Here’s what KU basketball and its starting point guard have in common this season
Advanced stats expert Ken Pomeroy has his own version of the college basketball player of the year ranking, calling it kPOY while saying the inputs are relatively simple.
First, he looks at a player’s value. Then he looks at the strength of that person’s team.
Put those two together in a fancy formula, and out pops a number — one that helps us to better understand exactly what we’re watching, even if our eyes might try to deceive us.
The 2019-20 college basketball regular season has about a month left. Most teams have about 20 games of sample size.
And Pomeroy’s rating — at this moment, including stats from Kansas’ 74-68 victory over Tennessee — has KU point guard Devon Dotson as the national player of the year.
I asked Pomeroy about this Saturday. What is it about Dotson that is convincing the spreadsheets he’s better than every other guy out there?
“He’s the team MVP and he’s on one of the best teams in the country,” Pomeroy told me. “It also doesn’t hurt that no obvious candidate has emerged.”
There’s a lot of validity to what Pomeroy said, speaking to a truth about both Dotson and this KU basketball team.
In other years, Dotson might not be considered among college’s best players. And other instances, KU might not be seen as the nation’s best team.
Judging based only on past years, though, misses the point.
Comparison, in this case, can be the thief of joy.
And in this 2019-20 season, no one has played as well through 19 games as this KU squad ... with perhaps no player having as good a season as Dotson is for the Jayhawks.
Pomeroy expanded on why Dotson has moved to the top of the kPOY leaderboard while bringing up a pair of stats, as one of the best ways to gauge individual offensive production is by looking at two numbers alongside each other: offensive rating and usage percentage.
These terms are easier to understand than they first sound. Offensive rating is simply one’s personal efficiency — how many points per 100 possessions he produces — while usage percentage is how much offensive load that player takes on.
These numbers are linked together often for a simple reason: It’s hard to rank well in both. As a player takes on a greater offensive role, he’s forced to take more difficult shots, meaning only elite players can keep up efficiency as their play-making volume increases.
This is where we get to Dotson. Here’s a comparison of his offensive rating and usage percentage to that of teammate Udoka Azubuike.
| O-rating | Usage% | |
| Dotson | 114.1 | 27.4 |
| Azubuike | 114.9 | 21.6 |
Both players are having excellent years offensively. Yet Dotson’s production is actually much more impressive considering he’s basically matching Azubuike’s efficiency while playing with additional assertiveness.
So how is Dotson accomplishing this? Perhaps not surprisingly, he’s done it by excelling in some areas that are often difficult to appreciate in real-time.
Dotson does a great job of getting to the free-throw line and has made 82 percent of his shots there. He’s also improved his passing recently — he had seven assists Saturday — and rarely gives it away, with his last three-plus-turnover game coming way back in November.
Saturday’s game showed the potential for even more. Though Dotson hasn’t always had the best vision — especially in pick-and-roll settings — he was an outstanding distributor in the first half against Tennessee, racking up five assists then while using his penetrating ability to free up both Azubuike inside and three-point shooters on the perimeter.
“When he was driving, getting downhill, they just close in on the lane,” KU guard Ochai Agbaji said. “That left shooters out wide. Nothing else you can ask for from him.”
Pomeroy’s numbers have listed Dotson as “Game MVP” in each of KU’s last three contests since he sat out with a hip injury. He’s done that even though, at certain points in games, it’s obvious that he’s still gutting things out through pain.
“As long as I’m playing, I’m not going to make excuses,” Dotson said of his hip. “It’s fine.”
Yes, KU fans loved Frank Mason. And Devonté Graham was fun to watch too.
Comparing Dotson to those guys might seem natural then, but in actuality, it’s also a bit unfair.
Dotson will likely never have the “bulldog” mentality that Mason did. And he’ll also never show the over-the-top, easy-to-like personality that Graham displayed during his four years in Lawrence.
That shouldn’t be counted against Dotson. There’s no going back in time, and besides that, his overall statistical production — when you include defense — is on pace to match up favorably even with best seasons that Mason and Graham had previously.
Any KU fans still longing for the good ol’ days could potentially be missing out on something great in the present.
Both these statements are true: Dotson should be considered a first-team All-America candidate, and KU should be seen as one of the favorites to win the national title.
Maybe that wouldn’t have been true two or four or six years ago, with different players and teams in the running.
Doesn’t matter. The backdrop that both Dotson and KU should be judged upon is right here in 2020.
And in this moment, there are few teams trending better than these Jayhawks — with Dotson an invaluable part of that overall success.
