Quick Scout: KU-Texas Tech has projection systems, Vegas leaning different ways
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: Texas Tech at No. 3 Kansas, 3 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 13-7
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 23
Point spread: Kansas by 9.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Creating havoc: Texas Tech’s defense ranks 14th nationally in turnover rate and fourth in non-steal turnover rate; the latter is typically the sign of a team that takes a lot of charges.
▪ Interior defense: The Red Raiders are 43rd in two-point percentage defense, ranking decently in shot-blocking while also forcing a large number of shots in the inefficient mid-range area.
▪ Free throws: Texas Tech does an excellent job of getting to the foul line, and the team also has produced once there, making 77 percent of its freebies.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Carelessness: Texas Tech ranks 236th in turnover rate while also posting the worst league mark in this stat of any Big 12 school.
▪ Fouling: The Red Raiders have been consistent with being a bit hack-happy recently, ranking between 265th and 273rd nationally in defensive free-throw rate each of the last three seasons.
▪ Three-point shooting: Maybe this isn’t a blatant “weakness,” but it’s not a strength for Texas Tech either; the team shoots fewer threes than NCAA average while making 33 percent of those attempts, as the Red Raiders have no true perimeter threats outside of Jahmi’us Ramsey and Davide Moretti.
Player to Watch
6-foot-4 guard Jahmi’us Ramsey (No. 3)
Plus: First-ever Rivals five-star basketball recruit who signed with Texas Tech
Plus: Ranked 25th in ESPN’s latest 2020 NBA mock draft
Plus: Go-to guy offensively
Plus: 41 percent three-point shooter
Plus: Excellent scorer in transition
Minus: Doesn’t draw as many fouls as you’d expect
Minus: Poor finisher at the rim in half-court settings
Prediction
Just like KU’s last game, the projection systems are quite a bit off from the Vegas line in this one.
Both Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik’s numbers like KU by 12 against Texas Tech, while the spread has remained steady with KU as a nine-point favorite.
This is a bit surprising. Not only are the Jayhawks back to (mostly) full strength with David McCormack returning from a two-game suspension, but they also have gotten some rest with five days of break between Big Monday and now.
One reason for KU to be worried: Texas Tech’s defensive fingerprint has given the 2019-20 Jayhawks problems before. Specifically, KU has struggled in previous losses against teams with switchable guards that pressure out on the perimeter; Duke and Baylor immediately come to mind as opponents who were successful playing that style.
A big concern for Texas Tech, though, has to be the setting. KU certainly has a strong home-court advantage at Allen Fieldhouse, but quietly, Texas Tech is showing an even greater home-away split, ranking third in KenPom’s measure for home-court advantage.
The inverse of that means the Red Raiders have not been a great road team. They’re 1-3 in those contests this season, which has included “upset” defeats against both DePaul and TCU.
Whistles could be a factor too. Texas Tech fouls a lot, and this KU team is better than many of Coach Bill Self’s recent squads at getting to the free-throw line.
In the end, I’ll side with the projections here, believing the combination of good home team/bad road team will be enough for KU to stretch this to a double-digit margin.
Kansas 75, Texas Tech 62
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
No need to overthink this one. KU’s most efficient player when it comes to drawing fouls and making free throws is Devon Dotson, and he also had some extra time this week to rest up his nagging hip injury. Dotson will have to be wary of Texas Tech’s help defense — overdriving can get you charge calls quickly — but his speed should still allow him to produce plenty of opportunities at both the rim and free-throw line.
Last game prediction: Kansas 71, Oklahoma State 59 (Actual: KU 65-50) ✅
2019-20 record vs. spread: 14-6
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 113-82-3
This story was originally published February 1, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
