec. 29, 2011. KU won 89-34.
No. 16 Howard comes off a 65-62 win over Norfolk State in the MEAC Tournament final. This is the Bison’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1992 — when they lost, coincidentally, to KU.
This year’s edition of Howard basketball is an excellent three-point shooting team led by a sharpshooting guard.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
Thursday’s game: West region No. 1 seed Kansas vs. No. 16 seed Howard
When/where: 1 p.m. Thursday in Des Moines, Iowa
TV/streaming: TBS
Opponent’s record: 22-12, 11-3 MEAC
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) ranking: 216th
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Howard Team Strengths
Efficient beyond the arc: Howard ranks 31st in three-point percentage (37.2)
Glass cleaners: The Bison rank 28th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (33.8).
Sharing is caring: Howard ranks 79th in assist rate (54.7 %)
Deep lineups: Howard coach Kenny Blakeney likes to use his bench quite a bit, ranking 51st in bench-minutes percentage (36.3%)
Mistake forcers: The Bison are excellent at forcing turnovers, ranking 54th in the nation in turnover percentage (20.7)
Howard Team Weaknesses
Turnover prone: The Bison struggle to take care of the ball, ranking 356th in turnover percentage (22.9). They average 16.2 turnovers per game.
Foul heavy: Howard struggles to play defense without fouling, ranking 262nd in foul rate (34.6%).
Mediocre defense: Howard ranks 212th in adjusted defensive efficiency (106.9). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for the opponent.
Poor strength of schedule: The Bison’s strength of schedule is 314th in the nation and includes zero Quad-1 wins in three opportunities.
Beaten on the glass: Howard struggles to keep opposing teams off the offensive glass — the Bison rank 307th in opposing team offensive rebounding percentage (31.6).
Howard Name to Know
5-foot-11 sophomore guard Elijah Hawkins (No. 3)
+ Elite shooter (47.3% from three)
+ Quick hands (1.8 steals per game)
+ Creates for others (5.9 assists per game)
- Turnover prone (2.4 turnovers per game)
- Struggles at the rim (49.5%)
- Has been slumping (35% shooting over his last five games)
Tale of the Tape
Howard does an excellent job of moving the ball around to find quality shots — especially Hawkins. Here, Hawkins drew two defenders and found fellow Bison Steve Settle III in the right corner. Settle caught the pass and calmly canned the three-pointer before the defense could recover. The Jayhawks shouldn’t overhelp on defense against Howard; doing so could leave them vulnerable in the corners against an excellent three-point shooting team.
One way the Bison stay in games despite their mediocre offense (204th in adjusted offensive efficiency): grabbing offensive rebounds at a high rate. Jelani Williams missed the three-pointer in this possession, but Bryce Harris collected the rebound and passed it to Kobe Dickison. Dickson attempted a shot but got fouled and made both free throws.
KU’s struggled to keep teams off the offensive boards (No. 175 in opposing team offensive rebound rate), so Howard presents some problems. However, when Kansas does outrebound its opponent, it does so by rebounding and boxing out consistently. Those two things are pivotal in limiting a significant strength of the Bison.
Game Prediction
Kansas comes into this game as a heavy favorite, with good reason.
Howard does two things really well: shoot threes and rebound efficiently on the offensive end. Otherwise, the Bison are mediocre in most facets. KU’s offense has a huge advantage against the Howard defense, which isn’t well-poised to stop the offensive firepower of Kansas.
The Bison could perhaps limit one of Jalen Wilson, Gradey Dick or Harris, but it’s hard to see them making all three ineffective. Howard has a bigger lineup than the Jayhawks, but that still won’t be enough to limit Kansas.
The key matchup in this game is KU’s defense vs. Howard’s offense. As long as Kansas doesn’t overhelp, keeps track of shooters and isn’t lazy on its defensive rotations, it’s hard to see the Bison hitting enough three-pointers to give themselves a chance. If the Jayhawks keep Howard off the offensive boards, this game should be over quickly.
I don’t think it will be particularly close. KU has too much talent and discipline to lose to Howard, and the Bison simply aren’t good enough to maximize Kansas’ weaknesses. So give me Kansas for the win, but not quite the spread Vegas predicts.
Kansas 80, Howard 61
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Howard (+21)
Shreyas’ season record: 16-7
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 13-10
KU Player to watch: Dajuan Harris
The NCAA Tournament is when big-time players make big-time plays, so there’s no better choice for KU’s player to watch than Dajuan Harris.
Harris had a rough game against Texas in the Big 12 Tournament finale, finishing with six points on 3-for-7 shooting. But don’t let the points fool you: he was practically non-existent vs. Texas. And to be sure, that’s a very rare sight.
Naturally, a game against Howard provides a great opportunity for Harris to get back on track. Also, with Kevin McCullar still dealing with back spasms, Harris’ duties Thursday will include limiting Hawkins.
If Harris bounces back on offense and limits Hawkins’ impact, Kansas should win and cover the spread.
