Quick Scout: A KU Jayhawks-Stephen F. Austin pick aiming for better than half-right
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: Stephen F. Austin vs. No. 7 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 8-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 154
Point spread: Kansas by 22.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Defensive aggressiveness: Stephen F. Austin rates well in “activity” stats defensively, ranking top 35 nationally in block percentage and steal rate.
• Easy baskets: Former KU assistant and current Stephen F. Austin coach Kyle Keller — using some old Bill Self plays — has a team laser-focused on getting close shots while leading in the nation in the percentage of field-goal attempts it gets at the rim.
• Second chances: Stephen F. Austin ranks 317th in average height, but that hasn’t affected it on the offensive glass, where it’s pulled down 35% of its misses (29th nationally).
3 WEAKNESSES
• Allowing easy shots: The Lumberjacks gambling defensive style leaves them vulnerable on the back end, as opponents have gotten 43% of their shot attempts at the rim — the 26th-highest mark for any defense.
• Defensive rebounding: Stephen F. Austin has struggled to end defensive possessions, ranking 306th in D-board percentage.
• Three-point frequency: Keller’s team shoots a decent percentage from three — 36% — but it barely attempts any outside shots while force-feeding things inside.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-7 forward Gavin Kensmil (No. 14)
Plus: Team’s go-to player offensively
Plus: Thrives with clearing space in post-up settings
Plus: One of nation’s best at drawing fouls and getting to free-throw line
Plus: Strong on offensive glass
Plus: Excellent finisher at rim
Minus: Turns it over often
Minus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “below average” defender who especially struggles when pulled away from the basket in spot-up and iso settings
Minus: Just a 61% career free-throw shooter
PREDICTION
Hopefully, you have not been following the advice here lately, as the Quick Scout crystal ball has been a bit murky.
Though this space has predicted the exact score for a pair of teams in the last two games (KU’s 78 points vs. UTEP and Missouri’s 65 vs. KU), the other squad’s total has been way off, leaving the against-the-spread picks as losers.
This contest is interesting in that while Stephen F. Austin plays a different style than what KU has faced recently, the quality of opponent is similar to the Jayhawks’ previous matchup. SFA is 154th in KenPom’s rankings, which is one spot behind ... Missouri, which KU defeated 102-65 in a home game last Saturday.
The Lumberjacks will pressure defensively. They love to overplay passing lanes, which has either led to quick steals or fast opportunities for opposing teams to get good looks.
On offense, meanwhile, Keller loves his Self-stolen plays in the post, where the offense centers around Kensmil and his ability to clear angles for easy shots.
This game should be up-tempo, which would play into KU’s favor, especially at Allen Fieldhouse. And while Stephen F. Austin doesn’t press much, it’s not guaranteed to find success with its aggressive defensive style either, as Self has a bevy of point-guard types he can put on the floor to counter that feistiness.
Even liking how KU stacks up here ... 22 points is a lot to cover, and the Jayhawks have been inconsistent in closing out games. Self has limited his bench in recent games, though, while also more hesitant to substitute just because.
This feels like a game where KU can play the pace it likes while also exposing the gambling nature of Stephen F. Austin’s defense. I think the Jayhawks get their total to the 90s, which would make a cover likely.
Kansas 91, Stephen F. Austin 63
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
Break the first wave of pressure and make a couple of passes, and there will be open threes available against Stephen F. Austin. No reason, then, to move away from Ochai Agbaji in this spot, as he should get plenty of good looks if teammates continue their unselfish ways.
Last game prediction: Kansas 76, Missouri 65 (Actual: KU 102-65) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 3-6
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 133-111-3 (55%)
