Quick Scout: Why KU Jayhawks might have more answers for Oklahoma State’s top player
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: Oklahoma State at Kansas, 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 12-5
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 33
Point spread: Not set.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Transition offense: Oklahoma State loves to run, ranking 30th in shot volume on fast-break attempts with better-than-NCAA-average accuracy on those tries.
▪ Interior defense: The Cowboys allow some shots at the rim but defend them well, ranking 48th in close-shot field-goal percentage defense and 62nd in block rate.
▪ Getting to the line: Oklahoma State has posted the top offensive free throw rate in the Big 12 since league play began, though the team’s season percentage at the line is a below-average 69%.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Carelessness: Oklahoma State has an enormous turnover rate that ranks 255th nationally and has remained steady since conference play began.
▪ Defensive rebounding: The Cowboys are a bottom-half team nationally when it comes to cleaning up the defensive glass, with only Kalib Boone ranking in the top 500 nationally in individual D-board percentage.
▪ Three-point volume: Oklahoma State has a just-fine 34% accuracy on three-pointers, but it just rarely shoots them; the Cowboys rank 302nd in three-point attempt frequency with no individual attempting more than 63 through 17 games.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-9 forward Kalib Boone (No. 22)
Plus: Started five straight games for the Cowboys
Plus: Athletic player who does majority of his offensive damage at the rim
Plus: Excellent offensive rebounder
Plus: Strong shot-blocker
Plus: Does great job drawing shooting fouls
Minus: Synergy’s logs list him as “poor” overall defender who especially struggles to get out to shooters on the perimeter
Minus: Can be turnover prone
PREDICTION
We’re back on a two-game losing streak with the Quick Scout’s against-the-spread pick, but that’s coming to an end here(!) because this one is going to be spot-on (I think ... or at least, I hope).
KU — as I’ve written a lot lately — is a weird team to try to figure out. Opponents have shot 42% from three against the Jayhawks since Jan. 1, which is the third-highest mark for any high-major school ... and a number that should naturally come down over time.
In the short term, though, it’s clouded both the judgment of how KU’s played lately and also potentially how good it might be in the weeks ahead.
Because honestly, the Jayhawks have posted three good offensive games in a row, even if the high number of turnovers against West Virginia on Saturday was concerning. Over that larger sample, though, KU has done a better job of getting the ball to shooters while also flashing signs of improved ball security with solid activity on the offensive glass. All those haven’t shown up in each game, but getting pieces of each has led to three good-enough offensive performances that should work just fine if KU’s defense reverts to its previous form.
Oklahoma State, meanwhile, probably won’t be tricky with its offensive gameplan. Coach Mike Boynton tried to put likely No. 1 draft pick Cade Cunningham in lots of ball screen scenarios in the first matchup, looking to expose KU big man David McCormack on the perimeter while also playing to Cunningham’s excellent vision and passing abilities.
It worked then — Cunningham carved up KU, with the Jayhawks only making a late run after coach Bill Self went zone in the second half in the Cowboys’ 75-70 win — but might not be as successful Monday. That’s because Self has made some tweaks to help McCormack defensively, choosing to have him remain back in the lane on ball-screen attempts — a more passive coverage but one that has played better to the big man’s strengths.
Fatigue could be a factor. It’s a short turnaround, and Self pushed his starters Saturday while only playing his bench guys a combined 25 minutes. Oklahoma State might also feel the effects, fresh off a double-overtime win on Saturday over Texas where four players logged 40 minutes or more.
I actually like KU in this spot, figuring Oklahoma State shouldn’t have the same three-point mojo as KU’s previous foes. Turnovers will be key for the Jayhawks again — they were killers against West Virginia — but if KU can keep hold of it decently well, I like its chances at a convincing home win.
Kansas 71, Oklahoma State 61
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
It’s a great matchup for David McCormack, as he’s going against a team that struggles against shot-blockers, doesn’t do a great job on the defensive glass and also can be foul prone. McCormack can potentially take advantage of all those weaknesses, while also getting to go up against Boone, who will block some shots but has some defensive issues outside that. Look for KU to try to establish McCormack early to see how Boynton responds.
Last game prediction: Kansas 76, West Virginia 71 (Actual: West Virginia 91-79) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 7-11
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 126-98-3
