Quick Scout: Trust this Kansas Jayhawks-West Virginia basketball pick at your own risk
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: West Virginia at No. 9 Kansas, 1 p.m. Central, Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, Kansas
TV/Streaming: CBS
Opponent’s record: 13-2
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 39
Point spread: Kansas by 11 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Creating havoc: Seems like a theme, doesn’t it? Like previous KU opponents Texas Tech and Iowa State, West Virginia thrives with defensive pressure, ranking ninth nationally in defensive turnover rate.
• Offensive aggressiveness: The Mountaineers’ two greatest strengths offensively are activity stats: offensive rebounding rate (61st nationally) and offensive free-throw rate (61st as well).
• Foul avoidance: It’s incredible how quickly West Virginia coach Bob Huggins changed his philosophy in this area; from 2015-20, West Virginia ranked in the bottom 75 in defensive free-throw rate each season, before flipping that ranking to 87th last season and 60th this year.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Defensive rebounding: Though West Virginia is great on the offensive glass, it’s 323rd in D-board percentage, serving as a good reminder that offensive and defensive rebounding are different skills.
• Transition defense: The Mountaineers will press and have a gambling style defensively, and as a result, their defense allows the 21st-highest percentage of fastbreak attempts.
• Three-point shooting: West Virginia doesn’t take many threes, and even with that choosiness, the team’s long-range accuracy remains below average for an NCAA team (32%); opponents really only need to worry about Taz Sherman and Sean McNeil as perimeter shooters.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-4 guard Taz Sherman (No. 12)
Plus: Team’s go-to player offensively who takes on massive offensive role
Plus: Gets to foul line often and is 79% shooter there
Plus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “excellent” overall defender
Plus: Above-average shooter from three (28 for 77, 36%)
Plus: Has made higher-than-expected percentage of “tough” shots both off dribble and in mid-range
Minus: Poor shooter at the rim, especially as a taller guard
Minus: Does take a lot of mid-range jumpers — attempts that make it tough to maintain great efficiency
PREDICTION
Guys, it’s bad. Really bad. After seeing this season’s against-the-spread record below, you deserve whatever happens next if you’re taking gambling advice from me.
Anyways, this is a fascinating matchup in that it’s incredibly similar to the last one KU played. Iowa State came to Allen Fieldhouse 38th in KenPom; West Virginia is 39th. The Cyclones’ calling card is pressuring; the same can be said about the Mountaineers.
So perhaps it’s not surprising that KU was favored by 11 1/2 last game ... and 11 1/2 this one. Vegas tends to not be overly reactionary to one-game samples, so all this follows logic.
Recent games would tell you not to like the Jayhawks in this spot. It seems like Remy Martin will be out again with his knee injury, and KU has struggled to handle traps and presses in his absence. The Jayhawks, as a team, seem to have regressed a bit overall in recent games as well, and coach Bill Self still appears to be in tinker mode with his 5 spot.
Having said all that ... I feel like KU potentially will be better prepared to go without Martin this time. Joseph Yesufu should be fully healthy after recently turning his ankle, and at the same time, Bobby Pettiford should be more sound after getting additional practice time this week following an abdominal strain.
I could see West Virginia struggling to score against KU’s defense also. The Jayhawks don’t foul too much, while the Mountaineers lack the volume of three-point shooters that Iowa State had, which should limit some KU worries defensively.
The Jayhawks have toiled in their last four games, but this feels like one where their offense could be a bit better thanks to transition opportunities and a better plan if Martin is out.
I’ll take KU for the win and cover. Do with that what you will.
Kansas 80, West Virginia 64
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
Like Oklahoma State, West Virginia struggles mightily on the defensive glass, making this an ideal matchup for David McCormack. Even though he’s labored in some other offensive areas, McCormack remains an elite offensive rebounder (sixth nationally), so this seems like a good spot for a double-double from him.
Last game prediction: Kansas 83, Iowa State 63 (Actual: KU 62-61) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 4-11
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 134-116-3 (54%)
