Quick Scout: Why one Bill Self keystone could be critical for KU against Texas
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 6 Kansas at Texas, 1 p.m., Erwin Center, Austin, Texas
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 12-4
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 57
Point spread: Kansas by 7.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Three-point prevention: This is new Texas assistant coach Luke Yaklich’s specialty; the Longhorns generally sticking to outside shooters without overhelping, which has resulted in them ranking 10th nationally in three-point attempt restriction.
▪ Rim protection: Texas is 27th in two-point percentage allowed and also is 54th in field-goal percentage defense on shots at the rim.
▪ Three-point shooting: The Longhorns attempt a lot of threes while still shooting above NCAA average from that location (34%).
3 Weaknesses
▪ Drawing fouls: Texas has one of the lowest offensive free throw rates in the nation, which typically indicates a team that is not comfortable with physicality.
▪ Defensive rebounding: This is basically the Longhorns’ only defensive weakness, but it’s a glaring one, as the team ranks 281st in D-board percentage.
▪ Carelessness: Texas is 238th in offensive turnover percentage and has especially had issues with giveaways in pick-and-roll settings.
Player to Watch
6-foot-2 guard Matt Coleman (No. 2)
Plus: Outstanding three-point shooter
Plus: Team’s best passer
Plus: 78% career free throw shooter
Plus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “very good” overall defender
Plus: Ranks fifth in Big 12 steal rate during conference play
Minus: Struggles to finish at rim, both in transition and half-court
Minus: Has been below average efficiency-wise when attempting to create out of pick-and-rolls
Prediction
This is a tricky contest to predict based on the two teams’ styles.
For KU, the hope is to make this all about toughness and strength. Coach Bill Self values those qualities, and the Jayhawks could dominate this one if they’re able to impose their will with aggressive defense on the perimeter and overwhelming rebounding inside.
Texas, meanwhile, has some strengths that potentially match up well against KU. One of the best ways to score against the Jayhawks is to shoot threes, and the Longhorns don’t hesitate to fire those up. They also pressure defensively (KU has had some problems with this) and might not have as many turnover issues on the offensive end given the fact that KU has been ultra-conservative in that area through four Big 12 games.
KU point guard Devon Dotson appears to be a gametime decision, and if he sits out again because of his hip injury, that would only put more strain on the Jayhawks’ guards to play extended minutes, meaning they might not be able to push out defensively the way Self would prefer.
Three-point shooting is obviously the wild card, and there’s a path where shots not going down for Texas — combined with the team’s rebounding issues — would result in KU pulling away.
Assuming average shooting luck, though, I think Texas can keep this competitive to the end. This feels like one of those “Self’s team guts out a close one” victories, which would leave me taking KU for the win, but Texas for the cover.
Kansas 65, Texas 62
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Texas
Hawk to Rock
I actually like this particular spot for David McCormack quite a bit. He’s a great offensive rebounder — that lines up with a Texas deficiency — and should be able adequately defend the Longhorns’ 4 men, who shoot some threes but not a large volume of them. Add in the fact that Self will likely want to turn this into a bruising affair to make Texas uncomfortable, and McCormack appears to be in good position to have his first 20-plus-minute game since Villanova on Dec. 21.
Last game prediction: Kansas 78, Oklahoma 64 (Actual: KU 66-52)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 11-5
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 110-81-3
This story was originally published January 18, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
