Quick Scout: Kansas Jayhawks will face tough road setting vs. Colorado. Here’s why
Update: KU basketball’s game against Colorado has been canceled because of COVID positives on the Buffaloes’ roster.
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 7 Kansas at Colorado, 8 p.m. Central, Coors Events Center, Boulder, Colorado
TV/Streaming: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 9-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 77
Point spread: Kansas by 9 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Size: Colorado ranks 26th in KenPom’s average height measure, and its starting lineup features 6-8, 6-9 and 6-10 at the 3-5 spots.
• Drawing contact: The Buffaloes are 11th nationally in offensive free throw rate and also are an above-average shooting team at the line (73%).
• Rebounding ... both ends: Colorado ranks top 80 in both offensive and defensive board rates, though the team has been slightly better in that facet on the defensive end.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Three-point shooting: Colorado is one of the nation’s most three-averse teams, and even with that choosiness, it’s only shooting 31% this season from long range.
• Defensive pressure: The Buffaloes defensively play an overall passive style, ranking 203rd in turnover percentage and 269th in steal rate.
• Half-court offense: Colorado’s shooting percentages drop off more significantly than most teams in non-transition settings, as it ranks 260th in adjusted shooting percentage on non-fast breaks.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-9 forward Jabari Walker (No. 12)
Plus: Team’s go-to player offensively
Plus: Excellent rebounder who especially thrives on defensive glass
Plus: Draws lots of fouls and is 75% career free-throw shooter
Plus: Efficient player in transition
Plus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “very good” overall defender
Minus: Has been poor from three this year (9-for-37) but was much better a season ago (23-for-44), so I’d still be hesitant to leave him wide open
Minus: Poor finisher at the rim in half-court settings (47%)
PREDICTION
Man, it’s probably time to start fading the Quick Scout pick to guarantee yourself money.
I’ve been ice cold in this space, and that includes a total whiff last game in KU’s close win against Stephen F. Austin.
Not surprisingly, it’s tough for me to get a good gauge on this one, given recent predictions. Colorado has been worse than expectations, but it also features the type of funky lineup filled with multiple big men that KU hasn’t gone against much this season.
The Jayhawks certainly need to be worried about the glass. They were only so-so in that area last contest against Stephen F. Austin, and as a whole, the Buffaloes are the best team on the boards that KU has faced.
Altitude also should play a factor. KU had a high-workload game for its starters Saturday, and though coach Bill Self has mostly avoided talking about the mile-high air when his teams have gone to Boulder in the past ... it’s still a challenge, as evidenced by Colorado ranking No. 1 in KenPom’s home-court advantage measure.
If there’s one thing to like for KU in this game, it’ll be the crowd. Western Kansas residents always seem to make their way across the border to cheer on the ’Hawks, and given the Buffs’ struggles, it wouldn’t be surprising if the crowd was somewhere close to 50-50.
I still feel like the slight edge on the cover needs to go to Colorado. KU struggled mightily with interior defense last game, and though a stretch of extra practices is coming, Self likely couldn’t fix much with such a quick turnaround here.
This also feels like a contest where dead legs could hurt KU. Pay particular attention to Ochai Agbaji (39 minutes), Remy Martin (36) and Christian Braun (35), who had the highest minutes totals Saturday.
Kansas 75, Colorado 69
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Colorado
HAWK TO ROCK
He doesn’t get put in this spot often, but Dajuan Harris has an opportunity for a high-assist game if fully recovered from the illness he was playing through Saturday. Colorado has left some openings with cutters and kick-out threes when defending ball screens, and Harris is KU’s best bet to read those plays and find the open man.
Last game prediction: Kansas 91, Stephen F. Austin 63 (Actual: KU 80-72) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 3-7
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 133-112-3 (54%)
This story was originally published December 21, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
