Want KU Jayhawks optimism after K-State win? This Self specialty is happening (again)
It’s not popular to be bullish about Kansas men’s basketball at this point, especially after the team dropped to its lowest ranking in the Associated Press poll since 2009 earlier this week.
Yet KU’s workmanlike 74-51 victory over Kansas State on Tuesday provided another example of how the Jayhawks could still find a path to success moving forward.
It involves a Bill Self staple.
And though this team differs from many of Self’s past ... it still resembles many of his best when it comes to one particular quality that has elevated most of his rosters over 18 seasons.
This goes without saying, but the top of the Big 12 has great defenses. Baylor’s lineup is switchable with all-league-type defenders in Mark Vital and Davion Mitchell. Texas Tech is once again excellent on that end under coach Chris Beard. Texas has lots of length and athleticism, while Oklahoma’s recent surge there led to three straight top-10 victories.
That’s all a setup, though, to ask this: Which team leads the Big 12 during conference play in two-point percentage defense?
Hint: It’s not the team ranked second, sixth, ninth or 13th in the latest AP poll.
Instead, it’s KU, which has held league opponents to 45% shooting inside the arc.
That’s more important than you might think. Analyst Ken Pomeroy has extensively studied which basketball statistics the defense has most control over, and one of his main takeaways is this:
“The defense’s tools are two-point defense and influencing shot selection.”
It seems especially relevant for this year’s KU team, especially because of recent events.
The Jayhawks’ defensive numbers, to be frank, have swung wildly based on fate. Division I opponents made 29% of their threes against KU in eight November and December games, then 42% of those attempts during an eight-game stretch in January.
Put on our thinking caps, and we can reason the main difference between the two periods of time is more about luck than it is KU. In fact, Pomeroy’s study found that three-point percentage allowed was the second-least influence-able statistic on the defensive end, behind only free-throw percentage ... which obviously is made up of shots that aren’t allowed to be defended.
Coaches talk all the time about wanting to “control the controllables.” If we take an honest look at KU, the team has done that pretty well defensively, even if the results haven’t always been favorable to this point.
K-State had its own share of issues against KU on Tuesday; just 11 of the Wildcats’ 53 field-goal attempts were at the rim, with the Jayhawks limiting them to 41% overall shooting inside.
And though KU no doubt has struggled on the offensive end at times ... Self and staff deserve some credit for recently calming the waters on defense. Earlier in the season, the Jayhawks were getting toasted on ball screens when center David McCormack tried to shuffle with opposing guards in space. Previously, Self switched to zone to keep him in the paint, then also had instances where he had McCormack double-team the ball-handler while trying to create some havoc.
Neither of those proved to be long-term solutions. Lately, though, KU has elected more drop-type coverage, having McCormack sag into the lane on ball screens to surrender overall inefficient mid-range jumpers while also allowing him to more quickly recover to his man.
It’s worked. Not only is McCormack thriving more as a rim-protector close to the basket — KU leads the conference in block rate as well — but he’s also avoided the perimeter mismatches that previously gave the Jayhawks fits.
Self has made it clear recently that he wants this team’s identity to be on the defensive end, and given a greater sample, the Jayhawks could be on their way to pushing themselves toward elite numbers there.
After Tuesday’s effort, KU ranks 21st in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency measure, while also only a rounding error from the top 15. If opponents’ three-point shooting balances out over time — as we’d expect — then it’s easy to think some shooting-against misfortune might be camouflaging some major progress there.
KU was sound against K-State. The Jayhawks’ communication was better with switches, while their sorting was improved in transition, which forced the Wildcats to manufacture most of their offense in five-on-five settings.
That’s not easy to do against this KU team. Making threes is the best way, but simply expecting to shoot 42% from the perimeter against the Jayhawks — like what happened in January — is more of a prayer than it is a plan.
Here’s a snapshot of KU’s defense now: It’s stingy inside, doesn’t foul often, is strong on the defensive glass and is about average at forcing turnovers. Combine that together, and you have the makings of a unit that could be special in the weeks and months ahead.
The Jayhawks are still looking for more consistency on offense. And they’d love to continue to improve their outside shooting as well.
For now, though, the defense appears trending in the right direction.
While backed by the stats that matter the most.
This story was originally published February 3, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
