Quick Scout: Here’s one KU Jayhawks advantage — and one unknown — as it faces Texas
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 8 Texas at No. 3 Kansas, 11 a.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 7-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 9
Point spread: Kansas by 4.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Athleticism: Texas coach Shaka Smart has a roster filled, for the most part, with tall guys who have excellent running and jumping ability.
▪ Three-point defense: Though Luke Yaklich has moved on from Texas’ associate head coach to Illinois-Chicago coach this season, his defensive style lives on in Austin; the Longhorns do not over-help defensively and are eighth-best nationally at limiting opponents’ three-point attempts.
▪ Offensive rebounding: This is where the Longhorns’ athleticism plays up most, as the team ranks 57th nationally when it comes to getting missed shots back.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Fouling: Texas — because it doesn’t over-help often — puts pressure on its guys to defend one-on-one, which has been part of the reason opponents have had success getting fouled this season (the Longhorns rank 293rd in defensive free-throw rate).
▪ Half-court offense: Though the Longhorns’ athleticism plays up on fastbreaks, the team has struggled overall in slow-it-down situations, ranking 206th in adjusted field-goal percentage in non-transition settings.
▪ Three-point shooting: Maybe “weakness” is a touch strong — Texas isn’t horrible on threes — but the Longhorns remain below average on them while firing up a high volume of those attempts.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-9 forward Greg Brown (No. 4)
Plus: Consensus top-10 recruit coming into season
Plus: Takes on huge offensive role when he’s in
Plus: Strong rebounder, both ends
Plus: Team’s best shot-blocker by wide margin
Plus: Gets fouled often
Minus: Has been overall inefficient player thanks to poor three-point shooting (though he’s made 8 of 21 in last three games)
Minus: Extremely foul prone
Minus: Has some issues with turnovers
PREDICTION
Let’s start with the uncertainty in this matchup: Texas coach Shaka Smart said Friday that “a guy or two” on the Longhorns’ roster would not be making the trip to Lawrence because of COVID-related reasons. Texas has a relatively deep bench, so this might not hurt the Longhorns as much as it would other teams, but it still could potentially be a big deal if Smart has to go without someone (or two) in his rotation.
Without taking that into account ... the projection systems lean Texas against the spread here. KenPom’s numbers like KU to win by three, while Bart Torvik’s have the Jayhawks winning by a point.
There’s reason to think KU could struggle some offensively. The Jayhawks relied heavily on their three-point shooting in their last victory over West Virginia, and those attempts shouldn’t be as easy to come by against the Longhorns, who make it a priority to stick with shooters.
Though Texas has allowed a lot of shots at the rim, it also has done a decent job holding down shooting percentages there, even if the team’s shot-blocking has been lower than what you’d expect given the overall height on the roster.
The Jayhawks, though, should have two big aspects playing in their favor: They are playing at home, and they should be the more physical team.
Texas struggled most in its previous close win against Oklahoma State when the Cowboys muscled up. To take advantage of defenders who hesitate to help, KU should look to attack driving angles while striving to win one-on-one matchups to get shots inside or draw contact at the rim.
That also could lead to success in another area: offensive rebounding. Texas has only been average on the defensive glass through eight games, meaning KU should have the opportunity for second-chance points if it keeps an aggressive mindset.
The setting should help as well. KU will have 2,500 fans as opposed to the typical 16,300, but that should still be enough to influence some officials’ calls, which could allow the Jayhawks to battle inside without as much fear of foul trouble.
Add in that Texas has struggled some to score in the halfcourt — and KU has done an excellent job of not allowing transition opportunities lately — and I could see a low-scoring game where KU pulls away by overpowering Texas in the lane.
Kansas 71, Texas 62
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas.
HAWK TO ROCK
Texas’ relative defensive weaknesses seem to match up great with the skill-set Jalen Wilson possesses. Wilson should have opportunities to get past bigger defenders on drives while also having chances to pick up easy points on the offensive glass with his strength and competitiveness. Look for the freshman to lead KU in scoring Saturday.
Last game prediction: West Virginia 75, Kansas 72 (Actual: Kansas 79-65) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 3-5
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 122-92-3
