Quick Scout: USC Trojans have a can’t-miss strength. How KU Jayhawks can counter that
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: No. 3 seed Kansas vs. No. 6 seed USC, 8:40 p.m., Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
TV: CBS
Opponent’s record: 23-7
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 9
Point spread: USC by 1.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Rim protection: USC, which ranks second in average height according to KenPom’s measure, is excellent at restricting shots at the rim (29th nationally) and also limiting accuracy on those attempts (eighth nationally).
• Extra chances: The Trojans rank 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, while also improving their numbers there during Pac-12 play.
• Foul avoidance: USC has a rare combination defensively; it’s 18th in block rate but also 26th in defensive free throw rate, meaning it does a great job of challenging inside without fouling.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Defensive pressure: Much like Eastern Washington, USC plays a passive defensive style, rating 267th in defensive turnover percentage and 311th in defensive steal rate.
• Three-point frequency: The Trojans can make threes — they’ve shot 35% there for the season — but they just don’t shoot many of them, ranking 308th in three-point rate.
• Free throw shooting: USC does a great job of getting to the line, but it has made only 65% of its shots there (328th nationally); also, only one rotation player (Tahj Eaddy) is shooting better than 70% on freebies.
PLAYER TO WATCH
7-foot forward Evan Mobley (No. 4)
Plus: Ranks fifth on KenPom’s national player of the year ranking and also is Pac-12’s best player
Plus: Go-to guy offensively with excellent efficiency
Plus: Elite shot-blocker who averages only 2.1 fouls per 40 minutes
Plus: Outstanding finisher at the rim
Plus: Dangerous scorer in transition
Plus: Has good face-up game and is above-average from mid-range with an ability to hit threes too
Minus: Probably could still stand to be even a touch more aggressive on offense given his strong efficiency numbers
Minus: Struggles to score in traditional post-up scenarios where he ranks in the 20th percentile efficiency-wise, according to Synergy
PREDICTION
As predicted on Selection Sunday, KU’s “unlucky” draw in the second round resulted in the team being a 1-point underdog in its round of 32 contest.
USC — the predictive numbers would tell us — is darned good. The Trojans shut down nearly every possible avenue for their opponents to get easy baskets by getting back in transition, limiting dribble drives to the rim, avoiding fouls and also doing a solid job on the defensive glass.
The Trojans are less impressive offensively but still plenty good. On that end they don’t have amazing shot selection but let their athleticism play up, crashing the offensive glass hard and getting enough whistles to make up for overall poor free-throw shooting.
In a strange way, I don’t hate the actual matchup for KU offensively. The Jayhawks have struggled all season to get easy baskets ... and, well, USC probably wasn’t giving those up anyway. This Jayhawks team also has been poor in transition but that shouldn’t matter much either, as the Trojans were going to have that aspect covered regardless.
KU, in other words, shouldn’t have to shift how it plays too much. Over the second half of the season, the Jayhawks have mostly tried to play the shot volume game offensively, relying on a mix of low turnovers, offensive rebounding and three-point hopes to try to maximize their ceiling on that end.
Nothing should change here. KU should shoot a lot of threes, work to not over-drive and also strive to out-tough USC on the boards in an effort to score efficiently against a defense that doesn’t give you close ones.
Defensively, the Jayhawks’ focus has to be on Evan Mobley (his brother Isaiah is a forward on the team as well). The projected top-two pick in this year’s NBA Draft is amazingly fluid for a 7-footer, able to hurt teams at different times as a roller, cutter, shooter, rebounder and even ball-handler. It’s a tough matchup for David McCormack — or really anyone on KU’s roster, given Mobley’s talent.
USC isn’t invincible, though. It’s mostly going to score two at a time, and it probably won’t succeed at drawing fouls like it normally does against KU, which does a good job of avoiding whistles in its own right.
This should be a great game between two evenly matched teams. My slight lean here goes to KU, however, while believing the Jayhawks will keep their turnovers low and make some outside shots while not having to change their offensive style for this specific opponent.
Kansas 65, USC 62
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
Move the ball a bit with drives and quick passes, and you can get a high number of assisted spot-up three attempts against USC’s defense. The Jayhawks still will need someone to knock those down ... so Ochai Agbaji, this is your night. The guard has been KU’s best on spot-ups all season, and if he’s hitting Monday, KU might just find itself in the Sweet 16.
Last game prediction: Kansas 74, Eastern Washington 67 (Actual: KU 93-84) ✔️
2020-21 record vs. spread: 11-17
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 130-104-3
