Quick Scout: The biggest concern for KU basketball vs. Baylor
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 3 Kansas at No. 1 Baylor, 11 a.m., Ferrell Center, Waco, Texas
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 24-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 2
Point spread: Baylor by 2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Half-court defense: Baylor’s defense has allowed the second-lowest adjusted shooting percentage nationally in non-transition settings.
▪ Rim protection: The Bears allow the 11th-fewest percentage of shots at the rim to opponents, while also ranking 12th in block percentage and sixth in the ability to force inefficient mid-range shots.
▪ Offensive rebounding: This is a Scott Drew staple, as his team is fifth in O-board percentage this year after also ranking in the top 10 each of the last five seasons.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Half-court offense: Baylor is 234th (out of 353 Division I teams) when it comes to adjusted shooting percentage on non-fast-break opportunities.
▪ Defensive rebounding: This is about the only area that can be cited as a “weakness” defensively for the Bears, as they’re a below-average team on the defensive glass.
▪ Dealing with shot-blockers: Baylor has had 13% of its two-point attempts blocked — the fourth-highest mark of any team nationally.
Player to Watch
6-foot-3 guard Jared Butler (No. 12)
Plus: Third in KenPom’s Big 12 player of year rankings
Plus: Led Baylor with 22 points in team’s previous road win over KU
Plus: Unquestioned go-to guy offensively
Plus: High-volume, accurate three-point shooter
Plus: Team’s best passer
Minus: Doesn’t create contact/get to the foul line as much as you’d expect
Minus: Not a great finisher in transition
Prediction
Vegas isn’t straying far from the projection systems on this one.
KenPom’s numbers have Baylor by one, while Torvik’s like the Bears by 2 1/2. The two-point spread falls in the middle of those, with home-court advantage providing Baylor the slight edge here among bettors.
These two teams are close to mirror images of each other defensively. Both work to keep teams out of the middle of the floor, playing four switchable guards on the perimeter with a dominant rim protector in back.
The main difference is the amount of pressure applied. Baylor loves to turn up the heat to create steals, but by doing that, it also has left itself more vulnerable on the defensive glass. KU, meanwhile, doesn’t gamble as often for turnovers, but has been a much more consistent team when it comes to clearing away missed shots.
Offensively, KU has been better overall, though Baylor had success in the first meeting; the Bears shot a good percentage from three while also picking on KU guards Isaiah Moss and Christian Braun in isolation settings. The Jayhawks, meanwhile, have looked like a different team offensively the last two games while playing more to open three-point shots ... before knocking those attempts down.
It goes without saying, but this should be a great game. Both teams have proven themselves to be elite this season, and even the smallest of details could end up swinging the result.
The biggest worry for KU has to be turnovers. Those were killers in the first game against Baylor, and they also allowed the Bears to score often while avoiding half-court offense — an area where the team has labored most of the season.
Bill Self should have his team better prepared for the double-teams Baylor will throw at Udoka Azubuike, though, and historically, the KU coach has performed well in these type of slight-underdog settings while winning more than his fair share of close games.
Though I picked Baylor to win the earlier matchup, I’ll take KU by the slightest of margins here.
Kansas 68, Baylor 66
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
Yes, he was held mostly quiet offensively in the first game between these teams, but Udoka Azubuike has the potential for a huge stat line simply because Baylor is a team that doesn’t deal with shot-blockers well. The KU center had a career-high seven swats in 32 minutes during his last game against the Bears, and because Baylor doesn’t draw much contact inside, Azubuike also isn’t likely to face foul trouble. Could Azubuike flirt with a triple-double on Saturday, even in a low-possession game? That’s definitely possible.
Last game prediction: Kansas 78, Iowa State 58 (Actual: KU 91-71) ✅
2019-20 record vs. spread: 17-9
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 116-85-3
This story was originally published February 22, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
