Quick Scout: Why the KU vs. Kentucky line appears to be veering away from projections
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 7 Kansas vs. No. 20 Kentucky, 8:30 p.m. Central, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 1-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 21
Point spread: KU by 4 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Offensive rebounding: Some of Kentucky’s best offense is errant shots, as the team has grabbed 45 percent of its misses (seventh nationally) while posting 1.17 points per possession on putback attempts, according to Synergy.
▪ Length: Kentucky is the tallest team in the nation, according to KenPom’s average height measure, and has displayed above-average shot-blocking thus far.
▪ Transition defense: The Wildcats, who were second nationally in holding down opponents’ transition shooting percentages last season, have allowed some fast-break opportunities this year but are giving up just 0.58 points per possession on those play types, according to Synergy’s logs.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Three-point shooting: Kentucky was 0-for-10 from three-point range in its last loss against Richmond, and in general, the Wildcats do not shoot many perimeter attempts.
▪ Experience: Coach John Calipari does not have a single player in his rotation who played for the Wildcats a season ago.
▪ Stopping dribble penetration: Richmond in particular diced up Kentucky’s defense off the bounce; in two games, the Wildcats have allowed opponents to make 77% percent of their shots at the rim, and 83% when those attempts have gone unblocked.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-7 guard Brandon (B.J.) Boston (No. 3)
Plus: Has been team’s go-to player offensively
Plus: Loves to get up shots in transition
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Excellent offensive rebounder
Minus: Has struggled to finish at the rim in half-court settings
Minus: Has gone 0-for-7 from three so far (small sample size, of course)
PREDICTION
This is a tricky spot where the Vegas line disagrees with projection systems ... and I think I actually agree.
KenPom’s projection has KU by three and Bart Torvik’s has the Jayhawks by two, yet there’s reason to think that those are both over-weighting Kentucky just a tad.
The advanced numbers, in general, are going to buoy a team like Kentucky for a while because one of the best ways to project current success is by looking at recent success. Calipari certainly has had that with the Wildcats, which means more sample is needed before this year’s team ranking more reflects its own merits.
And frankly ... Kentucky looked young against Richmond. The Wildcats still have crazy athletes and excellent length, yet they settle for too many mid-range jumpers and also don’t appear to be cohesive defensively yet, as evidenced by the high number of shots (and high percentage) they’ve allowed at the rim so far.
KU certainly hasn’t found itself either yet, but it appears to have more solidified with its team at this point. Marcus Garrett is an outstanding defender. Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun are strong shooters, while Jalen Wilson has given the Jayhawks excellent energy so far.
It sure seems like KU will need to primarily go small to take advantage of Kentucky’s defensive struggles off the dribble. Doing that, however, will undoubtedly open the Wildcats up for a huge advantage on the glass, meaning KU will have to make the most of its shot attempts and also be scrappy on the boards defensively.
I typically don’t like straying too far from the projection systems with my picks, especially when the line has veered a few points away. Having said that ... I think this is a good spot for an exception — even if not by much — based on Kentucky’s inexperience at this early stage.
Kansas 77, Kentucky 70
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas.
HAWK TO ROCK
Jalen Wilson will have a big challenge on the defensive end in KU’s 5-out lineup, but if he holds his own, he has exactly the type of offensive skill-set that gave Kentucky fits against Richmond. Wilson can drive, finish close shots and has also somewhat unexpectedly been a capable passer in the early going. Look for him to lead the Jayhawks in scoring Tuesday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 89, Saint Joseph’s 67 (Actual: Kansas 94-72) ✔️
2020-21 record vs. spread: 2-0
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 121-87-3
