Quick Scout: K-State Wildcats’ best hope is going after KU Jayhawks in this area
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Wednesday’s game: No. 23 Kansas at Kansas State, 7 p.m., Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 5-17
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 191
Point spread: Kansas by 13.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Rebounding ... both ends: For the season, Kansas State has been better than NCAA average on both the offensive and defensive glass.
• Close shots: The Wildcats rank 95th in accuracy on shots at the rim, though they’re getting fewer attempts there than seasons past.
• Foul avoidance: K-State doesn’t do much well defensively, but it has hung right around national and Big 12 average when it comes to keeping opponents off the free throw line.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Three-point defense: During conference play, K-State has allowed the highest percentage of three-point attempts to opponents while watching as 40% of those shots have gone in.
• Ball security: The Wildcats have good assist numbers but are awful when it comes to giveaways, ranking 321st nationally in offensive turnover percentage.
• Transition defense: K-State actually limits fast-break attempts decently well, but when they happen, opponents have been super-efficient, scoring 1.13 points per possession in those scenarios (318th-ranked defense nationally in those spots).
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot guard Nijel Pack (No. 24)
Plus: By far the team’s most efficient offensive player
Plus: High-volume three-point shooter who has made 44% there
Plus: Strong passer
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Minus: Non-physical player who almost never gets to free-throw line
Minus: Struggles to be efficient in pick-and-roll settings when he’s the ball-handler
Minus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “below average” overall defender
PREDICTION
K-State has struggled in almost every area during Big 12 play, and this rivalry game appears to have a bleaker outlook than previous ones simply because fewer fans will be allowed in Bramlage Coliseum.
Honestly, though, these Wildcats don’t get fouled often and aren’t necessarily equipped to take advantage of a few more shooting fouls that might go their way. K-State has mostly been a non-physical jump-shooting team (when it doesn’t turn the ball over), meaning this final deficit should hinge quite a bit on how the shooting percentages play out.
This is a somewhat scary opponent for KU because K-State isn’t afraid to fire from three. That’s been the biggest weakness of the Jayhawks’ defense, and during a recent 2-5 stretch, the team’s biggest bugaboo was simply watching opponents cash in on a bunch of threes whether they were guarded or not.
The Wildcats have shot poorly from the outside this season — 31% — but that number can fluctuate in a one-game sample. KU’s defense has been excellent during a three-game winning streak, but part of that also has simply been that a few more opponent outside shots haven’t been going down like they were before.
KU has had troubling scoring droughts lately, but honestly, that shouldn’t happen often Tuesday. K-State doesn’t do much well on that end while ranking last in conference play in almost every defensive shooting category. The Jayhawks, though not great in transition themselves, also should be able to get a few free points directly from K-State offensive mistakes and the subsequent transition baskets with no one around.
I don’t think I would stray too far from the line in this one, feeling like it’s about right. Asked to choose, I’ll lean KU, believing the team’s recent defensive success will continue while banking that K-State won’t shoot well from three ... though that’s obviously something that could easily happen.
Kansas 72, Kansas State 57
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
This spot is typically reserved for numbers and statistical analysis, but we’ll forego that just once here. Christian Braun — a Kansas native — has made 12 of 23 threes in three games against K-State and always seems to save his best for this rivalry game. He hasn’t scored 20 points or more since Jan. 1 ... but let’s go ahead and predict he does on Wednesday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 72, Iowa State 65 (Actual: KU 64-50) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 9-12
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 128-99-3
