Quick Scout: Will 13th try be lucky for Baylor’s Scott Drew at Allen Fieldhouse?
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 4 Baylor at No. 3 Kansas, noon, Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: CBS
Opponent’s record: 12-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 10
Point spread: Kansas by 7 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Offensive rebounding: Coach Scott Drew has had a top-10 offensive rebounding team in each of the last seven seasons, and this year is no different, as the Bears rank fifth nationally in O-board percentage.
▪ Interior defense: Baylor is ninth in two-point percentage defense, with 6-foot-9 forward Freddie Gillespie providing excellent rim protection in the lane.
▪ Creating havoc: The Bears love to switch guard-to-guard screens and deny passes up top, which has helped the team rank 20th in steal rate and 32nd in defensive turnover percentage.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Shot selection: Baylor takes 33% of its shots from the inefficient mid-range (56th-highest split nationally) and also has been a team that has been bothered significantly by opposing teams’ shot-blockers.
▪ Defensive rebounding: The Bears are slightly below average when it comes to defensive board percentage, as Gillespie is the team’s only player who ranks top 500 nationally in the individual version of the statistic.
▪ Late-clock offense: Though most teams’ shooting percentages go down the further it gets into a possession, Baylor’s numbers are alarmingly low after the team has had the ball for 20 seconds; Synergy’s logs also have the Bears in the fifth percentile nationally when it comes to efficiency in “short clock” situations with four seconds or fewer on the shot clock.
Player to Watch
6-foot-3 guard Jared Butler (No. 12)
Plus: Ranked third in KenPom’s Big 12 player of the year ranking (behind KU’s Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike)
Plus: Unquestioned go-to guy offensively
Plus: Excellent three-point shooter
Plus: Team’s best passer
Plus: Synergy’s logs list him as “excellent” overall defender
Minus: Not a great finisher in transition
Minus: Has struggled to create shots for himself at the rim and doesn’t draw fouls as often as you’d expect
Prediction
It’s good to start where we normally we do with most of these picks: the projection systems.
KenPom has KU by nine, and Bart Torvik’s numbers like the Jayhawks by 10, meaning the computers give the slight lean here against the spread toward the home team.
I have to say, though ... I like Baylor a lot in this particular spot.
The Bears do a great job defensively, and their strength of pressuring out defensively matches up with one of KU’s main offensive weaknesses.
On the other end, the Bears seem like they could be in line for some positive regression after posting awful shooting numbers their last two games. Baylor also is a capable outside shooting team, and that’s a helpful characteristic against this KU defense, which has repeatedly made it difficult for foes inside the arc.
Gillespie will be key as well. In KU’s last home game, West Virginia’s Oscar Tshiebwe showed for a half that it’s at least possible to out-muscle the Jayhawks’ front line for offensive boards. Baylor doesn’t always have the prettiest of half-court offenses, so Gillespie will be important if Baylor wants to avoid long scoring droughts that often turn into game-sealing runs for KU.
Add in the fact that KU’s building could be lacking some energy — there should be some empty seats because of the weather — and Drew appears to have a nice opportunity here to get his first win at Allen Fieldhouse in 13 tries.
Though predicting KU coach Bill Self to lose at home is typically a foolish endeavor ... I’ll go bold here and say that Baylor pulls off the upset.
Baylor 72, Kansas 71
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Baylor
Hawk to Rock
Baylor’s weaknesses include defensive rebounding and going against shot-blockers. That means the strengths of KU center Udoka Azubuike should play up in this matchup, with the 7-footer likely to fill up his statistical line with both rebounds and rejections.
Last game prediction: Kansas 73, Iowa State 64 (Actual: KU 79-53)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 9-5
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 108-81-3
