Quick Scout: Why KU basketball’s next opponent Oklahoma is an advanced stats outlier
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Thursday’s game: No. 25 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Kansas, 5:30 p.m., T-Mobile Center, Kansas City
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 15-9
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 38
Point spread: Kansas by 3.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Ball security: Lon Kruger’s teams typically do a great job of getting a shot every possession, and this roster has thrived with that while posting the lowest offensive turnover rate in Big 12 play.
• Foul avoidance: The Sooners are 11th nationally when it comes to limiting opponents’ free throw attempts.
• Interior defense: Oklahoma ranks top 50 in two-point percentage defense, and that area has been helped by the team’s ability to force opponents into an above-average number of mid-range jumpers.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Second chances: Oklahoma mostly deserts the offensive glass to get back in transition defense, while ranking ninth in league play in O-board percentage.
• Three-point defense: The Sooners have allowed a higher number of three-pointers than an average team, and 36% of the points scored against them have come from perimeter shots (42nd-highest split nationally).
• Three-point shooting: Oklahoma attempts a lot of threes, but it hasn’t been great at making them lately with just 32% accuracy in conference play.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-5 guard Austin Reaves (No. 12)
Plus: Team’s go-to guy offensively
Plus: Does excellent job creating contact and is 87% free throw shooter
Plus: Strong passer
Plus: Well-above-average mid-range shooter
Plus: Thrives in isolation and pick-and-roll ball-handler situations
Minus: Just a 28% shooter from three-point range, but he still takes quite a few
Minus: Poor overall finisher at the rim
Minus: Will turn it over some
PREDICTION
The official Quick Scout prediction is 0 for its last 4 with against-the-spread picks, which has all but sewn up the worst prognostication season since starting this exercise seven years ago.
In short, the crystal ball has been a little murky lately ... but maybe that all will change with the postseason starting.
KU will be without David McCormack and Tristan Enaruna because of COVID protocols, and while that’s significant, betting history would tell us that kind of development isn’t likely to swing the Vegas line more than a point or two.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, will have the advantage of having already played a game in the Big 12 Tournament following its victory over Iowa State. The Sooners also won’t have to go up against as heavy of a pro-KU crowd at T-Mobile Center as they might have in Big 12 Tournaments past.
Though Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik’s projections both like KU by about three points, the numbers at new site ShotQuality.com are much higher on Oklahoma while ranking the team seventh nationally (and also above KU) based on the shot attempts it has taken and given up thus far.
The ShotQuality data — to this point — appears to have had some amount of predictive value, seeming to look past some amount of luck factors each game to get closer toward the true quality of each team.
Oklahoma, if those numbers do reflect reality, could be due for just a touch of positive regression. If that comes in the form of a few more threes against KU — or perhaps the Jayhawks making one or two fewer — then it’s not to difficult to see a close one going the Sooners’ way.
Oklahoma 74, Kansas 71
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Oklahoma
HAWK TO ROCK
I’ll stick with KU’s best three-point shooter in this spot, meaning Ochai Agbaji is the pick. He’ll need some help to get open ones from teammates like Marcus Garrett and Dajuan Harris kicking it out, but if that happens, Agbaji should have a great chance to lead KU in scoring.
Last game prediction: Kansas 81, UTEP 57 (Actual: KU 67-62) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 10-16
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 129-103-3
This story was originally published March 11, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
