Quick Scout: This could be KU Jayhawks’ best game plan vs. Tennessee’s elite defense
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 15 Kansas at No. 18 Tennessee, 5 p.m., Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, Tennessee
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 11-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 19
Point spread: Tennessee by 2 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Defensive disruption: Tennessee ranks 10th in defensive turnover rate, while forcing opponents into an especially large number of mistakes that result in dead-ball giveaways.
▪ Rim protection: The Volunteers are athletic around the rim, ranking fourth nationally in block percentage while led by ultra-bouncy wing Yves Pons.
▪ Ball security: Tennessee typically gets up great shot volume with the 48th-best offensive turnover rate nationally.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Three-point shooting: Tennessee barely shoots perimeter shots and hasn’t been accurate on those rare tries either; the team has hit 32% of its threes, which ranks 296th nationally.
▪ Defensive rebounding: This is a rare negative with Tennessee’s second-ranked overall defense; the Volunteers are only average at clearing defensive rebounds, with those numbers getting drastically worse during SEC play.
▪ Offensive rebounding(?): Though this was a huge strength for Tennessee early — and still grades out above average for the season — the Volunteers’ offensive rebounding has tapered off significantly since league play began.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-6 guard Josiah-Jordan James (No. 5)
Plus: Active player defensively with high steal rate
Plus: Excellent shot-blocker for his size
Plus: Strong offensive rebounder
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Efficient overall player
Minus: Has a limited offensive role; not a go-to guy on that end
Minus: Below-average finisher at the rim
PREDICTION
On first appearance, it would seem like Tennessee is getting KU at an opportune time.
The Jayhawks, because of a rescheduled game this week, had only one day to prepare for the Volunteers while also having to travel. Not only that, KU’s offense didn’t show much in Thursday’s 59-51 win over TCU, with turnovers and shot selection weighing as huge issues for a Jayhawks team that mustered just 18 first-half points.
Tennessee, though, has been in a bit of a funk as well results-wise. It fell from sixth to 19th in KenPom’s rankings over its last three games, which included non-competitive losses to both Florida and Missouri.
There are some positives, though. The Volunteers appear to have been affected by some short-term bad shooting luck, which is unlikely to stick. The defense also remains elite, as the team’s athleticism and aggressive style have continued to make opponents uncomfortable.
The Jayhawks’ best strategy, to me, would be to simply get shots up. Tennessee allows an above-average number of threes and also can struggle on the defensive glass, so a “shoot it before you turn it over” mantra might be the best plan of attack on a night when the Volunteers’ guards will be hounding for steals.
Could KU make a bunch of threes? Sure. Getting Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun hot from deep seems like one of the best paths toward a KU victory.
It’s hard to predict that based on how the Jayhawks have been playing, though, especially with the team’s greater emphasis on an inside-out approach. This seems like a game where KU will have troubles withstanding Tennessee’s pressure ... and if the Volunteers turn their shooting woes around, they should have a great shot at pulling away.
Tennessee 71, Kansas 62
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Tennessee
HAWK TO ROCK
Tennessee’s defense will likely force KU into contested shots off drives, and Marcus Garrett is the team’s most comfortable player in these settings. It’ll probably be tough for any Jayhawk to be overly efficient Saturday, but Garrett seems as likely as anyone to take high-scoring honors, simply based on the fact he should be shooting a lot.
Last game prediction: Kansas 72, TCU 62 (Actual: Kansas 59-51) ✔️
2020-21 record vs. spread: 6-9
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 125-96-3
