Quick Scout: Why one KU basketball guard could have a big game vs. TCU
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 3 Kansas at TCU, 11 a.m., Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, Texas
TV: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 13-9
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 78
Point spread: Kansas by 9.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Offensive rebounding: This is coach Jamie Dixon’s No. 1 staple; his team has been top 100 in offensive rebounding percentage each of the last 17 seasons, with this year’s Horned Frogs ranking 31st in O-board percentage.
▪ Creating havoc: TCU is 30th in defensive turnover rate, though those overall numbers have slipped some since Big 12 play began.
▪ Three-point shooting: The Horned Frogs shoot a high number of threes and have kept up their accuracy (35%) even with those additional attempts.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Carelessness: TCU is 294th in offensive turnover percentage while appearing to be a team that has a tendency to overpass in half-court settings.
▪ Transition offense: The Horned Frogs run less than an average team, yet they still rank 286th in adjusted shooting percentage in fast break situations.
▪ Free throws: TCU is not only awful at creating contact to get to the free throw line (312th in offensive free throw rate), but the team also has made just 63% of its freebies, which is 12th-worst nationally.
Player to Watch
6-foot-6 guard Desmond Bane (No. 1)
Plus: Easily team’s most efficient scoring option
Plus: High-volume, accurate three-point shooter
Plus: Strong finisher at the rim
Plus: Above-average passer
Plus: Good defensive rebounder for his size
Minus: Rarely draws fouls offensively
Minus: Synergy’s logs show he has struggled some in pick-and-roll settings defensively
Prediction
The projection systems line up pretty closely with Vegas here.
KenPom’s numbers like KU by 10, while Torvik’s are on the Jayhawks by nine, meaning bettors aren’t straying far from the underlying numbers when it comes to this matchup.
TCU is a tough team to figure out. The Horned Frogs have been killed by three-pointers defensively, yet they’ve done a decent job of limiting attempts there. A quick look at Synergy’s numbers show they also don’t allow a crazy amount of “unguarded” ones, which seems to indicate the team has been hurt by a bit of shooting unluckiness, if we can consider that a thing.
Offensively, the team has been a bit colder lately from three while playing six of its last eight on the road, yet the shooting numbers in Fort Worth haven’t seemed to dip. In fact, in its last five home games, here are TCU’s percentages from three: 58%, 52%, 32%, 40%, 35%.
The Horned Frogs will need those outside shots, because it’ll be tough to score otherwise. TCU is bad in transition, doesn’t get to the foul line and should find it tough to go inside against KU rim-protector Udoka Azubuike.
Defensively, though, I sort of like what TCU has stylistically against KU. The team has a good post defender in Kevin Samuel to go against Azubuike, and it has been excellent containing the ball-handler in pick-and-roll settings, which is an area where Devon Dotson usually thrives.
This seems like it’ll be one of those low-scoring Big 12 games. I like KU to win, but I think TCU will be able to keep it close with strong defense.
Kansas 64, TCU 60
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: TCU
Hawk to Rock
TCU’s defense allows a high number of assists while forcing opponents to find teammates for their open shots. That makes this a great matchup for KU’s best distributor Marcus Garrett, who quietly is second in league play (behind Iowa State’s Tyrese Haliburton) with 5.1 assists per game.
Last game prediction: Kansas 74, Texas 55 (Actual: KU 69-58) ❌
2019-20 record vs. spread: 14-8
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 113-84-3
This story was originally published February 8, 2020 at 6:50 AM.
