A look back at my 2019-20 KU basketball predictions. It’s time to eat some crow
Before each season, I’m asked to do five bold predictions for Kansas basketball. It’s a fun exercise, and also one I take seriously while hoping to give fans a look at some unexpected story lines that might be ahead.
A look back to this past season’s prognostications and ... woof.
Here’s a quick look back at what I thought would happen with KU, followed by an explanation of how things actually played out.
Prediction: Ochai Agbaji is KU’s second-leading scorer.
How it turned out: Wrong
Agbaji had a fine season, and finished as KU’s third-leading scorer (10 points per game), helped by the fact that he averaged 33 minutes.
He did not crack the top two scoring-wise behind Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike, however, while settling into an offensive role as a secondary option.
This was great for KU as a team. The Jayhawks went 28-3, finished the season No. 1 in nearly every statistical ranking, and had an offense that thrived by leaning heavily on its point guard and center.
Agbaji, though, still leaves one believing he’s probably capable of more. He made an acceptable 34% of his threes last season, but given his sound form and quick release, that number feels like a disappointment, especially considering he made only 28% in conference play.
Maybe I’m still being too unfair to Agbaji here, as evidenced by this fun fact: If Agbaji would have gone 3-for-5 on his next five three-point attempts, he would have had the exact same number of makes and misses as teammate Isaiah Moss, who was considered the team’s sharpshooter.
Having said all that ... I still believed we’d see more offensive production from Agbaji last year.
That’s not stopping me from buying Agbaji stock, though. I’ve already predicted he will be KU’s leading scorer in 2020-21, so a double serving of crow is waiting if my crystal ball fails me here again.
Prediction: Jalen Wilson will be a starter by Big 12 play.
How it turned out: Incomplete
The bet here was that KU coach Bill Self would eventually turn to a four-guard lineup in 2019-20, with Wilson seeming like the most natural player to step into that role. And while that could have been possible — KU did play primarily four guards at the end of the season — Wilson never had a chance to stick in the rotation after breaking his left ankle in the second game, which led to a medical redshirt.
Prediction: Marcus Garrett will be an above-average NCAA three-point shooter.
How it turned out: Wrong
I was at least on the correct track here. Here’s what I originally wrote:
Last year’s NCAA average three-point accuracy was 34%, and that might slip back a percentage point with the line being moved back this year. Garrett shouldn’t have to force threes and can simply take the open ones, which makes me believe that 34% mark is attainable — even if it’d be a huge leap from last season.
With the three-point line moved back, NCAA average three-point shooting went from 34.4% to 33.3%. So right on there.
And Garrett was choosy with his outside shots, attempting just 52 for the year.
This one also appeared to be on a great track after Garrett made six threes at home against Oklahoma in mid-February — raising his accuracy to 36%. But he went cold after that, making just one of eight outside shots in his last six games combined.
The final total: 17-for-52, 32.7%.
In other words, if he’d have just made one more three-pointer for the season, this prediction could have been in the “win” column.
Prediction: KU will have its most non-conference losses (three or more) since 2013.
How it turned out: Wrong
KU’s non-conference schedule was, in fact, brutal. Though the Jayhawks avoided Michigan State in the Maui Invitational, they got upstart Dayton instead, with no one knowing at the time how great of a season the Flyers would have.
Add in Duke, at Villanova, BYU, at Stanford and Colorado, and there was a moment in January when KU was literally lapping the field when it came to strength of schedule.
And yet ... the Jayhawks played some of their best basketball against top opponents while running through their non-con gauntlet with only two losses. If the ball bounced a different way against Dayton in the Maui title game — KU won that one 90-84 in overtime — then the Jayhawks would’ve had their most out-of-Big-12 setbacks since the 2013-14 season.
But they didn’t, going 11-2 instead. So I was wrong.
Again.
Prediction: The Jayhawks will win the Big 12 title ... in a share.
How it turned out: Not right enough.
Picking KU to win the league is not “bold” — KU was the near-unanimous pick by Big 12 coaches — so I added the caveat that I thought this one would come in a share.
I was incorrect, even if my preseason love for Baylor was justified:
I think Self gets it done again this year (15 out of 16 ain’t bad, right?), though I see Baylor coach Scott Drew and his Bears also earning a piece of it as well. Upset special: Look for Drew to get his first win at Allen Fieldhouse ( in 13 tries!) on Jan. 11.
At least the “upset special” hit. Baylor did defeat KU at Allen Fieldhouse in January, only to lose in the rematch. Though the two teams were still tied at 13-1 then, the Bears dropped two of four after that to fall behind the Jayhawks in the final standings.
Thinking Baylor could be good was right on. As was the case with a few of the predictions above, though, I simply wasn’t high enough on KU.
The Jayhawks — preseason No. 3 in the Associated Press poll — managed to exceed expectations by quite a bit.
