Quick Scout: Why KU Jayhawks basketball could expose this North Dakota State flaw
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: North Dakota State at No. 7 Kansas, 3 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 0-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 198
Point spread: Kansas by 24.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Defensive rebounding: Coach Dave Richman’s team, which led the nation in defensive rebounding percentage a year ago, has also been strong in that area so far this season (23rd nationally).
▪ Size: North Dakota State shouldn’t have a problem matching up height-wise with KU; the Bison rank 30th in average height and have no starters shorter than 6-3.
▪ Foul avoidance: This has been a Richman staple as well, with North Dakota State ranking top 50 in limiting opponents’ free-throw attempts each of the last two seasons.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Transition offense: The Bison really like to slow down the tempo offensively, and probably for good reason; the team ranks 281st (out of 283 teams) in adjusted field-goal percentage on fastbreaks.
▪ Creating havoc: North Dakota State plays an extremely cautious defensive style which rarely creates turnovers or steals.
▪ Two-point shooting: The Bison have been inaccurate on both shots at the rim (258th nationally) and in the mid-range (265th) so far.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-10 forward Rocky Kreuser (No. 34)
Plus: Strong defensive rebounder
Plus: Excellent passer who has good vision for a center
Plus: Will shoot and make threes; must be respected on perimeter
Plus: Takes on large offensive role
Minus: Forces shots in mid-range and has been horrible shooter there (2 for 12)
Minus: Prone to both foul and turnover issues
PREDICTION
I don’t see much hope for North Dakota State keeping this one close, outside of two factors.
One is fatigue. This will be the KU’s’ fifth game in 10 days, while North Dakota State has had six days’ rest following an 11-point loss at Creighton on Sunday.
Tempo also could be a factor. The Bison’s natural style is to slow things down while trying to make the opponent work defensively, and on the surface, reducing possessions is a desirable quality for an underdog that enters Allen Fieldhouse.
I’ve got to be honest, though: I think North Dakota State has been pretty lucky to have not lost by bigger margins than it has its first three games. The team has struggled especially with pick-and-roll defense, both with stopping dribble drives and also recovering late to perimeter shooters ... before getting bailed out when opponents have simply missed open attempts.
Transition defense has been a problem too. And not only that, North Dakota State’s deliberate offense hasn’t done a great job of creating good looks at the basket.
KU — if it wants them — should get lots of open three-point attempts, with those likely coming from the team’s best shooters.
Even with an average shooting night, I could see KU running away with this one early.
Kansas 86, North Dakota State 56
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas.
HAWK TO ROCK
North Dakota State allowed Creighton’s two best spot-up shooters — Mitch Ballock and Marcus Zegarowski — a combined 20 three-point attempts in the team’s previous loss. That means every Jayhawk should be looking to drive and kick to Christian Braun, who will probably be more open this game than any other.
Last game prediction: Kansas 91, Washburn 63 (Actual: Kansas 89-54)
2020-21 record vs. spread: 2-1
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 121-88-3
This story was originally published December 5, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
