Quick Scout: The good — and bad — for KU basketball’s offense going up against TCU
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 6 Kansas at TCU, 9 p.m., Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, Texas
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 9-2
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 62
Point spread: Kansas by 5.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Shot selection: TCU attempts a lot of shots at the rim (where it’s above average shooting-wise) and from three, which means the team does a great job of avoiding overall inefficient mid-range jumpers.
▪ Foul avoidance: The Horned Frogs do not put opponents on the free throw line often, ranking 34th nationally in lowest defensive free throw rate.
▪ Rim protection: Through three Big 12 games, TCU leads the conference in block percentage with swats on 13% of opponents’ two-point tries.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Creating havoc: This year’s TCU team has played a more passive defensive style compared to a year ago, ranking 227th in defensive turnover rate.
▪ Carelessness: The Horned Frogs have turned it over more than an average NCAA team, and that’s even more discouraging considering those numbers came mostly against a weak nonconference schedule.
▪ Allowing close shots: Though TCU has held down opponent field goal shooting numbers at the rim ... 44% of its shots allowed have come from that close area, which is the 19th-highest split nationally.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-11 center Kevin Samuel (No. 21)
Plus: Efficient offensive player who has made 65% of twos this season
Plus: Outstanding shot-blocker
Plus: Excellent rebounder, both ends
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Draws fouls often
Minus: Has been terrible free throw shooter so far (45%)
Minus: More of a role player offensively
Minus: Can struggle to get out to three-point shooters when that’s his defensive matchup
PREDICTION
Let’s be blunt: I have stunk lately.
My errant Kansas vs. Texas pick continued a string of six of seven I’ve gotten wrong against the spread. So it’s your call on whether it’s best to follow my advice — or strategically go against it.
Anyways ... the spread appears just off the projections, as KenPom’s numbers like KU by four, while Torvik’s favor the Jayhawks by roughly 2 1/2.
TCU’s defensive profile against a Bill Self team would be trouble in most years. The fact that the Horned Frogs allow a lot of shots at the rim typically would play right into a KU strength, though that hasn’t been the case this season, with Self talking extensively Monday about his team’s difficulties in that aspect.
Though TCU does a good job of limiting threes, it’s not quite as stingy in that area as Texas was. And another encouraging sign for the Jayhawks: Opponents have made just 16 of 66 “unguarded” spot-up shots against the Horned Frogs this season via Synergy, which means TCU’s defensive numbers have been propped up some by the good luck of opponents missing shots.
Defensively, I actually like the matchup for KU. Samuel could present issues on cuts and offensive rebounds, but he’s not someone the Jayhawks should have to worry about completely taking over with his limited offensive role.
TCU also relies a lot on passes to free up shooters, and KU’s switching defensive style has done a great job this season of coaxing opponents more into one-on-one situations. If the Horned Frogs can’t play their typical style and are forced into additional individual play-making, that could easily lead to a higher number of turnovers, which also would help KU get a few easy transition points on the other end.
KU will undoubtedly shoot better from three than it did against Texas, and it should be able to better capitalize on TCU’s defensive mistakes on the perimeter than previous opponents did. Add in that home court will be reduced — the Horned Frogs allow 1,600 fans at home games — and I like the Jayhawks for a bounce-back effort here.
Kansas 72, TCU 63
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas.
HAWK TO ROCK
Maybe this should be renamed the Jalen Wilson section, but this appears to be the right answer again. If KU goes to its five-guard lineup against TCU, Wilson will love his matchup against Samuel while forcing the big man to an uncomfortable spot on the perimeter. Wilson also should be able to handle that defensive assignment just fine as long as he can battle on the defensive glass as he has most games this season. Look for Wilson to be a catalyst offensively while leading KU in scoring for a second straight game.
Last game prediction: Kansas 71, Texas 62 (Actual: Texas 84-59) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 3-6
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 122-93-3
This story was originally published January 5, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
