Quick Scout: Texas has one strength offensively; can KU take it away again?
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: Texas at No. 3 Kansas, 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 14-7
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 68
Point spread: Kansas by 14 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Three-point shooting: Texas shoots a lot of threes, and it leads the Big 12 during conference play with 37% accuracy there.
▪ Three-point defense: The Longhorns are fifth nationally when it comes to restricting opponents’ perimeter attempts.
▪ Forcing tough twos: Texas’ defense has coaxed other teams into the inefficient mid-range often; 34% of opponents’ shots have been there, which is the 29th-highest split for a defense nationally.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Defensive rebounding: Texas is 335th in D-board percentage and has been the Big 12’s worst in this stat since league play began.
▪ Creating contact: We talked about Texas’ non-physical style in last Quick Scout, and that tendency still remains, as the Longhorns’ are a bottom-three team nationally in free throw creation.
▪ Ball security: Texas is a careless team offensively, ranking 276th in offensive turnover rate with guards that have struggled to make the correct plays and reads in pick-and-roll settings.
Player to Watch
6-foot-9 forward Jericho Sims (No. 20)
Plus: Scored career-high 20 points in last game vs. KU on Jan. 29
Plus: Efficient overall player
Plus: Outstanding finisher at the rim
Plus: Good shot-blocker
Plus: Strong rebounder, both ends
Minus: Reliant on others for his points; doesn’t often create shots for himself
Minus: Does not shoot threes
Prediction
KU continues to get slightly more respect from the projection systems than sports bettors.
KenPom’s numbers have KU by 17 and Torvik’s have the Jayhawks by 16, which again makes for a few-point separation here when that gap is typically smaller.
KU did a nice job of limiting Texas’ threes in the last matchup, but that doesn’t mean the Longhorns won’t be gunning in this one. Really, it’s Texas’ best way to compete considering its strengths offensively and also the excellent rim-protection KU has shown recently.
Offensively, expect the Longhorns to take away the Jayhawks’ three-point shooters just like last time. Texas defensive coordinator Luke Yaklich’s style is to stay with shooters while forcing opponents to win away from the perimeter, so it should be a test for KU’s guards to make the correct passes on time and target while trying to make this a dunk contest inside.
This should be a low-possession game, with both teams not performing great on fast breaks so far. KU will have to lock down defensively to get a cover, but I think the Jayhawks will be able to do it while going against a one-dimensional offense.
Kansas 74, Texas 55
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
Udoka Azubuike should be plenty motivated following one of his worst games of the season Saturday, and he has a dream matchup here against a team that will be hesitant to double-team him inside and also will allow him plenty of opportunities on the offensive glass if he’s turned up. Seems like a good spot for a 20-plus-point double-double for KU’s big man.
Last game prediction: Kansas 75, Texas Tech 62 (Actual: KU 78-75) ❌
2019-20 record vs. spread: 14-7
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 113-83-3
This story was originally published February 3, 2020 at 10:50 AM.
