One KU player appears on the verge of a breakout ... thanks to two-tenths of a second
When Ochai Agbaji first touched the pass in the corner, Pittsburg State defender Antonio Givens was closer to the three-point line than the lane.
This was in the first half of Kansas’ 102-42 exhibition victory on Thursday, and the sequence that followed took place quickly ... but also is worth another look.
The next moment was important — and also a reason to be optimistic that Agbaji can exceed the expectations both fans and analysts have for him entering this 2019-20 campaign.
Agbaji, even though he wasn’t completely open, rose up for a three-point shot. He was able to get the attempt above Givens, who started in great position for the closeout.
The corner three grazed off the front rim and into the net. It was Agbaji’s first three of the night —he made his first five long-range attempts before finishing 5-for-6 — and the start of a 19-point effort that led KU.
“Tonight, he looked pure,” KU coach Bill Self said of Agbaji’s stroke. “I hope we can bottle that.”
Accuracy, we all know, is going to waver from night to night. Agbaji made 3 of 9 from three in KU’s first exhibition game, and even the world’s best shooters can experience off nights from time to time.
Something else about this play, though, is potentially more important than Agbaji simply seeing the ball go in.
Agbaji, after working over the summer to change his shooting motion, has put himself at a numbers advantage.
One, in fact, that our eyes can struggle to see.
‘Pop Time’
Kirk Goldsberry wrote some about this topic in his recent book, “Sprawlball.” For years, baseball has been obsessed with a catcher’s “pop time,” measuring the number of seconds it takes for a catcher to transfer the ball from his own glove to that of the second baseman on a stolen base attempt.
Why is the calculation so important? Because in baseball — like other sports — every instant counts when you’re competing against the world’s best and fastest athletes.
With this in mind, Goldsberry took the next step to study basketball shooters’ “pop time.” He measured how long it took NBA players to go from first touching the ball to releasing their shots, while realizing that the quickest firers were giving their teams an extra advantage; they were able to put up more threes because their hidden talent allowed them to be “open” more often.
Goldsberry found, on average, that NBA players took 0.831 seconds from first touch to release of their three-point shots.
Which brings us back to Agbaji.
Late last season, the guard could feel himself losing confidence in his jumper. Not only did he make just 7 of 34 threes in his final 10 games (21%), but he also realized he was settling back into the bad habit of dropping the ball down to his knees.
“Growing up, I had that tendency to keep the ball down,” Agbaji said.
The offseason work, then, was important. More than anything, Agbaji says he now focuses on two things when squaring up for a shot: releasing it quicker and holding his follow-through.
The video shows it’s made a significant difference.
The change
No two jumpers are going to be the same, but it’s instructive here to compare Agbaji last year to this year. The passes come from different angles, but in both, Agbaji is closely guarded by a defender, meaning he’s being pressured to get his attempt up quickly.
Notice on the left, in last year’s TCU game, Agbaji dips the ball down low. This year, he only goes to his waist, then lets it go more quickly.
The stopwatch shows a difference too. From first touch to release, Agbaji’s freshman-year shot takes 0.9 seconds, which is just above that NBA average mark.
Thursday’s shot against Pitt State? Only 0.7 seconds.
That doesn’t sound like much, but it’s actually a huge improvement in the shooting world. Agbaji, if he maintained a release that quick, would be above-average with his shot release if he advances to the next level — something that scouts should immediately notice about his game.
There are still uncertainties at this point. It’s at least possible Agbaji could fall back into bad habits, or even hit a shooting slump that makes a quick trigger less beneficial.
If Thursday is repeatable, though, KU’s perceived top weakness — outside shooting — might have more of a solution than many believe.
Agbaji’s offseason work not only has given him additional confidence; it’s also given him an offensive weapon he didn’t have a year ago.
Last year, with Givens that close to him, maybe Agbaji’s three would have been blocked. More likely, Agbaji might have pump-faked and not gotten the attempt off at all.
This time, he fired right over the top, giving KU three points that wouldn’t be available to every player.
Two-tenths of a second, in this case, can make all the difference.
This story was originally published October 31, 2019 at 11:58 PM.
