KU basketball’s offense is probably better than you think. Here’s why
It’s pretty easy right now to nitpick the flaws with Kansas basketball’s offense.
KU is not a good passing team. The Jayhawks have not been great in transition, and they’ve also been inconsistent from three, making just 32 percent of their perimeter tries in conference play.
Add that all up, and it can leave a casual fan to wonder if KU has enough offensive firepower to be a legitimate Final Four contender.
Luckily for the Jayhawks, all that above lacks some important context.
KU ranks eighth and ninth in two of the most trusted rankings for adjusted offensive efficiency, with those numbers screaming out that this team is better than first appearances — and also perhaps capable of much more ahead.
Here, then, are three reasons KU’s offensive numbers are better than what they first appear:
Competition
Self always loads up his team’s non-conference schedule, but the Jayhawks appear to have even outdone themselves this season.
Nearly every advanced measure out there lists KU with the top schedule in the nation. Not only that, KU’s defensive strength of schedule is No. 1 as well, meaning no team — game in and game out — has had its offense challenged more than these Jayhawks.
The Big 12 conference’s defensive shift this season hasn’t helped offensive numbers either.
Out of the 32 leagues, the Big 12 ranks 29th in offensive efficiency, 28th in adjusted shooting percentage and 28th in turnover percentage. The conference also boasts four of the top 12 defensive teams in Ken Pomeroy’s ranks, with three of those squads (West Virginia, KU, Baylor) in the top four.
A “bad” offensive night, then, should be taken in context. Struggling to score against West Virginia or Baylor is something that almost every opponent has done this season.
It’s worth noting, then, that the Big 12’s top team in terms of offensive efficiency thus far in league games has been ... KU, at 1.06 points per possession. Baylor is second at 1.04.
Pace
Many KU fans are accustomed to the Jayhawks winning games with scores in the 80s and 90s.
That hasn’t been as commonplace this season, mostly because KU has slowed things down.
The Jayhawks have gotten to 80 points just once in nine league games, putting up 81 against Kansas State on Jan. 21.
That doesn’t mean KU has had poor offense, though. After eclipsing 70 possessions in five of the first six games, the Jayhawks have only had 70-plus possessions once since Jan. 1 — in last week’s home victory over Texas Tech.
There are a few factors at play here. For one, as mentioned earlier, this has not been KU’s best transition team, so it has not scored as quickly as many squads of the past.
This also can be seen as a compliment to KU’s defense. The Jayhawks are forcing opponents to use an average of 18.3 seconds per shot attempt, which ranks in the top 25 longest times nationally. In general, that’s the sign of a defense that’s not fouling often and also making it difficult for the other team to score quickly when the defense might be unset.
Whatever the causes ... KU is simply not getting the ball as much as it has in previous years. That might mean the scoring average doesn’t stand out — KU is at 75.7 points per game this year and is exactly where it finished a season ago — but that’s actually more impressive considering the Jayhawks are doing that while getting the ball about three fewer times per game.
Shooting luck?
KU’s offense actually has had one standout positive trend over the last few weeks.
The Jayhawks, who were haunted by giveaways in each of their three losses, have been below their season average for turnover percentage in each of their last seven games.
So why hasn’t the offense had a noticeable uptick?
The simple answer: The improvement has coincided with the Jayhawks’ worst three-point shooting of the season.
KU, in its last seven contests, has shot better than 35 percent from three only once. That’s even more notable considering the fact that the Jayhawks are mostly taking wide-open outside attempts thanks to the pressure that Udoka Azubuike and Devon Dotson put on opponents inside.
Self even noted at Thursday’s press conference that in Big 12 play, three of his starting players had shot 21 percent (Marcus Garrett), 27 percent (Ochai Agbaji) and 29 percent (Dotson) from three.
“In a small sample size of nine games, we haven’t shot it very well,” Self said. “But I know that we’re better shooters than that.”
And here’s where one can potentially see more growth from KU.
The Jayhawks, in all likelihood, are a better team from three-point range than their 35 percent mark for the season. Those shots are especially crucial for this team too, as once KU’s players prove they can make them, it will potentially stretch out the defense to create more space inside for both Dotson and Azubuike.
Even a small improvement in three-point percentage could bring a huge boost to KU’s offense, simply because those shots are essentially boom-or-bust plays. Even two more made threes per game would be significant, and also could take some stress off a KU defense that has had to grind often in recent games to come away with victories.
It’s probably tough for many observers — including Self — to believe that this team is performing at a top-10 level nationally.
So far, though, that’s been true, and mostly because of some unique circumstances that have come about this particular season.
Perhaps even more encouraging for the Jayhawks: The strong bet here would be to expect the team’s offense to improve from this point forward, with KU’s biggest flaw coming in the form of shooting streakiness that usually sorts itself out over time.
KU has two elite scoring options inside. It’s also improving its turnover percentage, while getting to the free-throw line a healthy amount.
Add in a few more threes, and this team seems primed for better days ahead.
Even if the present hasn’t been that bad either.
This story was originally published February 7, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
