Quick Scout: Why projection systems and Vegas disagree on the KU-Oklahoma State line
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: No. 3 Kansas at Oklahoma State, 8 p.m., Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Oklahoma
TV: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 10-9
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 77
Point spread: Kansas by 7.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Transition defense: Oklahoma State is the rare team that allows a lot of transition opportunities to opponents yet thrives in limiting damage there, ranking seventh in adjusted shooting percentage defense in those situations.
▪ Rim protection: The Cowboys make it tough for opponents at the rim, ranking 35th in close-shot defensive field goal percentage and 41st in block rate.
▪ Creating havoc: Oklahoma State is top 75 nationally in both defensive turnover percentage and steal rate.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Three-point shooting: It’s a bit shocking Oklahoma State has taken such a significant step back here after doing so well a season ago; the team shoots about an average number of threes while making only 31% of them (276th nationally).
▪ Mid-range shooting: The Cowboys are 326th in accuracy on two-point jumpers away from the rim, while also ranking in Synergy’s 1st percentile on all spot-up attempts as a whole.
▪ Three-point defense: Oklahoma State, which mixes in zone about a third of the time, ranks 342nd in three-point restriction — allowing almost the same number of three-pointers on a rate basis as KU’s defense does.
Player to Watch
6-foot-10 forward Yor Anei (No. 14)
Plus: Has emerged as elite shot-blocker
Plus: Strong rebounder, both ends
Plus: Gets fouled often and is 74% free throw shooter
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Overall efficient option
Minus: Extremely foul prone
Minus: Struggles more on shots at the rim than you’d expect
Minus: Does not shoot threes
Prediction
The projection systems at KenPom and Torvik both like KU by 10, so the Jayhawks only being favored by seven is likely a reaction to the factors you’d expect.
For one, KU will be short-handed again without the suspended David McCormack and Silvio De Sousa. Though Udoka Azubiuke is more equipped now with his offseason weight loss to take on a greater minutes load, Saturday’s game against Tennessee showed just how much of a disaster it can be for the Jayhawks when the big man is off the court; KU was plus-19 during Azubuike’s 27 minutes and minus-13 without him.
There’s also recent history to factor in. KU coach Bill Self has often struggled at Oklahoma State, with the Jayhawks losing four of their last six games at Gallagher-Iba Arena. The betting history at Odds Shark also shows that the Jayhawks have gone just 1-5 against the spread in those same six road contests.
Another scary factor here for KU is three-point shooting. The Jayhawks will need to fire them up against the Cowboys — that’s where Oklahoma State’s defense is weakest — yet KU hasn’t had much success with them lately, which means confidence could potentially be an issue if the first few don’t go down.
I still like the Jayhawks overall in this spot. Oklahoma State — despite an uptick in scoring the last two games — has major offensive issues, and the Jayhawks’ switchable perimeter defense should create lots of half-court problems for a Cowboys team that shouldn’t be able to rely on its outside shooting.
There is the potential for Oklahoma State’s Anei or Cameron McGriff to get Azubuike in foul trouble, which should be a KU concern. The Jayhawks’ starting four guards, however, could make them more apt to space the floor while shooting threes, which could lead to a desirable outcome against this particular inside-out defense.
I’ll say KU’s offense plays well enough for a comfortable victory.
Kansas 71, Oklahoma State 59
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
McGriff has been a subpar defender this season according to Synergy’s logs, and if plays the 4 next to Anei, he’ll likely have to get matched up defensively against KU’s Marcus Garrett. If that happens, Garrett should have lots of opportunities for both drives and wide-open threes, meaning he could become one of KU’s top scoring options Monday simply based on the matchup.
Last game prediction: Kansas 66, Tennessee 58 (Actual: KU 74-68) ✅
2019-20 record vs. spread: 13-6
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 112-82-3
This story was originally published January 27, 2020 at 12:16 PM.
