Quick Scout: Trying to predict KU-Oklahoma State with strange circumstances
Update (11:52 a.m. Thursday): The Big 12 tournaments have been canceled.
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Thursday’s game: Oklahoma State vs. No. 1 Kansas, 1:30 p.m., Sprint Center
TV: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 18-14
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 53
Point spread: Kansas by 11.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
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Sign up3 Strengths
▪ Creating havoc: Oklahoma State ranks 76th in defensive turnover rate and 102nd in steal rate.
▪ Free throws: The Cowboys not only get to the free throw line much more than an average team, but they’re also accurate on those attempts (73%).
▪ Rim protection: Oklahoma State is 40th in defensive block rate, with forward Yor Anei ranking 13th in the individual version of that stat.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Three-point shooting: Oklahoma State attempts fewer threes than an NCAA average team while making just 32% of those tries (266th nationally).
▪ Finishing at the rim: The Cowboys get a lot of close shots but aren’t great at making them, ranking 257th in field goal percentage on those attempts.
▪ Three-point defense: In Big 12 play, Oklahoma State allowed a higher percentage of three-point tries to opponents than any other league team.
Player to watch
6-foot-4 guard Isaac Likekele (No. 13)
Plus: Scored 21 points on 9-for-14 two-point shooting in Wednesday’s win over Iowa State
Plus: Excellent passer
Plus: Team’s best at creating steals
Plus: Gets to the free throw line often
Minus: Overall inefficient player who struggles with turnovers
Minus: Does not shoot threes often (14 attempted this season)
Minus: Poor finisher at the rim
Prediction
I guess we’ll talk strictly basketball here, which is tough to do given all the recent circumstances.
KU will play Oklahoma State in front of almost no fans Thursday at Sprint Center, which is weird to say but likely to impact both teams in similar ways.
Expect the Cowboys to pack it in defensively like they have the last two games. Remember, Oklahoma State coach Mike Boynton might have spoken more positively about center Udoka Azubuike than anyone after the teams’ last matchup, saying the big man should be in the running for national player of the year.
So the Cowboys will likely dare the Jayhawks to make threes. Will KU be able to do that in a mostly empty building?
That’s probably the biggest question in this one.
I think KU wins ... but also think Oklahoma State’s offense will have a better performance than it did in Allen Fieldhouse 2 1/2 weeks ago.
Kansas 69, Oklahoma State 62
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Oklahoma State
Hawk to Rock
Christian Braun has already had two good games against Oklahoma State, and this should be his third. His ability to take advantage of the Cowboys’ sagging defense should come into play again Thursday, as his ability to hit threes while either spotting up or coming off screens gives him a great chance at double-figure scoring.
Last game prediction: Kansas 72, Texas Tech 65 (Actual: KU 66-62) ✔️
2019-20 record vs. spread: 20-11
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 119-87-3
This story was originally published March 12, 2020 at 9:52 AM.
