Quick Scout: Here’s the big wildcard in the KU Jayhawks-K-State Wildcats matchup
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: Kansas State at No. 23 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/Stream: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 5-13
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 184
Point spread: Kansas by 18.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Scoring at the rim: The Wildcats are just below average at creating easy shots, but when they do get them, they’re 81st in accuracy on those attempts.
▪ Offensive rebounding: Kansas State crashes the offensive glass well, ranking 83rd in O-board percentage while helped especially by contributions from Antonio Gordon and Davion Bradford.
▪ Pressure defense: K-State’s defense is right around NCAA average when it comes to creating turnovers, while specializing in forcing non-steal ones like ball-handling errors and offensive fouls.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Three-point shooting: This was Tennessee’s weakness too, but ... K-State shoots a high volume of three-pointers, while making only 30% on the season and 26% in Big 12 play.
▪ Carelessness: Though the Wildcats have nice assist numbers, they are likely over-passing at times as well, ranking 321st in offensive turnover percentage.
▪ Three-point defense: K-State has the double whammy of allowing a large number of threes while seeing its opponents make 39% of those tries.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot guard Nijel Pack (No. 24)
Plus: Unquestionably K-State’s top offensive player
Plus: Team’s best passer
Plus: 42% outside shooter
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Minus: Doesn’t shoot as often as he should given his efficiency
Minus: Almost never draws contact to get to the line
Minus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “below average” defender who especially struggles against pick-and-roll ball-handlers
PREDICTION
This is another game that’s difficult to predict without thinking about the threes.
KU faced poor-shooting Tennessee on Saturday and was knocked out early when the Volunteers made 5 of 7 first-half perimeter shots on their way to 8-for-13 accuracy. KU, meanwhile, made just 30% of its threes in eight combined January games, though common sense would tell us that number should rise soon.
Will that come together this game for KU, though? Can the Jayhawks hit some at home, while looking to avoid another not-so-good shooting team going Steph Curry from the outside?
Here’s the good news for KU: It figures to be way better than K-State in many other areas. The Jayhawks should be able to create some turnovers, while the Wildcats also will provide less resistance inside than any team KU has faced lately.
Eighteen still feels like a lot of points to cover, though, especially for a KU team that’s only reached the mediocre bar of 1.0 points per possession in one of its last six contests.
I don’t see the Wildcats scoring well against the Jayhawks. Even with that, though, KU will likely have to get to the high-70s or better to come away with a cover.
At this point, it’s probably a bit ambitious to think the Jayhawks will get there, meaning I’ll lean towards the Wildcats when it comes to the Vegas line.
Kansas 72, K-State 57
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: K-State
HAWK TO ROCK
It would be a big benefit for KU if Ochai Agbaji immediately forgets about his rough shooting game against Tennessee. K-State struggles to guard threes and also has issues with allowing high-percentage shots in transition, which lines up perfectly with Agbaji’s two best offensive strengths. Look for the junior to record his second 20-plus-point game of the season on Tuesday.
Last game prediction: Tennessee 71, Kansas 62 (Actual: Tennessee 80-61) ✔️
2020-21 record vs. spread: 7-9
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 126-96-3
