Quick Scout: Why this KU Jayhawks-Oklahoma State prediction could end up looking silly
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 6 Kansas at Oklahoma State, 7 p.m., Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Oklahoma
TV: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 8-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 35
Point spread: Kansas by 3 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Transition frequency: Oklahoma State’s adjusted shooting numbers on fast breaks isn’t exceptional, but the team gets a high volume of those mostly efficient shot attempts, posting the 20th-highest percentage of transition shots nationally.
▪ Rim protection: Oklahoma State is a lot like KU’s previous opponent Oklahoma in terms of defensive philosophy while utilizing strong help on drives; this clogs the lane and makes it difficult for opponents to both attempt and connect on shots at the rim.
▪ Drawing fouls: The Cowboys are excellent on drives and attacking bad closeouts, which has led to the team creating whistles and also attempting a high number of free throws.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Three-point defense: Just like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State’s strong help in the lane means that it doesn’t put an emphasis on stopping threes; the Cowboys are 287th when it comes to limiting three-point attempts, with opponents shooting roughly NCAA average on those tries.
▪ Three-point shooting: Sometimes Cade Cunningham’s outstanding passing ability can go to waste because of Oklahoma State’s lack of shooting; the team attempts a below-average number of perimeter shots, and has made just 32% of those tries thus far.
▪ Defensive rebounding: Oklahoma State mostly has players who are tall and athletic but more on the light side, which is part of the reason the team has been great on the offensive glass while struggling on the defensive boards.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-8 guard Cade Cunningham (No. 2)
Plus: Projected No. 1 overall pick in latest ESPN 2021 NBA mock draft
Plus: Ranks third in KenPom’s Big 12 player of the year standings
Plus: Physical player who gets fouled often and is 82% free throw shooter
Plus: Outstanding passer with excellent vision who thrives as ball-handler in pick-and-rolls
Plus: Strong shot-blocker
Minus: Can be turnover prone
Minus: Too often settles for mid-range jumpers, where he’s had below-average accuracy
PREDICTION
The advanced numbers lean toward Oklahoma State in this spot compared to the Vegas line.
KenPom’s projections have KU by two, while Bart Torvik’s like KU by one. Both see a competitive game, with home court making this contest a near-coin flip.
I see some potential concerns for the Jayhawks here. For one, KU’s switching defense seems to have been better against opponents that rely on passing rather than ones who are better at taking defenders to the rim off the bounce. Oklahoma State is in the latter category, and it also has plenty of athleticism — another attribute that gave KU some fits at times against both Kentucky and Texas.
Much like the last game, the Jayhawks should be able to spring for open threes, but guessing whether they will make them is a fools’ errand at this point. KU has alternated good and bad perimeter shooting games for four games now, and another issue is that this isn’t a great drive-to-pass team yet ... something that would help against Oklahoma State’s specific type of defense.
Add in that this one’s at Gallagher-Iba Arena, where the Jayhawks have historically struggled, and I like the Cowboys. Outside shooting (for both teams) could make me look foolish in the end, but I could see a scenario where Oklahoma State’s athleticism plays up in a game where KU doesn’t attempt or make enough threes.
Oklahoma State 73, Kansas 70
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Oklahoma State
HAWK TO ROCK
After his worst game as a Jayhawk on Saturday, Jalen Wilson appears to have the best matchup for KU when going up against Oklahoma State’s defense. Wilson is one of KU’s best at driving to pass, he can make open threes and he’s also strong on the offensive glass, which should serve him well against the Cowboys. An 18-point, 10-rebound, five-assist kind of night is definitely in the range of possibilities.
Last game prediction: Kansas 82, Oklahoma 71 (Actual: KU 63-59) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 4-7
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 123-94-3
