Here’s Oklahoma Sooners basketball’s biggest concern vs. Kansas Jayhawks: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: Oklahoma at No. 8 Kansas, noon, Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: CBS
Opponent’s record: 14-10
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 32
Point spread: Kansas by 10 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Close shots: Because Oklahoma is effective in the half-court on cuts and also is opportunistic with fastbreaks, it thrives from two-point range, making 58% of its interior shots (fifth nationally).
• Defensive aggressiveness: The Sooners’ defense prospers with turnovers, ranking 41st in defensive turnover percentage and 52nd in steal rate.
• Transition defense: Oklahoma puts a huge emphasis on getting back, as its defense allows the 32nd-fewest opportunities on fastbreaks while also effectively holding down opponent shooting percentages in those scenarios (15th-best defensive mark nationally).
3 WEAKNESSES
• Carelessness: The downside of Oklahoma’s cut-heavy offense is that it has naturally led to more giveaways on passes; the Sooners are 338th in offensive turnover rate and also have 12% of their possessions end in opponent steals — a bottom 10 mark in Div. I.
• Creating contact: Oklahoma doesn’t play an overly physical style offensively, and that’s reflected by the team’s low offensive free-throw rate that ranks 259th nationally.
• Rim protection: The Sooners are by far the Big 12’s worst when it comes to blocking shots, with primary 5 man Tanner Groves posting just three combined swats in 11 conference games.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-3 guard Jordan Goldwire (No. 0)
Plus: Transfer from Duke who previously made All-ACC defensive team
Plus: Ranks first in Oklahoma player production on EvanMiya.com
Plus: Has strong assist rate
Plus: Powerful finisher at the rim in transition
Plus: Team’s best at creating steals
Minus: Not a true three-point threat; 27% this season and 29% for career
Minus: Has been turnover prone
Minus: Struggles to find efficient ways to score in half-court settings
PREDICTION
During a chat with reporters on Friday, Oklahoma coach Porter Moser brought up his biggest worry entering Saturday’s game: KU’s transition offense.
Moser said, from watching film, he believes the Jayhawks run much better at home than they do on the road. He noted that KU has many players who can bring it up the court on fastbreaks, saying it would be vital for Oklahoma to get back while trying to control the tempo.
As mentioned above ... the Sooners have been good in this area all season. Perhaps part of the reason Moser spoke about this Friday is because he values this facet so much to begin with, which has led to him putting more overall focus on transition defense than offensive rebounding.
If Oklahoma can prevent KU runouts, though, it’s not difficult to see how it can remain competitive. KU has played much more passive defensively in Big 12 play, which means a high number of steals might not be realistic. Meanwhile, on offense, Oklahoma likely would’ve beaten KU in Norman last month if big man Tanner Groves hadn’t had such an uncharacteristic off-shooting night both inside and on threes.
One of KU’s most significant defensive weaknesses has been defending cuts, and the Jayhawks certainly will be challenged in that area. Texas also showed that KU’s current defensive setup could be vulnerable to pick-and-pop threes, and Groves can make KU pay for overhelp there.
The Jayhawks should win this one, but following a physical affair against Texas on Monday, it also wouldn’t surprise me if KU isn’t quite as bouncy as it’s been in some previous games.
This seems like a “Jayhawks for the victory, Sooners for the cover” type of afternoon in Lawrence.
Kansas 73, Oklahoma 68
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Oklahoma
HAWK TO ROCK
Though he’s not as proficient on cuts as he had been earlier in the season, Christian Braun remains the Jayhawk most likely to take advantage of Oklahoma’s defensive aggressiveness with well-timed breaks to the basket. Braun had just three two-point attempts in the first matchup against Oklahoma, but teammates should be doing all they can to look more his way Saturday.
Last game prediction: Texas 65, Kansas 61 (Actual: Texas 79-76) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 8-15
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 138-120-3 (53%)
This story was originally published February 12, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
