Quick Scout: Here’s West Virginia’s major change since last time it faced KU Jayhawks
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 23 Kansas at No. 17 West Virginia, 1 p.m., WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, W.Va.
TV: CBS
Opponent’s record: 12-5
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 21
Point spread: West Virginia by 2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Offensive rebounding: Coach Bob Huggins’ West Virginia teams have finished top 10 in this statistic each of the last six seasons, and this year’s team has been elite here as well, ranking ninth nationally in O-board percentage.
▪ Ball security: The Mountaineers have the 60th-best offensive turnover rate, though that number has ticked up noticeably since Big 12 play began.
▪ Foul avoidance: West Virginia, which ranked bottom 100 in defensive free-throw rate for six straight years, has flipped that this season with the 90th-lowest defensive free-throw rate nationally.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Shot selection: West Virginia shoots a large volume of inefficient mid-range jumpers while not making many of them; as a result, the team has made just 43% of its twos overall in conference play.
▪ Defensive rebounding: Derek Culver is elite at this skill, but he’s hasn’t gotten much help from teammates, as the Mountaineers rank 263rd in D-board rate.
▪ Transition defense: This is part of the cost for sending so many guys to the offensive glass; West Virginia allows a high number of fastbreak opportunities, with opponents shooting around NCAA average on those tries.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-2 guard Miles McBride (No. 4)
Plus: Among West Virginia’s most efficient offensive players
Plus: Team’s best passer
Plus: 41% outside shooter
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Excellent at swiping steals
Minus: Probably still isn’t aggressive enough shooting threes given his accuracy (he’s made 17 of 34 in league play)
Minus: Shoots a lot of mid-range jumpers and is only about NCAA average at making them
PREDICTION
West Virginia has become a different team since Oscar Tshiebwe announced his transfer at the start of 2021.
The Mountaineers are playing one-big-man lineups now as opposed to two, while also opening up offensively to shoot way more threes than they were before.
Overall, though, they have dropped in advanced rankings since this change. West Virginia’s defense has gotten markedly worse, allowing a higher number of threes while also providing less resistance to opponents at the rim.
KU, meanwhile, showed some positive signs in its last win over Kansas State. The Jayhawks continue to get better defensively — especially inside and against ball screens — while improving their offensive floor with better ball security as of late.
Coach Bill Self mentioned the importance of avoiding turnovers against West Virginia earlier this week, and that should be a big key. The Jayhawks have just 13 combined giveaways in their last two games, and more often than not, the contests that have gotten away from them in Morgantown did so because West Virginia ramped up the defensive pressure in a chaotic atmosphere.
It won’t be as crazy Saturday. West Virginia will only have 1,500 fans at WVU Coliseum, and even with the team pressuring more lately, the reduction in fouls means it should be easier for KU to withstand some defensive heat.
The Mountaineers certainly seem like they could be shooting a bit over their heads from three-point range in the last month, while it feels like the Jayhawks are well below their ceiling in that same area, especially with the number of open looks they’ve gotten.
I like KU to have the better shot selection than West Virginia on Saturday, and if the Jayhawks can mostly avoid turnovers, I also like their chances of pulling off a mini road upset.
Kansas 76, West Virginia 71
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
This was the pick last game too, but it’s worth doubling up on Ochai Agbaji given the matchup. West Virginia allows a lot of spot-up threes, struggles in transition and also has had issues with defending top 2-guards on other Big 12 teams. Look for Agbaji to lead the Jayhawks in scoring.
Last game prediction: Kansas 72, K-State 57 (Actual: Kansas 74-51) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 7-10
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 126-97-3
