Why a slumping KU guard could break out against Kansas State: Opponent breakdown
The Kansas men’s basketball team travels to Manhattan on Saturday and plays in-state rival Kansas State at Bramlage Coliseum.
The two teams last met in February, with the Jayhawks winning 102-83 over the Wildcats in Lawrence. KU has won the previous seven games in the series.
K-State had its first conference loss on Saturday, falling 82-68 to TCU. But the Wildcats are a formidable team on both ends, not to mention they feature a pair of explosive scorers.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
Tuesday’s game: No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 13 Kansas State
When/where: 6:00 p.m., Bramlage Coliseum
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 13-2, 4-1 Big 12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 26
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
K-State team strengths
Good on both sides of the ball: Kansas State ranks 37th in adjusted offensive efficiency (112.7) and 39th in adjusted defensive efficiency (95.5). Adjusted efficiency is the measure of how many points a team scores/surrenders per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent.
Sharing is caring: The Wildcats do an excellent job of playing unselfish basketball. K-State ranks fifth in assists per game (18.6) and sixth in assist rate (66.7%)
Second chance galore: K-State loves to crash the glass. The Wildcats rank 60th in offensive rebounding percentage (32.9) and average 11.1 offensive rebounds per game.
K-State team weaknesses
Old-school play: Kansas State likes to play inside the arc, so the ‘Cats don’t take a lot of threes. They rank 206th in three-point makes (7.2), while only 34.6% of their field goal attempts are from three, ranking 265th in the nation.
Careless play: K-State struggles to take care of the ball. The Wildcats rank 262nd in turnovers per game (13.8).
No trust in the bench: K-State coach Jerome Tang plays his starters heavy minutes. The Cyclones rank 325th in bench minutes percentage (24.3)
KSU player to watch
6-foot-6 Senior forward Keyontae Johnson (No. 11)
+ Good shooter; he shoots 38.5% from 3.
+ Quick hands, averages 1.2 steals per game
+ Great rebounder for his size (7.1 rebounds per game)
- OK free throw shooter (73.38%)
- Not great at taking care of the ball (3.1 turnovers per game)
Tale of the tape
Kansas State doesn’t take many threes, but when they do, it’s usually guard Markquis Nowell. Here Johnson passed to Nowell, who stood deep beyond the arc and canned the three. He got fouled as well.
The 5-foot-8 guard has a swift trigger and shoots 38.2% from three. The Jayhawks may face-guard Nowell — a strategy opponents have used to defend KU’s Gradey Dick — and run him off the three-point line. If a KU player gets caught in a screen, Nowell can wreak havoc.
K-State does a great job of turning defense into offense. Here, Nowell stole the ball and immediately began the fast break. Nowell nearly lost the ball but eventually passed to guard Cam Carter. Carter pump-faked the Oklahoma State defender, who flew by, and then canned the three.
The Wildcats’ starting lineup has three players (Nowell, Johnson and Nae’Quan Tomlin) averaging over a steal per game. So, the Jayhawks have to make an effort to take care of the ball and be aware of where defenders are on the court, because K-State loves to blow up passes.
Game prediction
KU travels to Manhattan after barely surviving a 62-60 victory over Iowa State on Saturday at Allen Fieldhouse.
Not only is K-State good on both sides of the ball, but the ‘Cats come in with extra motivation. Not only did they just have their first conference loss, but they’ve lost seven straight times to the Jayhawks (with their last win in 2019).
The biggest focus for Kansas’ defense should be on the dynamic duo of Johnson and Nowell, who combine for an average of more than 35 points per game. Nowell is an elite shooter and ranks second in the nation in assists per game (8.5). The recipe for success is KU’s defense limiting the duo’s impact and forcing other players to beat them.
On the offensive side, the Jayhawks’ biggest worry will be limiting turnovers. Kansas did a great job of that against Iowa State (one of the best in the nation at forcing turnovers), so the Jayhawks should be OK here.
The Jayhawks have a difficult task playing against one of their biggest rivals on the road. But if the Jayhawks have shown anything this year, they tend to show up for big conference road games, such as Texas Tech and West Virginia. The Wildcats’ offense is too reliant on its dynamic duo and Kansas’ defense should limit them just enough.
Kansas 75, K-State 70
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-2.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 8-1
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 7-2
KU player to watch: Kevin McCullar
This game is the perfect opportunity for KU guard Kevin McCullar to get out of his shooting slump (34% FG in last five games) and play a pivotal role on defense. The Wildcats will likely key their defensive focus on Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson, so it should allow McCullar to have some open shots.
On the defensive end, McCullar will likely guard Johnson. If McCullar can limit Johnson’s impact and hit some timely shots, the Jayhawks should come out of Bramlage Coliseum as the victors.
