Quick Scout: Here’s Missouri Tigers’ path to keep it close vs. KU Jayhawks basketball
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: Missouri vs. No. 8 Kansas, 2:15 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 5-4
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 139
Point spread: Kansas by 22.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Rebounding: Missouri has excelled in this area on both ends, ranking top 40 nationally in offensive and defensive rebounding percentages.
• Creating havoc: The Tigers have pressured well defensively while creating turnovers on 21% of opponents’ possessions (75th-best mark nationally).
• Grinding defensively: Mizzou has done an excellent job getting back in transition while also forcing late-clock shots from opponents; average possession length against the Tigers is 19 seconds, which is the 17th-highest total for any defense.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Three-point shooting: Poor outside shooting is something that can change quickly in a one-game setting, but so far, Missouri has made just 24% of its threes while also not attempting many perimeter tries overall.
• Carelessness: The Tigers rank 313rd in offensive turnover percentage, with more of their mistakes coming from non-steal giveaways like travels, charges or throwing the ball out of bounds.
• Ball screen offense: Mizzou’s efficiency numbers in pick-and-roll settings have been poor, with Synergy’s numbers showing a lack of efficiency and a high number of turnovers in that setting.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-8 forward Kobe Brown (No. 24)
Plus: Team’s go-to player offensively
Plus: Gets fouled often
Plus: Excellent defensive rebounder
Plus: Has been well-above-average mid-range shooter this year
Plus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “very good” defender
Plus: Active defensively with good steal and block numbers
Minus: Turns it over too often
Minus: Not much of a three-point shooter; has attempted 19 this season and has 26% accuracy for his career
PREDICTION
It’s not popular to like Missouri’s chances at keeping this one close, mainly because KU fans think the Jayhawks will win by a bunch, and Tigers fans don’t seem to like their team and also appear to be expecting the worst.
One Power Five team blowing another out is difficult, though, and while Mizzou has been inconsistent offensively, it has shown some positive signs defensively that could help in this one.
Most notably: The Tigers are third-best nationally when it comes to limiting opponents’ points per possession in transition (via Synergy), and that counters against KU’s greatest strength offensively, which has been scoring on the run.
Missouri needs to limit its turnovers, but if it can turn this into a half-court affair, I like the Tigers’ chances of keeping this closer than Vegas expects. I also don’t think Mizzou will shoot it this poorly from three all season, and just a little more good fortune in that regard Saturday could go a long way toward making this matchup respectable.
Kansas 76, Missouri 65
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Missouri
HAWK TO ROCK
It appears that Missouri’s defense tends to lose three-point shooters, especially when they are coming off screens. That makes it a good matchup for Ochai Agbaji, who is KU’s top perimeter scoring threat.
Last game prediction: Kansas 78, UTEP 68 (Actual: KU 78-52) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 3-5
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 133-110-3 (55%)
This story was originally published December 11, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
