Quick Scout: Why Oklahoma’s rim protection could come at a cost vs. KU basketball
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: Oklahoma at No. 6 Kansas, 3:30 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: CBS
Opponent’s record: 6-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 44
Point spread: Kansas by 7.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Ball security: Oklahoma gets up a high volume of shots, posting the 36th-lowest offensive turnover percentage nationally.
▪ Foul avoidance: This is a Coach Lon Kruger staple; the Sooners were top three nationally in lowest defensive free-throw rate the last two seasons and are fourth this year.
▪ Transition offense: Oklahoma’s 1.192 points per possession in transition ranks in the 90th percentile via Synergy, with the team’s low turnover percentage helping in this area as well.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Three-point defense: The Sooners utilize an early, strong help defensive style, and while that’s helped their defense at the rim, it’s also resulted in opponents shooting a huge number of threes ... with many of them ending up as open attempts.
▪ Drawing fouls: Oklahoma plays mostly in a non-physical manner, and that shows up in the team’s offensive free-throw rate, which is below NCAA average for a fourth straight season.
▪ Transition defense: The Sooners have given up an above-average number of shots on fastbreaks while ranking 224th in adjusted shooting percentage defense on those tries.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-5 guard Austin Reaves (No. 12)
Plus: Efficient offensive player who takes on large offensive role
Plus: Outstanding passer
Plus: Thrives as ball-handler in pick-and-roll settings and does excellent job attacking big men and finishing at the rim
Plus: Draws fouls at elite level and is 88% free-throw shooter
Plus: Has above-average mid-range accuracy and can make those shots off the dribble
Minus: Poor three-point shooter the last two seasons
Minus: Can struggle to get out to perimeter shooters defensively
PREDICTION
We broke the streak!
Last game’s correct against-the-spread pick ended a long string of bad predictions, but there’s still a ways to go to even make it back to .500 for the season.
Projecting this contest is a bit tricky too. Oklahoma sacrifices to protect the rim at all costs — so much so that any high ball screen (or even fake one) has put the team into all sorts of rotation, which has led to open three-point attempts over and over for opponents.
The Sooners stuck with this style against Baylor, the second-ranked three-point shooting team in the nation, so don’t expect it to change against KU. That means outside shooting will be important, as those threes for the Jayhawks — at home, no less — should be there for the taking throughout Saturday’s game.
Will KU make them, though? That’s what’s tricky about forecasting basketball, as evidenced by KU’s last two games; the Jayhawks’ 25-point home loss to Texas and 29-point road win over TCU both were greatly impacted by outside shooting.
Defensively, look for Oklahoma to try to make things difficult on David McCormack when he’s in. Reaves should get plenty of high ball screens from big man Kur Kuath — the same sort of attack that led to a few easy baskets during last year’s game at Allen Fieldhouse.
Add in that both teams should have transition opportunities, and I could see this as a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Given the fact that Oklahoma seems unconcerned with allowing open threes, though ... I’ll say KU’s offense is efficient enough to win this one by double digits.
Kansas 82, Oklahoma 71
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
When three-point defense and getting back in transition are opponent weaknesses, it’s tough to go with anyone but Ochai Agbaji here. KU coach Bill Self mentioned Agbaji is battling through a hamstring injury, but said the guard was doing “pretty well” in practice earlier this week. If Agbaji’s healthy, this seems like a good spot for him to score 20-plus points.
Last game prediction: Kansas 72, TCU 63 (Actual: KU 93-64) ✔️
2020-21 record vs. spread: 4-6
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 123-93-3
